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Thursday Games - In the Atlanta Regional the first game will feature top seeded Duke against LSU. In typical Duke fashion, the Blue Devils systematically beat Southern U. and yielded the George Washington press ineffective. The Blue Devils received contributions from freshmen Josh McRoberts and Greg Paulus in the win over the Colonials. In order for Duke to keep winning these two must continue to be heard from. LSU was taken out of their element by Texas A&M and was very fortunate to advance. The Tigers hold a rebounding edge over Duke and will to play to that advantage, with a +9 differential compared to the Blue Devils -3. LSU will need to pound the ball inside to Glen Davis and attack the glass. Even though LSU prefers to play more of an up-tempo game like Duke, it was noticeable how tired the entire Bengal Tigers team was in the last few minutes against the Aggies. If LSU can get Sheldon Williams in early foul trouble they could have a shot at the upset. Unless LSU can find a way to play better defense against the three ball, since they allow 37.9% on the road, J.J. Redick and others could have a field day. Duke averages 8 three’s a game at a 39.4% clip.
Line Duke -6.5, Total 147.5 (Lines from SportsInterAction.com) The first contest in the Oakland region will have the impressive Memphis Tigers against the upstart Bradley Braves. Coming into the tournament Memphis was considered the weakest of the top seeds and yet is the only one to win and cover both their opening games. The Tigers may be peaking at the right time with six straight wins and four consecutive covers. In Memphis win over Bucknell, they thoroughly took the Bison out of their preferred style of offense and forced Bucknell into 19 turnovers. No team left in the tournament is more explosive and exciting to watch when they have the ball then John Calipari’s team. It was no fluke that Bradley beat both Kansas and Pittsburgh. In each game Bradley took a commanding lead and survived the higher seeds best shots during the course of the game and defeated them in the end. The Braves 7-foot sophomore Patrick O’Bryant is improving right before our eyes, as Bradley has been at full throttle in winning 9 of 10, with 8-1-1 ATS record. What it interesting about Bradley are the options. Whether it’s O’Bryant or Marcellus Sommerville in the paint, or Tony Bennett and Lawrence Wright doing from the wings, Bradley executes the offense with precision. Jim Les team played in the tremendously competitive Missouri Valley which has proven it deserved all the accolades thrown upon them. One thing the Valley can not prepare you for is the speed and quickness of the Tigers that goes 10 deep. Bradley must continue to control the pace of the game, because if Memphis starts running all the Braves will be doing is chasing.
Line Memphis -7, Total 141.5 (Lines from SportsInterAction.com)
West Virginia makes a return visit to the Sweet 16 and looks to make amends for a November loss to the Longhorns. The Mountaineers had that game won and lost due to poor free throwing shooting in the last two minutes. Despite falling to a 6th seed by losing 5 of their last 7 games, West Virginia came away fairly lucky in the draw, facing a offensively challenged Southern Illinois squad and an emotionally spent Northwestern State team. Coach John Beilein’s team will need Mike Gansey to be at full strength to advance to the Elite 8 for a second straight year. The senior has had trouble with his shot thus far in the tourney and also has suffered from cramps over the past couple of weeks. This is a very different Mountaineers team when he's not both on the court and active. Texas becomes simpler to understand as the year progress. If forward Brad Buckman is involved and guards Daniel Gibson and A.J. Abrams are knocking down 3’s, the Longhorns are a lock. If LaMarcus Alridge is in foul trouble or powerful P.J. Tucker’s team-mates refuse to pass him the orange, Texas losses. The Longhorns are 3-7 ATS the last ten games and still appear to be emotionally fragile. If West Virginia can use the same formula they had earlier in the season, an upset is possible.
Line Texas -3.5, Total 131.5 (Lines from SportsInterAction.com)
Thursday’s final game is a Left Coast special. The Pac-10’s best team takes on media darling Gonzaga. The Zags proved they could win without Adam Morrison bailing them out, which the win over Indiana proved. Coach Mark Few knew the team was waiting for Morrison to put on his Superman cape and save the day again. Instead, he set up the offense to start with dump downs to muscular J.P. Batista, who used his variety of moves to score or kick out passes to wide open Derek Raivio. Morrison is battling the flu, and will face a group of strong defenders in the battling Bruins. UCLA had more trouble then expected with Alabama who out-muscled them for position in the blocks and crashed the offensive boards with abandon. Coach Ben Howland can expect more of the same, with the Bulldogs using Batista as the battering ram. UCLA should have a significant edge at guard were Jordan Farmar and Arron Afflalo are among the elite backcourt duos left in the tournament. Both teams are outstanding away from home, with Gonzaga 12-3 and 10-5 ATS and UCLA 14-3 with a 12-5 ATS mark. Check the score with 10 minutes left. If the total score is in the 90-10 range move UCLA to the Elite 8, if it is close to 120, Morrison and the Zags are positioned to upset the #2 seed.
Line UCLA -3, Total 138 (Lines from SportsInterAction.com)
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