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StatFox says:
Good day everyone, the NCAA Tournament is rapidly approaching, and the StatFox King of the Dance contest is helping to ramp up the madness, but there's still some business to take care of before Selection Sunday, namely the conference tournaments. We're here today in this edition of the StatFox Scuffle to focus on those intriguing brackets. The major conference tourneys are often overshadowed by all the talk of bubble teams, who's in or out, and which teams will be seeded where in the Big Dance. Still, the tourney games on tap for the rest of this week are very captivating and worthy of your handicapping attention. Our own resident experts certainly won't stand idle. So with that in mind, I welcome back in StatFox Doug & StatFox Steve to discuss the remaining conferece tournaments. Good day guys and welcome back to the StatFox Scuffle. Are you ready for the madness? StatFox Doug says:
Ready, I've watched or taped over 120 CBB games to date and feel I'm ready to roll in all the conference tourneys. This is not an easy time to make money, since the oddsmakers are keyed in by now, but there’s still plenty of great opportunity. How are you Steven? StatFox Steve says:
Very good Douglass, thanks for asking. As far as madness is concerned, I get enough of that at home with my three young children, but I am ready for some wall-to-wall basketball action. In my opinion, these two weeks of basketball we're in now are rivaled only by college football bowl season. Anyway Doug, pick a conference and let's get this fired up. StatFox Doug says:
We’ll start with the Big East, since it is first out of the box on Wednesday. The first day has three intriguing contests, highlighted by the Hoyas and Notre Dame. G-Town is off ugly loss to USF. I'm expecting a close game, with Irish losing another heartbreaker. In quarters, I see Pittsburgh with very minor upset of West Virginia. I like UConn and Villanova to make it to Finals, with UConn cutting downthe nets. What are your thoughts Steve? StatFox Steve says:
You know, on the surface, this year's Big East first round looks comparable to a round of 32 or sweet 16 bracket! The game that intrigues me is Cincy-Syracuse, a battle of two underachievers (both 7 games under .500 ATS), both possibly desperate. I think Syracuse's desperation is a bit greater and their Big East experience will be enough to eek out a win here. As far as the rest of the day one games go, I give Notre Dame and Louisville both good shots at advancing on upsets. Both are playing decent ball down the stretch, and both could therefore be good ATS plays. I think Seton Hall gets it done in the other one. When it’s all said and done though, UConn & Villanova are on a collision course for Saturday night at MSG! UConn takes it. Let's move to the Pac 10... StatFox Doug says:
The first round games are a couple of who gives a hoot, that's the word I'm looking for. Day 2 I like Stanford to upset Arizona without Hassan Adams, who must have had too many Samuel Adams! Cardinal is 7-4 ATS on the road. I believe UCLA wins but does not cover against Arizona State, with Washington and Cal winning. UCLA beats Stanford in a spread that may be worth a look for underdog Stanford. Huskies squeeze by Cal. In minor upset, Washington beats UCLA by four points. That's why I'm taking Washington at 7-4 to win at SportsBook.net. Steve, you’re up. StatFox Steve says:
Man…we must be reading the same stuff because I'm with you on this one too. Washington's 7-4 odds at Sportsbook look attractive to me as well. They are easily the league's hottest team right now, and I always believe you can tell a lot from point differential. UW is a +14, UCLA is a +9. That's a pretty big difference between #1 & #2 in a conference. However, UCLA's "home town" advantage could help. Elsewhere, I love your take on the whole Hassan Adams-Samuel Adams thing! You're right, that incident opens the door for a team like Stanford, who has talent and experience but has underachieved. The wonderful thing about these tourneys for teams like Stanford is that all it takes is one good three-day stretch of basketball to forget 4 months. Who knows? The Cardinal could be a surprise. StatFox Doug says:
Let's not get carried away hangin' the TREE. Stanford lost 12 games for a reason. What do you have next? StatFox Steve says:
Why don't we slip on over to the Big 12. Not as captivating of a tournament as in past years’, but still enough storylines to care. Texas looks like a prohibitive favorite at 4-5 according to Sportsbook.com, but Kansas' youth movement could be a challenge. However, I could also easily see Kansas getting upset early in this tourney by the Okie St-Iowa St winner. Two of the interesting games to watch here will be A&M & Colorado, both bubble teams needing wins. Colorado struggles away from home (4-7 SU outscored by 4.9 PPG) and was just 6-10 ATS in conference play. The Aggies are a bit closer to home in Dallas, and are looking for their first tourney bid in a long time. They could be a surprise in this tourney. Thoughts? StatFox Doug says:
Actually I like Baylor with the points against the Buffs. Bears are a much better team than when they played Colorado back in January. I'd love to play against Oklahoma except for the two teams that could advance are Missouri and Nebraska. I think Texas and Kansas are on collision course in rather dull Big 12 tourney. In fact aren't most Big 12 tournaments boring. Off hand I can think of very few memorable games. The SEC is more wild than ever this year. Proceed Steve, with caution. StatFox Steve says:
I'd like to echo your thoughts first on the Big 12...pretty sorry year for that conference. Teams like Texas Tech, Iowa State, Okie State, very disappointing seasons. Do you realize that only 3 of the 12 teams have winning road marks from this "power" league. Pretty sad and I look at Kansas' success and wonder if it's more a function of league futility than anything the Jayhawks did? StatFox Doug says:
Excellent point, when you consider they started 4-5. StatFox Steve says:
Alright, on to the SEC. Another crappy league, but I think we've beaten that point one time before. There's a reason this league never does anything in the big tournament: lack of discipline. The SEC higher seeds are ALWAYS on my short list of potential upsets in the NCAA's. Teams like Alabama, LSU, Florida, Arkansas, Kentucky...these are the potentially ripe teams for 2006. I actually like Tennessee, they are playing with a fire that the others aren't. StatFox Doug says:
First Steve you are missing the point about this conference. They have raised the academic standards to all be like Vanderbilt. That is why the SEC can't recruit the same player as before. I mean when Northern Iowa goes down to Baton Rouge and beats the best team in the league, what does that tell you. Of course I'm goofing about improved standards. Too many players have left these schools early leaving the cupboard bare. I'm waiting until Thursday morning and hope I get better odds on a field bet on the SEC. I have Kentucky beating Alabama and Tennessee to play in Finals. I love Arkansas to beat Florida and nearly defeat LSU. I would not be surprised if that happened however. With the Wildcats being the surprise winner in the SEC. StatFox Steve says:
Wow...interesting. I just don't see it with Kentucky. In fact, I find it a travesty that folks like Jay Bilas are calling teams like the Wildcats and Alabama as better tournament hopefuls than those from the Missouri Valley. I could go on forever about my lack of basketball respect for this football conference but I won't. As far as this year's tourney goes, a surprise could be Vandy. Playing in Nashville, this VERY streaky shooting team is capable of putting a run together if they shoot streaky good in the first game or two, since they will be playing back to back for four straight days if need be. I like South Carolina in the first game of them all, and Tennessee to win it. StatFox Doug says:
I think the Tennessee goose is cooked. This team has been milked for all it is worth. If I can find 5 or 6 points I'm playing against your Gamecocks. They've lost four of five and looked dead. I just think all these teams have flaws and the favorites have a long history of not making it. What conference suits your fancy next? StatFox Steve says:
Why don't we head on down to Greensboro for the ACC... StatFox Doug says:
I've been to Greensboro, nice town. StatFox Steve says:
Probably is. I'd like to be headed there this weekend! This could be a very competitive ACC Tournament this year, and I can clearly see some value on the underdogs here with Duke at 1-1 odds. Just off the bat, Boston College at 5-1 odds has been a fairly quiet 24-6 SU this season. They are 13-2 in their last 15 games, and have big men with games unmatched in this league when it comes to versatility. I wouldn't be surprised to see them in the final on Sunday. UNC is of course playing well, but the youth is again a concern, especially if they do meet up with veteran BC. In the first round, without seeing any lines yet, I call for ugly endings to the ugly seasons at Wake and G Tech. FSU & Maryland pound em' by double digits. StatFox Doug says:
Did you steal my notes? I too like BC to get to the Finals, for exactly the reasons you mention. I believe Florida State will beat N.C. State who is carrening off the road. Speaking of the Seminoles, have you seen this Al Thornton? This junior is the most athletic player I have seen all year. His abilities are still raw, but what an upside this guy could have. If I could pretend to be Coach K, I would not have had my team practice until Wednesday. This is a very good basketball team that lacks athletes. Whatever is wrong with J.J., you can be sure it is something. I believe Sheldon Williams is over-rated, especially as a defender. Duke and BC in very tight ballgame. StatFox Steve says:
Good call. I'm not sure Redick is capable of carrying this team on his back much longer, and back to Florida State for a second...why are the Seminoles on the bubble and Kentucky is supposedly in. That's a friggin joke, almost as big of a joke as the NIT allowing sub-.500 teams now. Congrats Wake Forest. Man, I'm on a binge here against bad teams living off their pasts. Speaking of teams of the past, remember when Michigan State used to be an automatic trip to the Big Ten Finals each year? StatFox Doug says:
Well guess what, I think they are going back again! They have nice turnaround situation with my Illini team. I believe Iowa is very beatable away from Iowa City. I look for your Badgers to fall against suddenly hot Indiana. That sets up Ohio State vs. Michigan State final. This Ohio State has slowly crept up and kinda has that Final Four look about them. I know the Spartans are softer then Charmin inside, I just think the tournament sets up for them. StatFox Steve says:
Not bad. Izzo knows how to get this team ready for March. That quarterfinal game between MSU and Illinois will be one to see. I also think whoever gets out of that game gets to the final. Unfortunately, I also agree with your assessment of Wisconsin. This Badgers team is going the wrong way. Do you realize that Wisky hasn't shot over 50% from the floor since January 8th? Wow. Plus, Indiana still needs a win or two and is playing in front of the home folks. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hoosiers make a run. In one other potential "upset", watch out for Minnesota to take out Michigan. The Wolverines just aren't the same team right now that they were earlier. Beyond that, the Gophers handled Iowa fairly easily last time out, so that would be an interesting quarterfinal matchup as well. StatFox Doug says:
Michigan has two things against them. Injuries and Tommy Amaker as coach. StatFox Steve says:
Hah...looking at it, Minnesota is actually 5-4 SU & 5-3-1 ATS in thier last nine games. Michigan is 3-6 SU & 2-6-1 ATS in that same span. Plus, of course, the Tommy Amaker factor! StatFox Doug says:
I'll agree but won't play Minnesota anywhere outside of "The Barn." StatFox Steve says:
When the Big Ten Tourney is said and done, I'd be surprised if Ohio State, at 7-5 odds, is cutting down the nets. Just not completely sold on the Buckeyes yet. Maybe if they prove me wrong this weekend, I'll retract my doubts. How 'bout you? StatFox Doug says:
Actually I'm a believer. Like I said, I think Ohio State has the right components to get to the Final Four. By the way, I did realize Wisky was shooting terribly. Reminded me of you shooting free throws. (Dig dig) StatFox Steve says:
Ha, ha. 73.7% Senior Year! Anyway Doug, before we split, three mid-majors are yet on tap, the Atlantic 10, the Mountain West, and Conference USA. Give me the tourney winner and a sleeper in each... StatFox Doug says:
Actually made over 80% my last two years of HS. Coach made us shoot 100 a day. I'd take you on tomorrow Steve, my friend. In the MWC, I'd lean with SD. State based on talent. BYU would be my upset champion. In the A-10, I like Charlotte to beat GW with no pretenders. Finally, Memphis plays at home, thus how do you not take them. I might play against the Tigers a time or two once I see the spreads however. What about you? StatFox Steve says:
I swear we copied each other's pre-scuffle notes today, that means I could be in trouble this weekend. I also like Memphis, and won't even entertain the thought of a sleeper since the Tigers will be looking for payback for last year's three missed free throws disappointment. In the A-10, I also like Charlotte's chances if they can get by my sleeper Xavier. The Musketeers are the 10th seed but experienced and clearly not worse than 9 other teams. However, in the Mountain West, I have to think Air Force, apparently still on the bubble (another friggin’ bracketology joke) will get it done, with San Diego State potentially standing in the way. StatFox Doug says:
I'm 8-4 so far in Conference Tournament play, looking to just maintain that pace for the rest of the week. Good Luck to everyone! StatFox Steve says:
Whew...I'm tired. This was good, I'm totally pumped now for the weekend. Looking forward to Wednesday afternoon, when it all starts. It's been fun...CYA
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