Saturday, October 13 – 11:15 p.m. ET HSBC Arena – Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Minotauro Nogueira (33-7-1) vs. Dave Herman (21-4)
Heavyweight bout Line: Nogueira -340, Herman +260
Two fighters coming off losses will look to redeem themselves as Minotauro Nogueira and Dave Herman enter the Octagon for a heavyweight bout on UFC 153’s main card Saturday night in Brazil.
Nogueira fell via submission in his last bout to Frank Mir, a fight that only lasted 3:38. That was his second career loss to Mir, with wins against Brendan Schaub and Randy Couture and a loss to Cain Velasquez in between. His first loss to Mir forced him to give up the interim UFC heavyweight belt, a title he won by beating Tim Sylvia in the previous fight. Herman is no slouch though—he began his career with about as much noise as possible, winning 15 consecutive fights with none of them going to the final bell. He is 1-2 since joining UFC with an impressive TKO victory against John-Olav Einemo before knockout losses to top contenders Stefan Struve and Roy Nelson earlier this year. The one against Struve was a particularly good showing, however—he outfought him most of the night and seemingly had it in the bag until the out-of-nowhere devastating punch. Given the American’s upside and ability to end a fight at anytime, play on HERMAN as the heavy underdog here.
The MMA Odds Breaker crew gives their fight predictions based on the opening lines for this bout:
Nogueira is a threat both on his feet and on the ground. At 36, he is past his prime, but still brings quality attacking skills to the Octagon. On his feet, he is an elite boxer while on the ground, few can match his Jiu Jitsu skills. Twenty of his 33 career victories are submissions, evidencing his Jiu Jitsu prowess. He owns three knockouts and 10 decision victories to his credit as well. An element of concern for Nogueira is that he has not fought since December of last year when Mir broke his arm. And with Herman’s propensity for knockouts and Nogueira losing two of his past five fights via knockout, play against.
Of Herman’s 21 career wins, 15 have been knockouts, five have been submissions and just one has been a decision. All and all, this one appears unlikely to go to the final bell. Of his four career losses, he’s been knocked out three times and lost once via disqualification, but notably never been susceptible to top-notch ground games and submissions. Though Herman has never beaten an opponent as accomplished as Nogueira and his quick loss to Nelson was discouraging, his power makes him a threat to take any fight at any time.