SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
at DETROIT TIGERS
World Series Game 4 - San Francisco leads series 3-0
First pitch: Sunday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Detroit -125, San Francisco +115, Total: 7
After getting shut out in back-to-back games, the Tigers try to avoid being swept in the World Series by the red-hot Giants on Sunday night.
San Francisco has won six straight games since being down 3-1 in the NLCS, outscoring its opponents by a combined score of 32 to 4, including four victories by shutout. Ace Matt Cain will try to give his team its second World Series title in three years when he goes up against Max Scherzer at Comerica Park. The Giants are 10-4 in Cain's past 14 starts including a 9-0 win in the NLCS Game 7 clincher behind 5.2 shutout innings from Cain. Scherzer has not been able to complete six innings in any of his past five starts, averaging a mere 4.4 innings per start over this stretch. Considering how well the Giants slug on the road with 5.0 runs per game (2nd in majors) leading to a 51-37 record (.580, 3rd in majors), and how poorly the Tigers have hit this series (.165 BA, .220 slugging), the pick here is underdog SAN FRANCISCO to complete the sweep on Sunday.
This two-star FoxSheets also trend also supports the Giants:
Play On - Road teams (SAN FRANCISCO) - after a win by 2 runs or less against opponent after scoring 1 run or less 2 straight games. (150-113 since 1997.) (57%, +44.8 units. Rating = 2*).
Cain (18-7, 2.86 ERA, 1.05 WHIP in 2012) has led his team to a 23-13 record (.639) in his 36 starts spanning both the regular season and playoffs. Although he's 9-3 on the road this year, his numbers are considerably worse (3.64 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) than at home. Cain has been mostly dominant in his postseason career, going 4-2 with a 1.83 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in seven career starts. He has never faced the Tigers in his career, but has a 2.65 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 21 career starts versus American League teams. He's been averaging only 5.8 innings per start in the 2012 playoffs, but he has a stellar bullpen that is 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 50 strikeouts in 50.2 innings this postseason.
Scherzer (17-7, 3.58 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) has led his team to a 22-12 record (.647) in his 34 starts in 2012. This includes an 11-4 mark at Comerica Park, where he is personally 8-3 with a 3.39 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and a ridiculous 116 strikeouts over 87.2 innings (11.9 K's/9). In two postseason starts, he's allowed just one earned run in 11 innings with 18 strikeouts and just three walks. For his playoff career, he is 2-1 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in six games (five starts, one in relief). Sunday will mark his fifth career start against the Giants, having gone 1-3 with a 5.12 ERA and 1.40 WHIP against them. When he last faced San Francisco on July 2, 2011 at Comerica Park, he was shelled for nine runs (6 ER) on six hits (2 HR) and three walks in just two innings of work in a 15-3 defeat. Detroit's bullpen numbers have been poor during the postseason (4.08 ERA, 1.22 WHIP), but much of that is on former closer Jose Valverde, who has allowed nine runs in 2.2 innings this postseason. He gave up four hits and two runs in just 0.1 innings in Thursday's Game 2. Taking Valverde out of the equation, the other six Tigers relievers have a 1.39 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in the 2012 playoffs, striking out 27 batters in 26 innings.