Other Conference Previews

SEC CONFERENCE 2012-13 PREVIEW

Predicted Order of Finish:
1. Florida
2. Kentucky
3. Missouri
4. Tennessee
5. Alabama
6. Arkansas
7. Texas A&M
8. Ole Miss
9. Georgia
10. Vanderbilt
11. LSU
12. Mississippi State
13. Auburn
14. South Carolina

FLORIDA GATORS
2010-11 SU Record: 70% (26-11)
2010-11 ATS Record: 50% (16-16)
2010-11 Over (Total): 59% (19-13)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 25/1

With another legendary Calipari recruiting class, Kentucky is the favorite yet again, but the Gators have the talent and experience to win the SEC with three returning starters from a squad that made last year’s Elite Eight and were four points shy of making the Final Four. Billy Donovan’s teams are always fun to watch and led the nation last season with 9.6 threes per game. Even though Bradley Beal isn’t back, leading scorer Kenny Boynton (15.9 PPG, 3.0 threes per game, 41% 3-pt FG) is and he should only thrive with more touches. Where the Gators become really dangerous though is in the frontcourt, a crew that can stretch any defense. Now-senior Erik Murphy (10.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG) made 1.7 threes per game last season on a 42.1% clip, making it difficult for any team to defend the 6-foot-10 athlete. Fellow big man Patric Young (10.2 PPG, 6.4 RPG) is more of a traditional post player at 6-foot-9, but makes the most of his chances down low making 61.8% of his field goals last year. He should be ready to become a dominant big as a junior, helping take this team to a conference crown. And the team even receives a solid reinforcement in the form of 6-foot-1 point guard Braxton Ogbueze, who should provide quality minutes and distribute the ball effectively.

KENTUCKY WILDCATS
2010-11 SU Record: 95% (38-2)
2010-11 ATS Record: 45% (17-21-1)
2010-11 Over (Total): 37% (14-24-0)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 12/1

Finally, John Calipari has a national championship. The question is, after sending seemingly his entire team to the NBA, can he repeat? If he can duplicate last year’s formula of turning a top recruiting class into a cohesive unit, the answer will be yes. Six-foot-10 center Nerlens Noel highlights the class as the No. 1 recruit in the nation, and he will be on watch lists for defensive player of the year honors from day one with his shot-blocking prowess. The best scorers in the class, though, may be on the wing. At 6-foot-7, small forward Alex Poythress often looks unguardable, while 6-foot-5 shooting guard Archie Goodwin can score from anywhere on the floor with a deft 3-point shot and an ability to attack the lane. Seven-foot frosh Willie Cauley-Stein will join Noel in the frontcourt along with Kyle Wiltjer (5.0 PPG in 11.6 MPG, 43% 3-pt FG), who was a top recruit in the previous class but got lost behind last year’s talent. If N.C. State transfer Ryan Harrow (9.3 PPG, 3.3 APG) can step up and effectively run the point in his sophomore season, this team will be near impossible to stop.

MISSOURI TIGERS
2010-11 SU Record: 86% (30-5)
2010-11 ATS Record: 66% (19-10-1)
2010-11 Over (Total): 66% (19-10)
Returning Starters: 1
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 30/1

In his second year coaching the Tigers and his first year in the SEC, Frank Haith will have his work cut out for him after he lost his stars to the NBA and brings back just one starter from a team that lost to No. 15 seed Norfolk State in the NCAA Tournament. That one player is among the most seasoned in the conference in Phil Pressey (10.3 PPG, 6.4 APG) who is a proven distributor. The key addition to the squad will be Connecticut transfer Alex Oriakhi (6.7 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 1.3 BPG), who is eligible to play immediately and is the type of defensive stopper needed to compete in the SEC. He is just one of three transfers who should be critical to this team’s success, alongside Keion Bell (Pepperdine) and Earnest Ross (Auburn), both of whom are effective wing scorers. Then come conference play, another transfer, former top recruit Jabari Brown (Oregon), will also be able to play. That should create an extremely talented backcourt late in the season, while the frontcourt’s success will rest on the shoulders of Laurence Bowers (11.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG) returning from an ACL injury and 6-foot-11 freshman Stefan Jankovic, who is raw, but has high upside.

TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS
2010-11 SU Record: 56% (19-15)
2010-11 ATS Record: 65% (20-11-1)
2010-11 Over (Total): 41% (12-17-2)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1

It’s difficult to criticize the job Cuonzo Martin has done so far, guiding the Volunteers to a tie for second in the SEC regular season with a 10-6 conference mark. Leading scorer and passer Trae Golden (13.6 PPG, 4.5 APG) is back running the offense again while he will be joined by his partner in crime, senior forward Jeronne Maymon (12.7 PPG, 8.1 RPG) who cleaned up the glass last season. Another key returning starter is the team’s third-leading scorer and second-leading rebounder Jarnell Stokes (9.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG, 1.4 BPG) who is supposedly in excellent shape and ready to fulfill his potential as a top-notch recruit.

ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE
2010-11 SU Record: 64% (21-12)
2010-11 ATS Record: 46% (13-15-1)
2010-11 Over (Total): 52% (15-14)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1

The Crimson Tide made waves when they secured one of the nation’s top recruits in 6-foot-7 Devonta Pollard who from the season’s first game will be a threat on the open floor. Minutes won’t be easy to come by on this team, however, with four starters returning. But Pollard’s scoring presence will be critical on a team that will sorely miss JaMychal Green and Tony Mitchell’s combined 27.1 PPG,14.4 RPG and 2.9 BPG from last season. The team still features Trevor Releford (12.0 PPG), however, who is not the best shooter (27% 3-pt FG). He is, however, a menace defensively with 2.0 SPG last year. He and senior Andrew Steele (6.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.7 APG) will form a solid backcourt, but the question is who will step up on the block. They possess two 7-footers in Carl Engstrom and Moussa Gueye, but neither has proven to be a force on the college level.

ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS
2010-11 SU Record: 56% (18-14)
2010-11 ATS Record: 38% (9-15)
2010-11 Over (Total): 50% (12-12)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1

Mike Anderson struggled in his first year with the Razorbacks, going just 6-10 in the SEC following an early-season knee injury to the team’s best player, Marshawn Powell, who scored 19.5 PPG in his two games. He’s back in the fold this season though, and this team’s potential rests in the success of his recovery, as Powell is the biggest “addition” to this team without any impact freshman joining the squad. Also returning is BJ Young (15.3 PPG, 3.1 RPG), who proved to be a prolific scorer in Powell’s absence but the depth in the backcourt remains suspect—Anderson lacks a true distributor, a necessity in his fast-paced offense. Young may emerge as an elite guard nonetheless, after making more than 50% of his field goals as a freshman, including 41.3% from three-point range.

TEXAS A&M AGGIES
2010-11 SU Record: 44% (14-18)
2010-11 ATS Record: 54% (14-12)
2010-11 Over (Total): 40% (10-15)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1

Like Frank Haith at Missouri, this is Billy Kennedy’s second year with his team and first in the SEC. But he will have a much more difficult job contending after going 14-18 last year and 4-14 in the Big 12. JUCO transfer Fabyon Harris will be tested as he makes a big leap to major conference competition while G Elston Turner (13.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG) and F Ray Turner (9.1 PPG, 5.5 RPG) will be reliable for a veteran presence and production. With two top backcourt recruits in J'Mychal Reese and Alex Caruso, this team has hope for the future, but they will need time to develop into true contenders.

OLE MISS REBELS
2010-11 SU Record: 59% (20-14)
2010-11 ATS Record: 50% (15-15-2)
2010-11 Over (Total): 53% (17-15)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 200/1

The Rebels bring back four starters from a squad that produced an 8-8 record in the SEC last season, playing in its third straight NIT. But Ole Miss still has its sights set on making the NCAA Tournament. Among those returning is senior forward Murphy Holloway (11.2 PPG, 9.0 RPG) who is a beast on the boards. Point guard Jarvis Summers (10.4 PPG, 3.4 APG) is also back after he proved to be an effective shooter in his freshman campaign, hitting 43.6% of his shots from deep. SG Nick Williams averaged 10.1 PPG, but shot just 41% from the floor and 32% from downtown.

GEORGIA BULLDOGS
2010-11 SU Record: 47% (15-17)
2010-11 ATS Record: 46% (13-15)
2010-11 Over (Total): 44% (12-15)
Returning Starters: 4
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 200/1

The Bulldogs bring back four starters from a team that took a big step back last year, sinking below .500 and winning just five conference games. Last year’s leading scorer Gerald Robinson is gone, meaning even more of the scoring onus will fall on Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (13.2 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.8 SPG), who at 6-foot-5 is a high-usage player that should embrace more shooting chances. Also keep an eye out for 6-foot-9 forward Donte’ Williams (7.8 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 1.6 BPG) who could be poised for a breakout year down low.

VANDERBILT COMMODORES
2010-11 SU Record: 69% (25-11)
2010-11 ATS Record: 56% (18-14)
2010-11 Over (Total): 41% (13-19)
Returning Starters: 5
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 200/1

All five starters who guided the Commodores to a 10-6 conference record last year and an SEC Tournament title (beating 30-1 Kentucky), including the conference’s leading scorer John Jenkins, are gone. Now head coach Kevin Stallings will have to rely on G Kedren Johnson (3.1 PPG in 14.5 MPG) and under-the-radar freshmen swingmen Sheldon Jeter, Kevin Bright and A.J. Astroth. The latter two have the potential to become effective scorers, but they will need time, as will this entire team of unproven talent.

LSU TIGERS
2010-11 SU Record: 55% (18-15)
2010-11 ATS Record: 60% (18-12)
2010-11 Over (Total): 43% (13-17)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 200/1

The Tigers were the conference’s surprise last year after adding seven games to their win total from the previous season, but they will start from scratch this season with head coach Johnny Jones. He gets back three starters from last year’s squad, including 5-foot-9 guard Andre Stringer (10.1 PPG, 2.7 APG) who must improve on his 34.9% FG in order to become this team’s true leader. The player who might need to step up most is 6-foot-9 sophomore forward Johnny O’Bryant III (8.5 PPG, 6.7 RPG), who displayed great potential in his first go around, but experienced the same struggle with efficiency as Stringer, making just 39.9% of his field goals. Well-rounded Anthony Hickey (8.9 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 3.8 APG) rejoins Stringer in the backcourt, but he couldn't make a basket from anywhere on the floor (38.4% FG, 31.4% threes) including a dreadful 55.3% on his free throws.

MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS
2010-11 SU Record: 64% (21-12)
2010-11 ATS Record: 44% (14-18)
2010-11 Over (Total): 55% (17-14)
Returning Starters: 0
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 200/1

This will be a big transitional year for the Bulldogs under first-year head coach Rick Ray, who will have to contend with a team returning no starters after freshman Rodney Hood transferred to Duke. The one returning body of note is Jalen Steele (8.7 PPG) who got the starting nod in some of the games last year. Six-foot-9 senior C Wendell Lewis (4.0 RPG) will also be thrust into the spotlight and will be forced to take more shots after making 62.5% FG last year in limited opportunities.

AUBURN TIGERS
2010-11 SU Record: 48% (15-16)
2010-11 ATS Record: 58% (14-10)
2010-11 Over (Total): 38% (9-15)
Returning Starters: 3
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 100/1 (Field)

The Tigers finished below .500 last year but undoubtedly took a step forward (four-win improvement) and finally have a glimmer of hope. In his third season, head coach Tony Barbee brings in two top recruits who should make an immediate impact in the SEC. Shooting guard Jordan Price has the physical tools to become a star at 6-foot-5 while small forward Shaquille Johnson is among the best pure athletes in the freshman class. And with last year’s leading scorer Frankie Sullivan (12.6 PPG, 3.9 RPG) back in the fold, this team should be able to remain competitive in most conference games and not be completely embarrassed by the SEC elite.

SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS
2010-11 SU Record: 32% (10-21)
2010-11 ATS Record: 42% (11-15)
2010-11 Over (Total): 68% (17-8)
Returning Starters: 2
Odds to win 2012 NCAA Championship: 200/1

The Gamecocks hit a new low last season after posting just two SEC wins, but should have positive change on the way in the form of new head coach Frank Martin. He’ll have to contend with a transfer-depleted roster, and wait for last year’s leading passer Bruce Ellington (11.0 PPG, 3.1 APG) to finish football season. The team's hopes down low will rely mostly with 7-foot freshman Laimonas Chatkevicius, while Southern Miss transfer LaShay Page will need to make an immediate impact.