StatFox says:
Hey everybody, great to be back with another edition of the StatFox Scuffle. Because of some prior business & travel commitments, we've been unable to put Doug & Steve head-to-head for a few weeks, but they're both back and excited to talk about this week's Scuffle Topic: NBA All-Star Break Report. So without further ado, I welcome back StatFox Doug and StatFox Steve. Good day guys, good to hear you're surviving the winter!

StatFox Doug says:
Fortunately some of us (me) are able to survive a little better than others. After what turned out to be an entertaining All-Star game, it is time to look at the remainder of the regular season, right Steve ol' buddy?

StatFox Steve says:
Yes it is. Good day gentlemen, it is a pleasure to be back in the ring with Doug. I can't wait to hear that bell ring! I have to give a shout out to Doug and his courage in braving the arctic conditions of the Southwest. How is that pool by the way? Swim ready? Enough about that though, it's time to talk NBA.

StatFox says:
Gentlemen, as indicated earlier, we will be covering the NBA in today's Scuffle, focusing on what has happened, what will happen, and anything else that piques your interest. So why don't you start it up Doug with some more thoughts about the all-star game.

StatFox Steve says:
I have actually become quite opinionated about the all-star game as I have "matured". Though entertaining, often times it is more on comedic value. It has become a microcosm of everything that is wrong with the NBA. Little defense, little teamwork. Basically all show, no go. Sunday's contest was best when the four Pistons players and East star #5 were taking it to the West. What a sight to see. The only thing that would have made the game complete was if Carter's last second dunk miss would have cost the East the game. Too bad. Anyway, at least it's over and it's back to team ball. The ultimate team thus far, Detroit, is sure to garner plenty of our attention in this Scuffle. What are your thoughts on the Pistons Doug?

StatFox Doug says:
StatFox Steve and mature in the same sentence? I’d love to talk to your wife about that one. Anyways Mr. Narcissism, how do you not like the Pistons. The rest of the season the only motivation is home court throughout the playoffs. Playing them or any of the top teams is risky at best. They do have a stretch in the 2nd half of 9 roadies in 11 games. Betting potential either way. Pistons are $1.40 to win the East at SportsInterAction.com, have to take Free Money.

StatFox Steve says:
Funny, I can't take it now because I got it at 5-1 before the season started. If you recall we covered that in a preseason NBA Scuffle. I was actually reading it this morning. That might have one of our better days Doug, as we had some pretty strong predictions. BTW, I also had Detroit over 50 wins. Can I cash that one yet?

StatFox Doug says:
Patience Steve, patience. Do you think anybody even has a prayer in the East?

StatFox Steve says:
Although I think it will ultimately be Detroit, I would give Miami and Cleveland the best shots at getting to the Finals from the East. That “Dwyane Wade show” victory a week and half ago was huge for Miami's confidence, but I just don't think the Heat are deep enough. As far as Cleveland goes, they are young and potent. They might be too inexperienced, but they also might be too naive to realize it! Lebron will have that team in the finals in the next few years.

StatFox Doug says:
I concur. One team that is wacky and confident is Indiana. The Pacers are shutting teams down faster the Jessica to Nick. They truly believe they can beat Detroit. I'm not sure I agree, however they do present problems for a number of teams. Rookie Danny Granger deserves plenty of props. The Heat had a bad mix of talent going into the season and I've seen nothing to change my opinion, DEEWayne Wade aside. Look at all the bad teams in the East that are so poorly mismanaged. Danny Ainge -Boston, Isiah Thomas- Knicks, my goodness, how did these owners acquire their wealth?

StatFox Steve says:
I agree. Roster makeup is everything. The four Pistons' being named to the all-star game was a credit to team basketball. Don't get me wrong, individual stars have their place in the game obviously, but only when they are surrounded by quality role players accepting of their roles. The Knicks are a joke right now, and I'm shocked Brown thought he could coach his way through it. As far as the Heat are concerned, it will be very interesting watching them try to work their way through the playoffs with an "ungelled roster".

StatFox Doug says:
Moving to the Western Conference, more possiblities, with interesting "wild card" teams and situations. Mr. Maturity, please expound first.

StatFox Steve says:
Before going West, I wanted to make an interesting observation about ATS records in the East, as I think a team's ATS mark says a lot about how well a team IS gelling. Miami is actually right around .500. ATS, but three of the four teams we considered as championship contenders from the East are in the top 8 of the entire league in ATS %. On the opposite side, the Knicks, Bulls, Celtics, and 76ers, all disappointments per se, are in the bottom 5 of the NBA. It goes to show that studying spreads and betting in the NBA can give a great indication of what teams will have overall success in a season.

StatFox Doug says:
Well thanks Tim McCarver, good teams cover spreads and bad teams don't, go figure. Anyways, speaking of rosters, kudos to Dallas for re-working their team to add a defensive presence. One thing that was interesting, when the Mavs won 14 straight, they only gained a game and a half on San Antonio who was 13-2 in the same time frame.

StatFox Steve says:
That McCarver comment isn't exactly true Mr. Simplicity. San Antonio is currently 25-27 ATS, and Denver & Washington are also sub-.500 teams when point spreads are concerned. On the opposite hand, Toronto at 20-34 SU is the league's best ATS team. Go figure. Regarding your thoughts about Dallas...I agree. You could see this team transforming to a younger, more defensive oriented team over the last couple of seasons, and they sure are better for it! With Nowitzki playing like an MVP and the rest of the crew doing what they need to, Cuban's boys look very dangerous now.

StatFox Doug says:
The one thing I still wonder about the Mavs is in the clutch. The franchise has kind of a St. Louis Cardinals feel to it. Always posting impressive numbers, yet never marching to a title. Can Avery Johnson make the right adjustments in crunch time? Dallas is 7-1 to win it all currently, very thought provoking. What else do you like out West?

StatFox Steve says:
I agree on your hesitancy about the Mavericks Doug. At this point, it almost seems that San Antonio is biding its time through injuries and boredom in anticipation of the playoffs. There are usually very few surprises in the NBA playoffs, as only a few teams have what it takes to be a championship contender over the course of a two-month playoff. Dallas may be a year or two away yet. Elsewhere, I am VERY intrigued by your Phoenix boys. I thought the changes they made in the offseason were quite shrewd, dumping overpriced single-dimensional players. Despite losing Stoudemire, they may even be better than last year. When he comes back, look out. I like their chances.

StatFox Doug says:
Steve, you read my mind.(Scary thought from both perspectives) Over the break I found 5-1 and 10-1 odds on the Suns to win the West and the NBA title respectively. I believe they are 30-12 since 4-5 start. Amare started working out with the team yesterday and is targeted for mid-March return. If any team can break up the Texas logjam, it's Phoenix. D'Antoni is so smart with today's modern player, it is amazing. Can San Antonio do it again?

StatFox Doug says:
Steve, I neglected to mention that Phoenix and Detroit are the only two teams that have winning records SU and ATS on the road. Please continue.....

StatFox Steve says:
You'd have to think the Spurs can do it, especially if they are at full strength. Ginobli being in and out of the lineup has had a lot to do with their 2nd place standing and ATS mediocrity. In fact, I would go so far as to say that they are a great team to ride the rest of the regular season as rarely does a 55 win or more type of team falter ATS for an entire season.

StatFox Doug says:
Based on history I would probably agree with you. One area I always look at in the NBA is margin of victory for championship teams. Your typical champion outscores the opposition by 8-10 points per game during the regular season. The Spurs are at +6.5. Not that they can't improve on that total by season's end. Of note, the Pistons are +8.5.

StatFox Steve says:
Good point. I am, as I've probably bored you with many times before, a fan of the Outplay Factor Rating. It puts a numerical value on how well teams are outplaying or being outplayed by their opponents. Currently the top 4 are: Detroit +7.7, Dallas +6.9, Phoenix +6.8, and San Antonio +6.5. No other team is above 4.0 at this point, so I wouldn't look outside this fearsome foursome for the champion.On the opposite end, Portland -7.6 and New York -6.0 have distanced themselves as the worst teams.

StatFox Doug says:
Isiah Thomas - YOU DA MAN. What a bozo! You mentioned earlier, you read thru our pre-season picks and even though I don't remember everything, I distinctly remember saying NO/OK would be lucky to win 20 games. Of course I was referring to the first of the year. No, I was way off and if the Hornets just play .500 the rest of the year and finish 44-38 and make the playoffs, Byron Scott is my Coach of the Year. They've played well at OK City with 16-10 ATS record and are 7-3 ATS as (traveling) home dogs.

StatFox Steve says:
You and me both Doug. In fact, as I read through that initial NBA scuffle, that was the one that we BOTH blew badly. Quite frankly, I'm shocked. I've had a chance to watch 2-3 Hornets games this season, and I still am befuddled as to how they are winning so many games. Anyway, I can't let this end without tipping my hat to my Bucks. Larry Harris did a phenomenal job in the offseason putting together a playoff caliber team, and not withstanding last night's gut-wrenching loss to the Nets, I like this team's outlook. They play a very reasonable schedule the rest of the way and should find themselves in the 4,5, or 6 spot for the East playoffs.

StatFox Doug says:
Hold it, hold it, hold it. I was actually hoping the "mature" StatFox Steve could make it thru a whole period of time without a homer reference. Put down your "Bango" toy (Bucks mascot) for a second. Yes, facts are facts. Milwaukee is currently 6th in the Eastern Conference.   But your telling me a team that outscores the opposition by less then a point at home and is 10-21 SU against all divisions not named Atlantic and Southeast deserves accolades? I've been a Bucks fan from further back than I care to recall, but I put down my purple kool-aid a long time ago. To become anything, you have to win your division first. Pick which year over the next decade you see that happening.

StatFox Steve says:
Baby steps Doug. You have to learn to walk before you can run. I'm not saying the Bucks are Finals bound, but it would be a mistake to overlook them. Last night was the first night THIS SEASON that they had their top 8 rotation together in a game. They have a star in Michael Redd, an up & coming point guard in TJ Ford, and 6 other regular contributors that fill roles nicely. They've also held their last 12 opponents under 95 points. Good signs to look at as we head down the stretch.

StatFox Doug says:
One problem with defensive logic, offensively they have scored 90.6 PPG in same dozen games. Believe me, I want them to do well also, I just don't think they are that good. Alright, we both like Detroit in the Finals, who from the West and can they beat the Pistons?

StatFox Steve says:
Steve's NBA all-star break predictions: Final four East - Detroit over Cleveland, Miami over Milwaukee (that's what I had in November so I can't change now), Final Four West - San Antonio over Dallas, Phoenix over Memphis. NBA Finals - Detroit over San Antonio

StatFox Doug says:
I have no idea what I took, I'm guessing Detroit and San Antonio, however I'm calling for the upset and putting Phoenix in the Finals with one caveat. Amare has to be playing at 85% of efficiency of prior form. If not then, then I'm picking Dallas in the West, with the motivated Pistons cutting down the twine this time. One final thought. I think this has been a terribly boring year in the NBA, even worse than the NFL. This distance between the best teams and the next group down is a chasm. The next batch of dogs is even further down. I believe the CBB season has been on par with others recently and the Morrison, Redick scoring match is fun. Just struggling to enjoy the NBA. In fairness I will say my displeasure has nothing to do with my betting record that currently is three games below .500 in the NBA.

StatFox Steve says:
Good call Doug...I like a guy who goes out on a limb (to hang himself with his hometown team). Hah! If you're right, at least it will be something different. This has been fun. As I sign off, keep an eye on Houston the rest of the way. Normally good defensive teams are a solid bet down the stretch in seasons, and obviously the Rockets have been fighting some injury problems this year. Either way, tourney time is coming. Enough about the NBA! Talk to you next week...

StatFox Doug says:
Later Steve and good luck until next week.