Other Conference Previews

BIG TEN CONFERENCE 2012-13 PREVIEW

Predicted Order of Finish:
1. Indiana
2. Michigan
3. Michigan State
4. Ohio State
5. Wisconsin
6. Iowa
7. Minnesota
8. Purdue
9. Northwestern
10. Illinois
11. Penn State
12. Nebraska

INDIANA HOOSIERS
2011-12 SU Record: 75% (27-9)
2011-12 ATS Record: 62% (18-11-1)
2011-12 Over (Total): 50% (15-15)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 5/1

Say hello to the preseason No. 1 team in the nation. Tom Crean took a huge leap with last year’s team, winning 15 more games than the previous season. And with four returning starters and the team’s five leading scorers coming back, another giant leap is in the works. Cody Zeller (15.6 PPG, 6.6 RPG) was phenomenal in his freshman campaign, making 62.3% of his field goals and averaging more than a block and steal per game. He’s joined in the frontcourt by Christian Watford (12.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG), while Jordan Hulls (11.7 PPG, 3.3 APG) and Victor Oladipo (10.8 PPG, 5.3 RPG 1.4 SPG) form a dangerous backcourt tandem. What makes this squad so threatening though is that Crean adds an elite crew of reinforcements. After missing all of last season with injuries, Maurice Creek is back and, when healthy, he might be the best pure scorer on the team—when he was healthy in his freshman year in 2009-2010, he averaged 16.4 PPG. And with top recruits Yogi Ferrell, Jeremy Hollowell and Hanner Mosquera-Perea, this is a team with both significant talent and depth.

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES
2011-12 SU Record: 71% (24-10)
2011-12 ATS Record: 55% (17-14)
2011-12 Over (Total): 52% (16-15)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 20/1

John Beilein guided this team to a tie for first in last year’s conference and even though just two starters are back, there is no shortage of ready-to-go talent on this Wolverines squad. While the team will really miss Zack Novak and Evan Smotryczk, last year’s two leading scorers are back in the fold in Trey Burke (14.8 PPG, 4.6 APG) and Tim Hardaway Jr. (14.6 PPG), forming the conference’s most dangerous backcourt duo as excellent dribble-drivers who combined to average nearly 3.5 three-pointers per game. Forward Jordan Morgan (7.3 PPG, 5.6 RPG) will remain a key role player while freshman SF Glenn Robinson III may be prove to be the most college-ready first-year player in the conference. With freshman Mitch McGary manning the post at 6-foot-10, this is a complete roster that has the ideal mix of veterans and young talent to still be balling in late March.

MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS
2011-12 SU Record: 78% (29-8)
2011-12 ATS Record: 65% (22-12)
2011-12 Over (Total): 49% (16-17-1)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 25/1

Tom Izzo’s squads will always compete, and Izzo squads with this much talent have the potential to be special. Last year’s centerpiece Draymond Green is gone, but there is a plethora of talent waiting in the wings to take this team past last year’s Big Ten regular season title that they shared with Michigan. Junior guard Keith Appling (11.4 PPG, 3.9 APG) is primed for a breakout season as the go-to guy while sophomore swingman Branden Dawson (8.4 PPG, 4.5 RPG) was second on the team in rebounding as a freshman and presents significant matchup issues with his athletic 6-foot-6 frame. Six-foot-10 center Adreian Payne (7.0 PPG, 4.2 RPG) should also be prepared to handle a bigger role after making the most of his 17.9 MPG last season as well. And watch out for freshman shooting guard Gary Harris, who not only can score, but will provide MSU with a lockdown defender, which is vital in this conference with such talented guard play.

OHIO STATE BUCKEYES
2011-12 SU Record: 80% (31-8)
2011-12 ATS Record: 58% (19-14-1)
2011-12 Over (Total): 59% (20-14)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 20/1

Ohio State will be very different looking this year, without Jared Sullinger and William Buford, but Thad Matta’s Buckeyes should still be able to hang with the best of the best in the nation. Deshaun Thomas (15.9 PPG, 5.4 RPG) is a threat both on the perimeter and in the post from the forward position and he should benefit from more opportunities. Point guard Aaron Craft (8.8 PPG, 4.6 APG, 2.5 SPG) may be the best pure point guard in the Big Ten, and there’s no doubt he should be able to improve now as an upperclassman. The Buckeyes missed out on a number of top recruits, but this veteran-led squad should still be dangerous, especially if Lenzelle Smith Jr. (6.8 PPG, 4.6 RPG) takes the necessary steps forward in his junior campaign.

WISCONSIN BADGERS
2011-12 SU Record: 72% (26-10)
2011-12 ATS Record: 58% (19-14)
2011-12 Over (Total): 50% (16-16-1)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1

Head coach Bo Ryan’s Badgers may not be able to match up to Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State in this year’s Big Ten but they should be favored against the rest of the competition. Wisconsin’s defense and slow tempo is legendary, holding opponents to a Division-I low 53.2 PPG, and that shouldn’t change even without last year’s leader Jordan Taylor, who had a team-high 14.8 PPG and 4.1 APG. Now it’s time for Ryan Evans (11.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG) and Jared Berggren (10.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 1.7 BPG) to lead this team from the inside out. Despite standing at 6-foot-10 and playing center in a lot of Ryan’s lineups, Berggren is also a threat on the perimeter, averaging 1.3 threes per game last year, where he will be especially needed considering sniper Josh Gasser, who played 34.1 MPG last year and nailed 45.2% of his shots from beyond the arc, is out for the year with a torn ACL. At 6-foot-7, freshman SF Sam Dekker will be a perfect addition to Ryan’s style of play, giving this team a lengthy and flexible roster that should continue to play lockdown defense.

IOWA HAWKEYES
2011-12 SU Record: 51% (18-17)
2011-12 ATS Record: 53% (16-14)
2011-12 Over (Total): 57% (17-13)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 200/1

Fran McCaffery’s Hawkeyes are another team that took a step forward last season, winning seven more games than the previous year and churning out eight Big Ten victories. Departed Matt Gatens carried that squad with 15.2 PPG, but the rest of the core is back with Roy Devyn Marble (11.5 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 3.6 APG) able to do it all, and sophomore forward Aaron White (11.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG) poised for more touches. 7-foot-1 freshman center Adam Woodbury will be a critical component joining White in the frontcourt, and fellow first-year point guard Mike Gesell should be key for helping Marble get more open looks.

MINNESOTA GOLDEN GOPHERS
2011-12 SU Record: 61% (23-15)
2011-12 ATS Record: 56% (19-15-1)
2011-12 Over (Total): 49% (17-18)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1

Ralph Sampson III’s big body in the paint will be sorely missed, but Tubby Smith got a big break when Trevor Mbakwe (14.0 PPG, 9.1 RPG in seven games) was granted another year of eligibility after tearing his ACL before midseason last year. Without him, the Golden Gophers struggled to compete in the conference, going 6-12. But Mbakwe, Rodney Williams (12.2 PPG, 5.6 RPG) in the frontcourt and guards Julian Welch (9.5 PPG, 2.9 APG), Austin Hollins (9.2 PPG) and Andre Hollins (8.7 PPG) form a solid veteran core that will help this team compete despite the lack of any elite talent joining the fold.

PURDUE BOILERMAKERS
2011-12 SU Record: 63% (22-13)
2011-12 ATS Record: 58% (19-14)
2011-12 Over (Total): 63% (20-12)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1

The new-look Boilermakers were able to grind their way to a 10-8 mark in the Big Ten, but will struggle to do so again without last year’s two leading scorers Robbie Hummel and Lewis Jackson. Terone Jackson (9.2 PPG) was effective in spurts last year at guard and will certainly see more than the 23.7 MPG he played last year. Six-foot-5 swingman D.J. Byrd (8.9 PPG, 43% 3-pt FG) is the other key player returning from last year’s squad. Head coach Matt Painter also adds three solid recruits in 7-foot center A.J. Hammons, 6-foot-5 shooting guard Rapheal Davis and point guard Ronnie Johnson, who should all receive significant minutes in their first years.

NORTHWESTERN WILDCATS
2011-12 SU Record: 58% (19-14)
2011-12 ATS Record: 48% (13-14-1)
2011-12 Over (Total): 61% (17-11)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 200/1

Without the school's career scoring leader John Shurna, who carried last year’s team with 20.0 PPG and 5.4 RPG, this Wildcats squad will face an uphill battle in the Big Ten. However, the other four starters are back for head coach Bill Carmody, led by the dangerous swingman Drew Crawford (16.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG), so this team should be able to rack up at least a few conference wins. Carmody is also excited to have a talented center for a change with 7-foot freshman Alex Olah able to score, rebound and defend.

ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI
2011-12 SU Record: 53% (17-15)
2011-12 ATS Record: 35% (10-19-1)
2011-12 Over (Total): 59% (17-12)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1

Replacing Bruce Weber, John Groce gets a chance to take over a major conference squad that returns four starters from a disappointing team that posted a dismal 6-12 conference record. It will take him time to bring in top talent that will let this program compete again, but with three of their top four scorers coming back in Brandon Paul (14.7 PPG, 4.7 RPG), D.J. Richardson (11.6 PPG) and Joseph Bertrand (6.5 PPG, 54% FG), this team has a respectable core. Look for Bertrand and Coastal Carolina transfer Sam McLaurin to assume big roles on this team as the Fighting Illini attempt to compete during this transition period.

PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS
2011-12 SU Record: 38% (12-20)
2011-12 ATS Record: 38% (9-15-3)
2011-12 Over (Total): 48% (13-14)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1 (Field)

The Nittany Lions may be looking forward to the hardwood to distract from the football turmoil of the last year, but Patrick Chambers’ crew will have a difficult time improving on last year’s rough 4-14 record in the conference. The good news is they still have star point guard Tim Frazier (18.8 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 6.2 APG, 2.4 SPG) who is a workhorse on the perimeter, leading Penn State in points, rebounds, assists and steals last season. Jermaine Marshall (10.8 PPG) and Southern Miss transfer D.J. Newbill complete a strong backcourt, but PSU will be overmatched down low on a nightly basis.

NEBRAKSA CORNHUSKERS
2011-12 SU Record: 40% (12-18)
2011-12 ATS Record: 35% (9-17)
2011-12 Over (Total): 54% (14-12)
Returning Starters: 1
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1 (Field)

The Cornhuskers get a much-needed change of direction in new head coach Tim Miles, but even he won’t be able to pull the team out of the cellar this year. Five out of the team’s six leading scorers from last season are gone, leaving only Dylan Talley (8.9 PPG, 3.3 RPG) to carry the load this year for these bottom feeders.