NASCAR Sprint Cup SeriesSunday, November 18 – 2:00 p.m. EDT
Ford EcoBoost 400
Homestead-Miami Speedway – Homestead, FL
A new Sprint Cup Champion will be crowned on Sunday, either Brad Keselowski or Jimmie Johnson, when the NASCAR season concludes at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Even if Johnson wins the race, Keselowski just has to finish 15th or better to win his first career Sprint Cup Points Championship. This 1.5-mile, oval intermediate track was completed in 1995 with 18-20 degrees of banking on the turns, but just four degrees of banking on the straights. The frontstretch and backstretch both measure 1,760 feet (one-third of a mile). Tony Stewart is the defending champion of this race.
Odds to Win Race(For the latest Odds, connect to Sportsbook.com)
|Martin Truex Jr.||10-to-1|
|Dale Earnhardt Jr.||18-to-1|
|Field (Any other driver)||50-to-1|
|Sam Hornish Jr.||100-to-1|
Drivers to WatchGreg Biffle (8/1) - Biffle has won three times at Homestead, taking the checkered flag in 2004, 2005 and 2006. And although engine problems caused him to finish 35th at Homestead last year, he placed 10th in 2010. The No. 16 car has also raced near the front of the pack in his past six starts, knocking out five top-10's, including a 7th-place finish last week. He also has a respectable average finish of 13.5 in the past four races on tracks of this length (1.5 miles). The payout isn't great, but Biffle is our choice to end the 2012 NASCAR season with a victory.
Jimmie Johnson (4/1) - He's clearly the favorite in this race, needing a win to even have an outside shot at his sixth points championship. Johnson has never won at this track, but he's been very close with runner-ups in 2010 and 2004, which came one year after a third-place finish. And before his shocking 32nd-place finish last week, Johnson had top-4 finishes in six of his previous eight races during the Chase for the Cup. He also has a miniscule 3.8 average finish in his past four races on 1.5-mile circuits. The 4-to-1 odds are pretty terrible, but all things being equal, nobody has a better chance to take home the checkered flag than Johnson does.
Kevin Harvick (30/1) - Last week's winner in Phoenix represents the best value on the board at 30-to-1. Harvick has finished outside the top-10 just twice in 11 career starts at Homestead, placing 2nd, 3rd, 3rd and 8th in his past four starts at this track. And now that his 44-race winless skid is over, he will be more relaxed behind the wheel and drive with nothing to lose.
Tony Stewart (15/1) - Stewart is never one to give up the spotlight, and there's nothing he'd like more than a big payday to end his disappointing follow-up season (9th place in standings) after his 2011 points championship. He's obviously had plenty of success at Homestead, earning his third win (and seventh top-10) in the 13-year history of the track last season to clinch the points title. A pair of fifth-place finishes in his past four races this year shows he's still racing hard, and Stewart represents great value at 15-to-1 odds.
Jeff Burton (300/1) - As longshots go, this one is pretty hefty at 300-to-1. But Burton has four top-4 finishes at Homestead in his career including a runner-up pretty recently in 2009, and a 10th-place showing last year. He's also shown improvement in each of his past three races, going from 28th place to 22nd to 19th to 13th place last week. All the more reason to lay down a one-unit wager and hope your NASCAR season ends with some serious fireworks.