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The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

Johnson favored to win Monster Mile
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 9/30/2012  at  3:48:00 AM
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NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
AAA 400

Sunday, September 30 – 1:00 p.m. EDT
Dover International Speedway – Dover, DE

The Chase for the Cup moves to Delaware on Sunday as the NASCAR drivers rev up their engines at Dover International Speedway, better known to race fans as “The Monster Mile.” This intermediate track, completed in 1969, is a one-mile oval with 24-degree turns and straights of nine degrees. The frontstretch and backstretch are each 1,076 feet, or 0.204 miles.

Odds to Win Race

DriverOdds
Jimmie Johnson9-to-2
Kyle Busch8-to-1
Matt Kenseth8-to-1
Brad Keselowski10-to-1
Kasey Kahne10-to-1
Jeff Gordon10-to-1
Greg Biffle12-to-1
Denny Hamlin12-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr.12-to-1
Carl Edwards12-to-1
Tony Stewart12-to-1
Kevin Harvick15-to-1
Clint Bowyer15-to-1
Martin Truex Jr.15-to-1
Mark Martin20-to-1
FIELD (Any other driver)50-to-1
Marcos Ambrose60-to-1
Ricky Stenhouse60-to-1
Joey Logano60-to-1
Ryan Newman75-to-1
Regan Smith100-to-1
Bobby Labonte100-to-1
Danica Patrick100-to-1
Aric Almirola100-to-1
Sam Hornish Jr.100-to-1
Jamie McMurray100-to-1
Paul Menard100-to-1
Juan Pablo Montoya100-to-1
Jeff Burton100-to-1
Kurt Busch100-to-1

Drivers to Watch

Jimmie Johnson (9/2) - Sometimes you have to take the chalk, especially if it’s a red-hot Jimmie Johnson at Dover, where he’s won seven times with 10 top-5’s and 15 top-10’s in 21 starts at this track. Since 2009, his finishes at Dover are: 1st, 1st, 16th, 2nd, 9th and 1st. He also has three 2nd-place finishes in his past five races this year, and has led an average of 232 laps over his past seven starts in 2012. The payoff isn’t stellar, but Johnson is clearly worth your largest wager on Sunday.

Matt Kenseth (8/1) - Like Johnson, Kenseth has the right mixture of recent success at Dover and also this season. He’s placed worse than fifth just once in his past nine races at The Monster Mile, finishing 3rd, 1st, 5th, 3rd, 18th, 4th, 3rd, 4th, 2nd and 5th. And for the season he’s knocked out three top-9’s in his past seven starts. He’s certainly worthy of a sizable wager on Sunday.

Ryan Newman (75/1) - In terms of sheer value on the board, you have to take a flier on longshot Ryan Newman, who has three career wins at Dover. Yes, those wins were back in 2003 and 2004 in the back-to-back-to-back variety, but he also has eight other top-10’s at The Monster Mile. Speaking of top-10’s, Newman has also eight top-10 finishes in his pas 11 starts this season, including three in a row (8th, 5th and 10th). At 75-to-1, you can’t just ignore the huge payoff potential here.

Clint Bowyer (15/1) - He continues to be a legitimate Chase contender by placing among the top-8 in six of his past eight races. This includes a win three weeks ago and a 4th-place showing at Loudon last week. Bowyer has also cranked out three straight top-8 finishes at Dover, placing fifth in the race earlier this year. At 15-to-1 odds, he is a strong play for Sunday.

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