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2012-13 NBA Pacific Division Preview
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 10/25/2012  at  2:15:00 AM
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PACIFIC DIVISION

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

2011-12 SU record: 46-32 SU (59.0%), 7th in NBA
2011-12 ATS record: 31-45-2 ATS (40.8%), 29th in NBA
Odds to Win 2012-13 Pacific Division: 1-to-30
Odds to Win 2012-13 Western Conference: 4-to-5
Odds to Win 2012-13 NBA Championship: 9-to-4

GUARDS
Coach Mike Brown will reportedly turn the offensive gameplan over to STEVE NASH, but it's tough to picture a smooth transition after so many years of iso-heavy play in L.A. Don't be surprised if Nash has a tough adjustment . . . KOBE BRYANT will also have to learn to play with the ball out of his hands more often. He still figures to force some hold-and-wait basketball when he can . . . STEVE BLAKE will be in the old Derek Fisher role, coming off the bench to shoot corner threes . . . CHRIS DUHON and DARIUS MORRIS will battle for that No. 3 point guard spot . . . JODIE MEEKS will back up Bryant and provide some long-range shooting off the bench . . . The young guys, ANDREW GOUDELOCK and second-rounder DARIUS JOHNSON-ODOM, will bounce between the bench and the D-League.

FORWARDS
If L.A. redesigns their offense to fit Nash, PAU GASOL should thrive. He's adjusted his game to fit with Kobe's iso play, but Gasol can make the passes and cuts to create quick buckets in a Euro-style offense . . . METTA WORLD PEACE looked done early last season but rebounded for a solid second half. He's a distant fifth option on offense, but can still defend . . . ANTAWN JAMISON will likely fill a sixth-man role. His skill set is too narrow to play a lot of minutes with the starters . . . JORDAN HILL is in the rotation. He did a nice job rebounding and clearing out space last year . . . DEVIN EBANKS figures to be bumped out of the rotation by Jamison.

CENTERS
DWIGHT HOWARD's back remains a bit of a concern, and it wouldn't be a shock to see him sit out a handful of regular season games. But when he plays, he'll put up the same kind of monster production that he had in Orlando . . . ROBERT SACRE will be lucky to make the roster.

StatFox Take: The Lakers are loaded, and as long as this team stays relatively healthy, they will be playing well into June. They’ll certainly have their bumps in the road with overblown media drama when not all of their superstars will be happy. But they’ll get it figured out, and there just isn’t another team that can guard Kobe Bryant, Steve Nash, Dwight Howard and Pau Gasol all on the floor at once. The best wager is the 9-to-4 odds to win it all, as they have a better chance to beat the East champ than they do of winning the West.

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

2011-12 SU record: 44-33 SU (57.1%), 10th in NBA
2011-12 ATS record: 38-36-3 ATS (51.4%), 13th in NBA
Odds to Win 2012-13 Pacific Division: 6-to-1
Odds to Win 2012-13 Western Conference: 15-to-1
Odds to Win 2012-13 NBA Championship: 30-to-1

GUARDS
CHRIS PAUL was every bit an MVP-caliber player in his first year in L.A. They should monitor his minutes late in the regular season to keep him fresh for the playoffs. . . His Achilles is on schedule to be healed by December, and CHAUNCEY BILLUPS will start once he's healthy. He's likely to lose athleticism, and his leash could be short if he shoots as poorly as he did last year . . . JAMAL CRAWFORD steps in to lead the second unit. We'll see how quickly his inefficient, shoot-first ways grow stale . . . ERIC BLEDSOE was a stud in the playoffs. He can't play extended minutes alongside Paul, but coach Vinny Del Negro knows he has to get Bledsoe on the floor . . . WILLIE GREEN provides capable depth, but he's on the outside looking in at the rotation.

FORWARDS
BLAKE GRIFFIN's knee injury likely isn't serious enough to linger into the season. He's starting to develop some post moves to go along with his dunks . . . CARON BUTLER played hurt for most of last year, but still did enough to nail down a starting job for this season . . . LAMAR ODOM moped his way back to L.A. Don't be surprised if he has a strong bounce-back year, especially considering he'll be the Clippers' best defensive big . . . GRANT HILL could see some starts, but more likely the 40-year-old is pegged for limited minutes . . . MATT BARNES will replace Hill once he injures himself again . . . RONNY TURIAF will provide some of the toughness they lost when Reggie Evans left . . . TREY THOMPKINS will continue to languish on the bench, especially after sitting out the preseason with a knee injury.

CENTERS
He can block shots and rebound, but at this point DeANDRE JORDAN is just too much of a defensive liability in space to play 30-plus minutes. That's why the Clippers will often pair Lamar Odom with Blake Griffin in the frontcourt . . . RYAN HOLLINS can also defend the basket and has six fouls to give.

StatFox Take: The Clippers had a rough offseason, replacing solid team-first players like Nick Young, Randy Foye and Reggie Evans with malcontents like Lamar Odom and Jamal Crawford. Chris Paul and Blake Griffin are both among the more injury-prone star players and this team does not have the firepower or toughness to hang with the elite West teams.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

2011-12 SU record: 23-43 SU (34.8%), T-23rd in NBA
2011-12 ATS record: 36-30 ATS (54.5%), 5th in NBA
Odds to Win 2012-13 Pacific Division: 50-to-1
Odds to Win 2012-13 Western Conference: 60-to-1
Odds to Win 2012-13 NBA Championship: 100-to-1

GUARDS
STEPHEN CURRY is this offense's engine and a stat-stuffing machine, as long as he's healthy. His ankle should be healed, but his small frame hasn't proven to be up to the rigors of the NBA . . . KLAY THOMPSON is a pure shooter who played himself into a starting job last year. He's a bit one-dimensional, but this spread, up-tempo offense is right up his alley . . . JARRETT JACK will back up both guard spots and provide some insurance for the fragile Curry . . . BRANDON RUSH is going to push for a starting job, but he's never proven to be more than a second-unit talent . . . As a rookie, CHARLES JENKINS proved worthy of a roster spot during his late-season audition. But he'll be looking at a lot of DNP-CDs as long as Curry and Jack are healthy.

FORWARDS
DAVID LEE's touches will drop alongside Andrew Bogut. The Warriors seem prepared to give him major minutes despite his defensive shortcomings . . . HARRISON BARNES should push for a starting job early. He's not a great iso player, but the Warriors' offense should set him up with catch-and-score opportunities . . . CARL LANDRY is active around the basket and should do some damage over 20 MPG . . . RICHARD JEFFERSON is going to be in a mentor role until his contract expires in two years . . . JEREMY TYLER is young and a borderline usable big off the bench . . . Second-rounder DRAYMOND GREEN isn't an athlete but does a bit of everything. He figures to have a limited role as a rookie.

CENTERS
His fractured ankle is not quite 100 percent, but ANDREW BOGUT hopes to be healed enough when the season starts to be the centerpiece of the frontcourt. He can rebound and defend, and he'll get his share of easy scoring opportunities with so many shooters spreading the floor . . . The Warriors seem content to let ANDRIS BIEDRINS rot on the bench . . . Rookie FESTUS EZELI is too raw offensively to see significant minutes.

StatFox Take: The Warriors ended last season with 22 losses in their final 27 games, and didn’t make any moves to shake up their roster which drops off severely after Stephen Curry and David Lee. It makes no sense why they are 50-to-1 to win the Pacific, but just 60-to-1 to win the entire West.

PHOENIX SUNS

2011-12 SU record: 33-33 SU (50.0%), 18th in NBA
2011-12 ATS record: 34-31-1 ATS (52.3%), T-9th in NBA
Odds to Win 2012-13 Pacific Division: 50-to-1
Odds to Win 2012-13 Western Conference: 100-to-1
Odds to Win 2012-13 NBA Championship: 200-to-1

GUARDS
With Steve Nash gone, GORAN DRAGIC takes over at the point. He was a monster as a starter in Houston late last year, and he's familiar with Phoenix's system from his time there as Nash's backup . . . SHANNON BROWN is one of the league's better sixth men and could end up seeing close to starter minutes this year. Once just a raw athlete, he's made major strides as a shooter and ball-handler . . . KENDALL MARSHALL was a bit of a product of an absurdly talented supporting cast in college at UNC. He's got work to do to become an NBA-caliber starter, but he'll be capable enough as a backup point guard as a rookie . . . SEBASTIAN TELFAIR still can't hit an open jump shot, but will factor into the backcourt rotation.

FORWARDS
LUIS SCOLA steps in as the starting four. While he's in his 30's and an underwhelming athlete, he's crafty and relentless . . . JARED DUDLEY will continue to be their main catch-and-shoot threat on the wing. It might take a while to develop an on-court chemistry with Dragic . . . MICHAEL BEASLEY has a chance to grab a starting spot. He rarely has his head on straight, but he can score . . . CHANNING FRYE, the sharp-shooting 7-footer, will likely miss the 2012-13 season due to an enlarged heart, but this condition is expected to completely heal . . . WESLEY JOHNSON gets a fresh start. He needs to start knocking down shots to land a rotation spot . . . MARKIEFF MORRIS showed flashes as a rookie, but has to make better decisions on the offensive end. He'll be a key on the second unit . . . Well-traveled P.J. TUCKER earned himself a roster spot with an impressive Summer League.

CENTERS
MARCIN GORTAT had a great year-and-a-half alongside Steve Nash, and he'll have to prove he can create in the low post a little more. But he's a skilled big man who should pair nicely with Luis Scola as a scorer and passer in the post . . . Injury-riddled JERMAINE O'NEAL is still a strong low-post defender and shot-blocker.

StatFox Take: The Suns not only lost Steve Nash, but starting PF Channing Frye is also out for the season with a heart condition. This is a scrappy team that will compete every night, but the backcourt is not strong enough to propel Phoenix into one of the top-eight spots out West competing in the 2013 playoffs.

SACRAMENTO KINGS

2011-12 SU record: 22-44 SU (33.3%), T-25th in NBA
2011-12 ATS record: 29-37 ATS (43.9%), 26th in NBA
Odds to Win 2012-13 Pacific Division: 100-to-1
Odds to Win 2012-13 Western Conference: 150-to-1
Odds to Win 2012-13 NBA Championship: 300-to-1

GUARDS
MARCUS THORNTON is the only one guaranteed a consistent role on the perimeter . . . ISAIAH THOMAS was the story of the second half for the Kings. He can fill up the box score, but at 5-foot-9 (at best) he's too much of a defensive liability and not a point guard . . . AARON BROOKS is the most talented guard on this team. He's had attitude problems in the past, but he could, and should, lead this team . . . Now that he remained in Sacto, TYREKE EVANS will be playing off the ball at the three against his wishes . . . The Kings will keep on trying to unload JOHN SALMONS, who's not a useful NBA player . . . JIMMER FREDETTE should have a role off the bench, but his ball-handling is not where it has to be for an NBA point guard . . . FRANCISCO GARCIA's chance seems to have passed him by.

FORWARDS
THOMAS ROBINSON should emerge as a starter early in his rookie year. He has his flaws on both ends of the floor, but he brings energy and doesn't need a lot of touches to get his points . . . Even if Robinson knocks him to the bench, JASON THOMPSON should play the five at times and see close to starter's minutes . . . JAMES JOHNSON should also play big minutes soon considering his ability to make positive contributions without a lot of touches . . . CHUCK HAYES should continue to play second-unit minutes as a glue guy . . . TRAVIS OUTLAW has regressed to the point that he's lucky to have a roster spot . . . TYLER HONEYCUTT has an intriguing skill set as a defensive-minded point forward, but he's likely ticketed for the D-League again.

CENTERS
DeMARCUS COUSINS came on strong late last season. There's no doubt he has All-Star potential, but between his awful shot selection and occasional attitude problems, he just hasn't lived up to his potential. After Team USA passed on him this summer because of reported maturity problems, he might still not get it.

StatFox Take: The Kings will continue to push the tempo with a host of quick guards that can run all day. But there are reasons why the oddsmakers are giving them 300-to-1 odds to win the NBA Title. Sacramento still gives up way too many points, allowing a league-high 104.4 PPG last season, and their only NBA-ready big man, DeMarcus Cousins, needs a serious attitude and work ethic adjustment. Until he grows up this team is going nowhere.

All NBA Previews

ATLANTIC Division
CENTRAL Division
SOUTHEAST Division
NORTHWEST Division
PACIFIC Division
SOUTHWEST Division - Fri, Oct. 26

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Once the NBA season begins on Oct. 30, check out NBA Best Bets for all the Expert picks.

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