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SOUTHWEST DIVISION

GUARDS
TONY PARKER played at an MVP level last year. His eye injury is obviously not an issue, and he was constantly getting on coach Gregg Popovich to let him finish meaningless games last year. There's no reason he can't repeat last year's performance . . . MANU GINOBILI dealt with a series of nagging injuries last year, and it's clear the team will have to monitor his regular-season workload . . . GARY NEAL provides solid minutes in this rotation, mostly at the point, and is able to consistently knock down threes . . . DANNY GREEN's rotation spot is in a bit of peril. He was too much of an offensive liability in last year's Western Conference Finals . . . NANDO de COLO is a combo guard who can provide instant offense off the bench. He can shoot it and does a nice job getting to the line . . . PATTY MILLS steps in as another viable option in this loaded backcourt . . . CORY JOSEPH's roster spot is in jeopardy after a middling D-League season.

FORWARDS
TIM DUNCAN will continue to save it up for the playoffs. He still has plenty left in the tank, but he'll get tons of rest in March and April and more and more often defers to Tony Parker on offense when he does play . . . There's plenty to like about KAWHI LEONARD, who proved to be useful on both ends of the court last season. He'll be asked to be a little more aggressive offensively this year and should even have a couple of sets designed for him . . . STEPHEN JACKSON was a bit of a disaster in Milwaukee before landing with the Spurs last year. He's another veteran who will be paced during the regular season. And while he's been a facilitator in the past, he's really just a catch-and-shoot guy in San Antonio . . . MATT BONNER will continue to come off the bench and hoist some threes.

CENTERS
BORIS DIAW's pick-and-pop ability makes him Popovich's top choice in the center rotation . . . TIAGO SPLITTER looks to be a career second-unit guy. He works hard and can defend, but he's just too clunky on the offensive end . . . DeJUAN BLAIR can pick up some cheap baskets, but his lack of offensive skills and defensive size makes him a fringe rotation player.

StatFox Take: The Spurs are the same exact team that won the West regular season with a 50-16 record, including 28-5 at home. Nobody keeps their star players fresher than Gregg Popovich, as he’s able rotate his players more than most because he has the deepest roster in the entire league. He also is blessed with team-oriented superstars that believe they have one more championship run in them. A 6-to-1 wager that they can recapture old magic and win the West is a pretty sound gamble.

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

2011-12 SU record: 44-29 SU (60.3%), 6th in NBA
2011-12 ATS record: 31-40-2 ATS (43.7%), 27th in NBA
Odds to Win 2012-13 Southwest Division: 4-to-1
Odds to Win 2012-13 Western Conference: 15-to-1
Odds to Win 2012-13 NBA Championship: 30-to-1

GUARDS
The Grizzlies will scale back MIKE CONLEY's minutes a bit. He's a quality starting point guard, but seemed to lose some pep as last season wore on . . . TONY ALLEN figures to see more playing time now that O.J. Mayo is gone. He's an outstanding defender who will be the fifth option on offense . . . JERRYD BAYLESS figures to become the new sixth man and Allen platoon partner. He'll also spell Conley at the point, leading to solid minutes for the combo guard . . . Second-year man JOSH SELBY has a chance for a rotation spot after starring in the Summer League. He has big offensive upside . . . WAYNE ELLINGTON seems like an emergency plan for the second unit . . . This is likely a redshirt year for talented, but erratic, rookie TONY WROTEN.

FORWARDS
RUDY GAY is going to lead the Grizzlies in touches and shots. He's not shy about looking for iso situations . . . ZACH RANDOLPH had trouble getting back into the flow after his knee injury. It's always been a fragile balance with Z-Bo, and he could be an odd man out going forward . . . MARREESE SPEIGHTS should be the offensive focal point of the bench unit as their sixth man . . . QUINCY PONDEXTER is a versatile defensive piece who will see solid minutes off the bench. He's a non-factor offensively, though . . . DARRELL ARTHUR suffered a non-displaced fractured in his leg in late September, and will not likely be ready when the season begins. A rising young big, his role will depend on when his athleticism comes back.

CENTERS
The Grizzlies are at their best when MARC GASOL is getting touches and shots on the offensive end. Whether or not Gay and Randolph are willing to share is a concern, but Gasol has to be aggressive when the ball is in his hands . . . HAMED HADDADI will continue to play limited minutes off the bench.

StatFox Take: The Grizzlies finished nine games behind San Antonio last season and don’t figure to get much closer this year with both roster remaining virtually the same. Marc Gasol could be their best player, but he doesn’t get the ball enough to become a superstar player. Memphis was a poor road team last season (15-18) and doesn’t seem to have that championship chemistry either on or off the court.

DALLAS MAVERICKS

2011-12 SU record: 36-34 SU (51.4%), T-16th in NBA
2011-12 ATS record: 33-36-1 ATS (47.8%), 22nd in NBA
Odds to Win 2012-13 Southwest Division: 13-to-2
Odds to Win 2012-13 Western Conference: 25-to-1
Odds to Win 2012-13 NBA Championship: 40-to-1

GUARDS
DARREN COLLISON's jump shot might be shaky, but he can get into the lane at will. He'll be a much different look than Jason Kidd had been in Big D . . . O.J. MAYO becomes the second option in this offense. He'll have the ball in his hands a lot . . . VINCE CARTER will come off the bench. At this point, he's a three-point specialist, and not a very good one . . . DELONTE WEST will back up both guard spots. Don't be surprised if he overtakes Collison at some point . . . RODDY BEAUBOIS can heat up in an instant, but he has work to do to make this rotation . . . DAHNTAY JONES is roster filler . . . DOMINIQUE JONES enters the year on the roster bubble . . . JARED CUNNINGHAM will learn the point guard position watching from the bench as a rookie.

FORWARDS
After a slow start last season, DIRK NOWITZKI looked like the Dirk of old in the second half of the year. He's still got something left in the tank, but it's still unclear if the swelling in his knee will require surgery, something that would shelve him for more than a month . . . SHAWN MARION is still an important cog in Carlisle's creative defensive gameplans, so he'll keep playing big minutes despite his dwindling offensive skills . . . ELTON BRAND is still relevant, even behind Nowitzki, because of his ability to play some center . . . BRANDAN WRIGHT will be in and out of the rotation again, but he's now relatively healthy and showed signs of being a serviceable rotation player a year ago . . . Rookie Jae CROWDER profiles as a potentially solid second-unit player, but he'll be buried on this depth chart.

CENTERS
CHRIS KAMAN gives Dallas some offensive skill at center, but he's not exactly the defensive presence they've needed. He'll log the bulk of the minutes here, but there are going to be a handful of games where the Mavs have to sit him and go small for defensive purposes . . . 27-year-old rookie BERNARD JAMES could fill Ian Mahinmi's old role of a shot-blocker/fouler off the bench.

StatFox Take: The Mavericks have a whole new starting cast to surround Dirk Nowitzki once he returns from knee surgery in 6-to-8 weeks. This crew should play at a faster pace than last season and should also force more turnovers from their opponents. A soft early-season schedule could allow them to thrive without Nowitzki and once he gets back, their is enough of a positive unknown factor to wager on 13-to-2 odds that they can beat out the Spurs for the division crown.

HOUSTON ROCKETS

2011-12 SU record: 34-32 SU (51.5%), 15th in NBA
2011-12 ATS record: 32-33-1 ATS (49.2%), 18th in NBA
Odds to Win 2012-13 Southwest Division: 60-to-1
Odds to Win 2012-13 Western Conference: 150-to-1
Odds to Win 2012-13 NBA Championship: 300-to-1

GUARDS
Houston has gutted its roster, and this is JEREMY LIN's team now. Coach Kevin McHale will use the same pick-and-roll offense he used with Goran Dragic, and Lin should do what he did in New York a year ago . . . KEVIN MARTIN is on the trade block. As long as he's in Houston, he'll be in and out of McHale's doghouse, especially seeing that he's not in the long-term plans . . . JEREMY LAMB should push Martin for minutes early. Lamb will have some defensive issues, but he's a cagey scorer who should mesh well with Lin . . . CARLOS DELFINO replaces Chase Budinger as the team's most reliable marksman from three-point range . . . TONEY DOUGLAS' defensive ability puts him in the running for a rotation spot . . . SHAUN LIVINGSTON can give them 12 to 15 minutes a night . . . Rookie SCOTT MACHADO, an outstanding passer, will back up Lin . . . GARY FORBES will have trouble finding minutes.

FORWARDS
CHANDLER PARSONS was a nice surprise a year ago. He's a fifth option offensively but does the hustle/energy thing well . . . 2011 first-rounder DONATAS MOTIEJUNAS is a skilled 7-footer who fits with Lin. Expect him to grab a starting job by midseason, but he can also play center when required . . . This might be the year PATRICK PATTERSON makes an impact. His game is limited, but he can rebound and score around the basket . . . ROYCE WHITE is a 270-pounder with point guard skills. He needs the ball in his hands though, which is why he's not a great fit with Lin in the starting lineup . . . TERRENCE JONES has a tweener skill set. At this point, he's better suited for the second unit . . . Speaking of 'tweeners, MARCUS MORRIS looks to be nowhere near contributing.

CENTERS
OMER ASIK earned his reputation as a defensive stud in Chicago, and he'll get a little more offensive freedom in Houston. He is quite foul-prone though, and he'll be tested on the free-throw line early and often . . . His backup, GREG SMITH, has more fouls (17) than points (14) in his 69-minute NBA career.

StatFox Take: Jeremy Lin-sanity will infuse some excitement with the Rockets this season, but he doesn’t have enough proven scorers to take full advantage of Lin’s excellent court vision. The loss of Luis Scola, Goran Dragic and Chase Budinger leaves a gaping hole and Omer Asik is not really a center that you can rely upon to keep most of the centers in the Western Conference in check. This team needs at least a couple of seasons before it can compete for a division crown, so don’t take the 60-to-1 bait to win the Southwest.

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

2011-12 SU record: 21-45 SU (31.8%), T-27th in NBA
2011-12 ATS record: 35-31 ATS (53.0%), 8th in NBA
Odds to Win 2012-13 Southwest Division: 100-to-1
Odds to Win 2012-13 Western Conference: 150-to-1
Odds to Win 2012-13 NBA Championship: 300-to-1

GUARDS
This offense will belong to ERIC GORDON. He'll get over the fact that the Hornets matched his offer from Phoenix, and as long as his surgically-repaired knee holds up, he's one of the most complete young scorers in the NBA . . . The Hornets reached for AUSTIN RIVERS with the 10th pick because Monty Williams wants to coach him and thinks he can be an NBA point guard. Rivers has the handle, but his athleticism is ordinary and, more importantly, he has never shown a PG mentality at any level . . . GREIVIS VASQUEZ is the closest thing to a true point guard on this roster. He'll see solid minutes assuming Rivers' adjustment is a tough one . . . Well-rounded ROGER MASON JR. will also provide point guard depth . . . XAVIER HENRY hasn't lived up to his reputation as a shooter, but the Hornets can be patient with him . . . Rookie BRIAN ROBERTS has had a strong enough preseason to likely earn a roster spot.

FORWARDS
ANTHONY DAVIS should step right in as a starter. His offensive game is further along than he gets credit for, and on the defensive end he's an absolute force from the basket out to the perimeter . . . He'll probably miss having Dwight Howard drawing in defenses, but RYAN ANDERSON has always been a very good three-point shooter. He and Davis are unique enough talents to share the court even if they're both power forwards . . . AL-FAROUQ AMINU made some strides on the defensive end late last season, which is what will get him minutes under Williams. He's underwhelming on the offensive end . . . If HAKIM WARRICK couldn't succeed as Steve Nash's pick-and-roll partner, it seems unlikely he'll ever help in New Orleans . . . Rookie DARIUS MILLER is looking to establish some kind of role with the team . . . LANCE THOMAS is doubtful to earn a salary to pay off his jewelry debts.

CENTERS
ROBIN LOPEZ has always had the ability to protect the rim and does a decent job in space. Look for him to end up grabbing the bulk of minutes in the middle . . . JASON SMITH gives the Hornets a more offensive-minded option off the bench.

StatFox Take: The Hornets can look forward to the future with rookie star Anthony Davis, but the present looks much more dim than even the 100-to-1 odds to win the division would suggest.

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Once the NBA season begins on Oct. 30, check out NBA Best Bets for all the Expert picks.