Welcome: Login to StatFox |  Register |  Login to FoxSheets
StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

NASCAR heads to Phoenix on Sunday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 11/11/2012  at  4:34:00 AM
  Print This Article    

NASCAR Sprint Cup Series
Kobalt Tools 500

Sunday, November 11 – 2:00 p.m. EDT
Phoenix International Speedway – Avondale, AZ

Just two races remain in NASCAR’s Chase for the Cup. This Sunday the drivers start their engines in the desert at Phoenix International Speedway. This 1-mile, tri-oval intermediate track was built in 1964 with a small degree of banking on the turns (11 degrees at Turns 1-2 and 9 degrees at Turns 3-4). The backstretch is also 9 degrees of banking, and measures 1,551 feet (0.29 miles), while the frontstretch is a mere 3 degrees, measuring 1,179 feet (0.22 miles). Kyle Busch will start from the pole, while current points leader Jimmie Johnson will start 24th, 10 spots worse than Brad Keselowski, who trails Johnson by just seven points in the standings.

Odds to Win Race

(For the latest Odds, connect to Sportsbook.com)

DriverOdds
Jimmie Johnson4-to-1
Denny Hamlin4-to-1
Kyle Busch9-to-2
Kasey Kahne7-to-1
Brad Keselowski8-to-1
Martin Truex Jr.10-to-1
Tony Stewart12-to-1
Jeff Gordon12-to-1
Clint Bowyer15-to-1
Mark Martin15-to-1
Dale Earnhardt Jr.20-to-1
Kevin Harvick25-to-1
Carl Edwards25-to-1
Matt Kenseth30-to-1
Greg Biffle30-to-1
Kurt Busch30-to-1
Joey Logano50-to-1
Aric Almirola60-to-1
Ryan Newman60-to-1
Paul Menard75-to-1
Jeff Burton100-to-1
Sam Hornish Jr.100-to-1
Marcos Ambrose100-to-1
Juan Montoya200-to-1
Jamie McMurray200-to-1
Bobby Labonte500-to-1
Regan Smith500-to-1
Danica Patrick500-to-1
Travis Kvapil500-to-1
Field (Any other driver)500-to-1

Drivers to Watch

Tony Stewart (12/1) - It's been a long time since Stewart won at Phoenix -- 1999 to be exact -- but he's been knocking on the door recently with top-7 finishes in three of his past six starts in Arizona. He's also finishing this season strong as well, with a pair of top-5's in the past three races. At 12-to-1 odds, he has the best value on the board here and is our pick to win on Sunday.

Jimmie Johnson (4/1) - Not only has he been surging when it counts the most this season, but Johnson has been outstanding in Phoenix, finishing fifth or better in 10 of his past 11 starts at this track. This span includes four victories. But going back to this season, the current points leader has placed fourth or better in six of his past eight races, including two straight victories. The odds here are pretty miniscule at 4-to-1, but you have to think Johnson will at least finish in the top-5, which makes those odds look much more tantalizing.

Brad Keselowski (8/1) - His odds are actually a bit longer than one might expect for such a hot driver. Keselowski has had a ridiculous 16 top-10's in his past 18 starts. This includes two victories and a runner-up during the Chase. But although he finished fifth in Phoenix earlier this season, that was the only great showing he's ever had at this track. His other five starts in Phoenix have ended up in 37th, 42nd, 16th, 15th and 18th. This poor track history makes him no better than a one-unit wager on Sunday.

Carl Edwards (25/1) - He continues to be a non-factor this season, but has performed very well in Phoenix in his career with an average finish of 12.6 and six top-5's in his past 13 starts, including a victory in 2010. Edwards is always dangerous on intermediate tracks, as 60% of his career races at this type of venue have resulted in top-10 finishes, including 17 trips to victory lane. At 25-to-1, he's worthy of a small wager on Sunday.

Ryan Newman (60/1) - If you like to try your luck with longshots, Newman is your man. Before his disappointing 21st place showing at Phoenix earlier this year, he rattled off finishes of 2, 1, 5 and 5 in the previous four races at this track, despite a starting spot no better than 14th. And it's not like Newman has been terrible in 2012, knocking out one win, four top-5's and a dozen top-10 finishes. At 60-to-1, he could bring a huge payout here.

Live Scores and Odds
Tired of Losing? Get a Free 30 day trial.
Daily Cash Game

FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: