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StatFox says:
Hello everybody and welcome back to another year of exciting tournament action. The madness is already underway thanks to Monmouth's thrashing of Hampton last night in the qualifying game. Incidentally, Monmouth, a 6-point opening favorite in that contest, easily covered the number. That leads us into today's StatFox Scuffle topic, favorites in the opening round. By now, you've probably heard all you need to about which underdogs, or Cinderella’s can pull the upset on Thursday or Friday, but has anyone talked about the betting angle of which favorites are most likely to grab the money? Truthfully, very few have, so we are here today to do so. StatFox Doug & StatFox Steve have each picked a group of games in which they feel comfortable laying the chalk. So let's get to it. I welcome back StatFox Doug & StatFox Steve to discuss opening round favorites in this edition of the StatFox Scuffle. Good day guys and welcome back. We're less than 24 hours till the "official start" of the tournament, I hope you're ready! StatFox Doug says:
Good Day, Mr. Littlepage, sorry about Packer and Nantz acting like they should have been on the committee. Maybe they were just angry form watching that boring Big Ten Tourney. Hey Steve, Mr. Littlepage is correct everybody loves the underdog. However, given the choice do you buy stock from Microsoft or invest in some invention from that new TV show. Kansas chant is all about betting Rock "Chalk"
Jayhawk. StatFox Steve says:
Good morning Doug, good morning Mr. Littlepage? Wow, we get a different moderator every week, how exciting. From your opener Doug, I can see you're in rare form today! After a rather comedic (comedy of errors) selection show on Sunday, I'm all fired up to get this thing going. Upsets are fun and all, but I have an old saying, well actually I just made it up, and it goes something like this...They who upset in the first round will be upset (sad) themselves in a game or two. Simply put, the favorites in this round are the ones who are capable of reach Indianapolis. Let's get this going by taking a look at one of your favorites to take that first step... StatFox Doug says:
We will start with the very first game on Thursday Seton Hall and Wichita State. If Cincinnati was really upset about not getting into the tournament, all they had to do is blame a fellow conference member for stealing a spot. Seton Hall was 3-6 down the stretch including losing a nailbiter to UConn by 43 AT HOME! Evidently they must have gotten inside information about already being in the NCAA's, losing to a well below average Rutgers squad the first day of the Big East tourney. Wichita State won the MVC and lost a hot Bradley team. The Pirates shoot 39.5% on the road and the Shockers make 39.7% from behind the arc. Put the first game of the day in the win column baby. StatFox Steve says:
In this case Doug, I'm not going to be able to argue. If there is an undeserving team in the field, it's Seton Hall, though sometimes that can be all the motivation a team needs. However, with everything considered, I'd agree, Wichita State is at least 2 points better than Seton Hall, probably closer to 4. I likely won't play it though, as the Shockers have little tourney experience and melted down the stretch as well. StatFox Doug says:
Winning the conference and going 5-2 is melting? You’re tough to please. Whom do you like? StatFox Steve says:
I'm just saying, Wichita State's 3-7 ATS mark down the stretch, highlighted by brutal shooting efforts has cast some doubt. Anyway, moving on, I'd like to take a look at the Texas-Pennsylvania game. Longhorns are a 14-1/2 point favorite, coincidentally the same amount they laid to Texas Tech in Big 12 tourney. Something tells me Tech would beat Penn. With all respect to the FoxSheet for this game, I could easily see a rout here. I think it is impossible to simulate how unathletic and untalented the Ivy League is. Everyone keeps thinking this is 1996 when Princeton upset UCLA. Since then, the Ivy League is 0-8 SU & ATS in the tournament. StatFox Doug says:
I think you are right. It only depends about the Longhorns level of interest after they see Penn warm-up. If Texas is on the floor laughing it might not be good sign. Penn struggled at the end in Ivy action not covering last five games. Texas by anywhere from 10- 25 points. StatFox Steve says:
Ironically, I like playing big favorites in the first round that I don't think are going that far. The overconfidence of a first round pummeling is $ down the road. I think Texas could fit that bill. Now, with that said, if the Longhorns eek out a win here, they could be a good bet in the next game or two. What's next on your docket? StatFox Doug says:
I'll stick with Thursday and look at Nevada. Montana is a high scoring team from the Big Sky Conference. Nevada is tournament tested the last few years. The Wolfpack have won 14 straight, covering 10 times. In common opponents, Nevada outscored the teams they played by 8 PPG, while Montana was outscored by 5 PPG. Open the LazyBoy wide open and relax in this spot. StatFox Steve says:
Interesting. I would argue that Montana has a few things going for it. The Grizzlies shoot the ball very well, from 2 & 3 pt land. They get good shots. They also are a team that gained good experience in giving Washington a scare last year. Nevada meanwhile, is used to playing as the "Cinderella". They've been a 9 or 10 seed in recent tourneys. How they react as a #5 will be key. That aspect has had a negative impact on teams like Gonzaga in the past. StatFox Doug says:
In theory I'd agree, however Gonzaga failed in the first round because they expected to be a higher seed. Teams from the WAC do not have those expectations as a quote "national program." Now is that Lazy Boy leather or fabric? Steve, please continue.... StatFox Steve says:
I'd like to take a look at the defending runners-up: Illinois. They play Air Force on Thursday in San Diego. In truth, Air Force would have been much better served not having to take on a team with the rebounding, discipline, and defensive prowess of Illinois. Granted, I like Air Force and thought they could have been a "Cinderella", but just not against Illinois. Had they matched up against Washington, Tennessee, or your Nevada squad, I think things would have been different. StatFox Doug says:
I'm a big Illini fan and generally agree with everything you say. Too often I've seen Illinois let the opposition dictate tempo away from home. I'm not saying your wrong, it is just the inconsistent effort from too many players. Key is first half. If the Orange Crush get up 8-10 points, game, set and match. Otherwise the number could be dicey. Next up, I have Georgetown. Northern Iowa was 2-4 last six and fell from 1st place on Feb. 12 to 5th place in MVC. Georgetown should have been in Big East Final. UNI will try to control tempo, but the Hoyas are too long and athletic for this Valley squad. It's Friday afternoon for this one, thus you can start celebrating early. StatFox Steve says:
Are you giving a victory cheer after every game you provide an opinion on? StatFox Doug says:
Should I make a timid statement? Well I sorta might think I like this or that team. Playing favorites takes confidence Steve, if you don't believe, why are you playing them? Please continue with your far more well thought out James Bond cool approach. StatFox Steve says:
I've heard women say that confidence is sexy, well it's certainly not on you! Plus, in this instance, your confidence is misplaced. Northern Iowa has taken baby steps in each of the last two tourneys, covering both first round games, and now reaching a higher level seeding in three straight years. This team is simply ready to win this one. I liken this game's feel a lot to when NIU won at LSU, a similar team to Georgetown. I've always felt Northern Iowa was the best team in the MVC this year. They will prove it Friday, much to your dismay. StatFox Doug says:
First before you go off so cocksure, NIU stands for Northern Illinois University not Northern Iowa. (see above UNI) The Panthers have shot better than 44% just once since Feb. 7. Unless they make 10 or more 3's, Hoyas Hysteria rules. StatFox Steve says:
Hoyas Hysteria? Yikes. UNI, NIU, what's the difference, either way it's still a big W. On to my next spot: Washington, taking on Utah State, who has been much better in previous seasons. In all honesty, I hate taking Pac 10 teams like Washington, but they are simply the far better team in this matchup, and only laying 6. I also think the Pac 10 tourney early loss will be a wakeup call. This is actually one of the few games where the price matches the Outplay Factor Ratings for the favorite. Wash is a +13.8, USU (Hopefully its not UUS) is a +7.9. The Huskies have a star in Brandon Roy, and the Aggies finished the year on a 1-7 ATS run. Enough reasons? StatFox Doug says:
I actually agree with you here. The Huskies rolled over like a dog in blowing game to Oregon in Pac-10 semis. Utah State got in, according to reports, by taking Nevada to OT before losing. Still the Aggies are 2-10 ATS in March games over the last 3 seasons. Huskies mush to easy cover. My last game features Big 10(11) disappointment Michigan State. I don't think I've ever seen a team as tired as the Spartans were against Iowa. Billy Packer was correct in all the Michigan State shots hitting the front of the rim. I've seen George Mason play, and without starting guard Tony Skinn, who is suspended for kicking a Hofstra player in the "groin area", there’s not enough scoring options. Can't see a Tom Izzo team losing in this situation. Spartans make 3's and free throws to win by 10 points. StatFox Steve says:
I can't go out on the limb far enough to actually take George Mason, but something isn't right here. Even though most of the same players are around, this is NOT the same Michigan State team as last year and they WILL NOT make the same run. I'm not sure Mason is put together enough without Skinn to win this one, but I wouldn't be backing State that hard. StatFox Doug says:
My guess is most the public money coming in on George Mason has no idea that Skinn is suspended. What do you like next? StatFox Steve says:
The last game I'd like to talk about is the other Mountain West-Big Ten duel between Indiana and San Diego State. I guess I just don't understand this line, particularly when you compare it to the Air Force-Illinois line. Indiana -2??? Come on, the conference difference alone should be worth 3-4 points. Indiana is playing well, they get after it defensively, and are playing now with a purpose. Meanwhile, San Diego State couldn't hit the broadside of a barn last weekend. Perhaps it was just a bad weekend, but I don't think so. Indiana locks em' down en route to a 7 point win here, then, to take a line from you, you can go to bed feeling good about yourself Thursday night. StatFox Doug says:
Well it will not be pleasant dreams for you my friend. Granted this will not a "Legends" coaching match-up, but I'm supporting the better athletes in this one. The reason the line is -2 at Sportbook.com for Indiana is because they are not that good. Aztecs have two NBA players in Marcus Slaughter and Brandon Heath. This team runs the floor well and plays equally well both inside and out. SD State cures shooting woes and wins late by a bucket. StatFox Steve says:
Anyone can look like an NBA player against Wyoming, TCU, etc. I'll take Big Ten any day. BTW...Big Ten owns best tourney conference ATS record at 69-49 ATS since '98 (58%). Anything else to add before we shut this down? StatFox Doug says:
Have you thought about applying at the Big Ten office. You would make a terrific spokesperson. The Hoosiers have to travel to elevation and make that adjustment. The Aztecs play all their road games in the conference other then now TCU and UNLV at a higher altitude. For the record, anyone who has any complaints about this article call StatFox and ask for Steve. Good Luck in the first round, sounds like you might need it. StatFox Steve says:
All that elevation stuff is overrated CRAP. The more important "E" word is execution, something the Big Ten is famous for. Anyway, before we sign off, a couple trend notes on favorites: Chalk covers only about 46% of the time in the NCAA's. Favs of 3 or less are just 43%, and double-digit favs were 5-12 ATS last year, meaning favs of 3.5-9.5 are usually the most reliable. Keep that in mind Doug and you might actually have at least “One Shining Moment” in your betting this year, but I doubt it. Good luck
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