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StatFox says:
Hello everybody and welcome back to another edition of the StatFox Scuffle. The calendar is about to flip to April and that typically means a few things: 1) April Fool's Day 2) Final Four Weekend and 3) Baseball's Season Opening. Well, we're here to talk about #2 & #3 with our own April Fools, Steve & Doug (Just kidding guys!). Our resident experts will chime in with their thoughts on the upcoming Final Four games, but the primary focus will be the pending baseball season. Specifically, they will discuss each of the divisions in baseball, analyzing whether or not there is any value on the division championship odds or the team season win odds over at BetCRIS currently. The last time StatFox did this was for the NBA, and that has proven to be one of the most valuable Scuffles yet. Hopefully, we'll produce similar results here. So without further delay, I welcome back StatFox Doug & StatFox Steve. Good day guys, spring is in the air! StatFox Doug says:
It is the time of year where hope springs eternal. Steve has had a pretty good run in the NCAA tournament and I've comeback to a meager yet still profitable position. I witnessed the crack of the bat down here in the desert. Steve, you may not know this but, baseball is actually my favorite sport. The simple beauty of the game is now lost on many people, but is still wonderful to follow. Baseball betting is a grind, but seldom does not yield profits for those that can keep plugging away. StatFox Steve says:
Why, hello Douglass. I don't know about you, but I'm not sure how to take being called fool & expert in the same opener?! Anyway, I can't go as far as you in calling baseball my favorite sport, but it is quite enjoyable, and can be a highly profitable betting experience if you put your mind to it. This year in Wisconsin there is a little more anticipation than usual with the Brewers' a popular pick as one of the league's potential surprises. StatFox says:
Gentlemen, why don't we get started with one of the divisions, let's say the ever-popular AL East, where it figures to be another gritty dual between New York and Boston. Go ahead with your thoughts Doug. StatFox Doug says:
Steve, I'm not going to need a dam to stop all your gushing about the Brewers am I? Anyway I think both the Red Sox and Yankees made improvements in the off-season. Overall I believe Boston did the most to improve itself. I like the deeper bench with players like J.T. Snow and believe the rotation will be more solid with Kurt Schilling pitching all year and Josh Beckett added. The Yankees lineup is a year older and the pitching, while better, I'm not sold on for the entire year. The Bronx Bombers to go Under 97.5 at BetCris.com interests me. One other note, I'm not sure about you, but I'm far from sold on Toronto. Probably the most talked about team in terms of improvement, with a house of cards scenario for everything to fall into place for the Blue Jays. StatFox Steve says:
Actually Doug, i was going to lead off with the thought of not being sold on Toronto. Their win total at BetCRIS is 87. That's incredibly presumptuous to me in this division, and after losing Burnett for some time to injury already, I like those UNDER odds a lot. As far as the Yankees and Red Sox are concerned, I will go to another interesting wager possible at CRIS. They are offering "Rivalry Odds". For NY-Bos, the line is set at NY -5.5 games over Boston. I just don't see New York being that much better than the BoSox. I like Boston's pitching much better as well so I'll take that +5.5, with maybe even a bit on them to win the AL East @ +210. StatFox Doug says:
I'll concur, what about where the AL Central where the current World Series Champs reside? StatFox Steve says:
In my opinion, Chicago has to be considered the favorite. Adding Jim Thome to that lineup is a real coup. They are -145 to win the Central and with Cleveland's collapse last year, I'm quite worried about the psyche of the only other team that can really challenge in the division. On the opposite side, I'm looking for an improvement from Detroit. The Tigers had some injury issues last year to what was supposed to be an extensively upgraded team. I think you'll see some better results from those changes in this season. I'll go Detroit over the 78 posted win total. How 'bout you in the ALC? StatFox Doug says:
I completely agree with your assessment of the South Siders. I believe the 91 wins for a total is accurate, given something is likely to occur. Do not like the Tribe at all. Lost three relievers that had a combined ERA last year of 2.24. Seeing that this was the strength of the team, were does that get made up? I'm going Under on the Indians. Minnesota at 83 wins? The AL worst offense did exactly what to improve? A line-up full of table setters but who drives them in? I'm playing against the Twinkies at 83 wins. Truthfully, no real opinion on Detroit. but I'm guessing anywhere from 74-81 wins. Unless Jack Morris can come back and pitch like he did in 1984. StatFox Steve says:
Jack Morris? Wow, I heard Sparky and Gibson are coming back too! Seriously though, the Tigers lost Percival, Ordonez, Carlos Guillen & Dmitri Young for extended periods. That's a lot to lose. As far as Minnesota is concerned, better days have past obviously! When are they going to get rid of that stupid dome anyway? Let's move on to the AL West. How do you see it unfolding in '06? StatFox Doug says:
Injuries will play a key role in determining the winner in this division. No question Oakland has the pitching. Five quality starters and enough middle relief to get to sensational closer Houston Street. The health of Frank Thomas as a DH and 140 games from SS Bobby Crosby is important. My sources tell me (sounds professional, yes?) Eric Chavez is close to 100% from last year's shoulder woes. The LAA of Anaheim, have an aging line-up that was only 7th in runs scored. Do not see any great improvements less aging stars like Garrett Anderson and Tim Salmon do something unexpected. The pitching is adequate for the long haul, yet can be overwelmed in important series. Once again my same sources say Vlad Guerrero is having knee issues and could end up on the DL this season. I'll take the A's at +105. Your thoughts and I'll give my Play On team in this division. StatFox Steve says:
I might beat you to the punch. I actually think this division could turn nearly upside down in 2006. I like Seattle and Texas to be improved, and I'm not thrilled with the offseasons of Oakland and the LA Angels of Anaheim-Orange County-Disneyland. In fact, I seriously have to question the previously aggressive Angels on their failure to protect what they had while going out and missing on some big fish. Either way, I love Texas now with Millwood and Eaton in the starting staff. They have the best lineup in the division and FINALLY a shot to get something out of the pitching staff. I'm going to take them at OVER 81.5 wins and a flyer on division champ at +550. As far as Seattle is concerned, the M's could be much improved as that lineup looks more and more formidable. OVER 76 a good value. StatFox Doug says:
Yes, once again your snotty know it all attitude got in the way, as you try to steal my thunder. I actually like the Mariners. I believe the pitching will be stabilized and the line-up is better overall. As far as the Rangers, I'm really not a Kevin Millwood fan. If this guy was so good why does he keep getting moved? Has good ERA and finishes .500. Yawn! StatFox Steve says:
If I could raise my right middle finger at you on the computer, I would! But being a respectful midwestern man, I will not do such. Instead, I will disregard your criticism and ask you to move on to the NL East. Can anyone unseat the Braves? StatFox Doug says:
Steve, buddy, just goofin' with you. What's a matter? Did you take the Suns against your Bucks, as they nailed 18 treys?! This ought stir some more emotions. Yes, I believe the Braves can be unseated, but not by the media darling Mets. To me the Mets are the Clippers. Sure the Clippers are finally having a good season, but is anyone taking them seriously. Of course not, and the Mets at 90 wins is a reach in my very humble opinion. The Phillies at +800, are my longshot in any division. Philly has line-up somewhat similar to the recent World Series champs in terms of age and relative productivity. They committed the 3rd fewest errors in the NL and had three guys with 100 RBI's. With Florida and Washington expected to lose at least 90 some games, I'll back the Phillies also at Over 82.5. StatFox Steve says:
Call me an April Fool again if you wish, but I have actually fallen for the hype this year with the Mets. They picked up some proven producers this year in Franco, LoDuca, Delgado, and Wagner. I think there is a reason they are favored at -145. However, with that said, I'm going to believe in them with my head, not my wallet at this point. As far as Philly is concerned, I don't doubt your optimism if they were in a different division. They aren't quite on Atlanta & New York's level. Heck, they even struggle with Florida!!! Speaking of which, what did Cabrera and Willis do to be sentenced to a season of baseball purgatory in South Florida? Couldn't they have gotten shipped out as well? StatFox Doug says:
As a Cub fan, anything that happens to that Marlins franchise I could care less. The Fish have won two titles in their relatively brief history and my team can't win a World Series in nearly a 100 years. As Yogi said "If the fans don't want to go to the park, you can't make them." In fairness to each player, they should trade them. StatFox Steve says:
Must we hear about your precious Cubs in nearly every Scuffle we ever do? Sure it fits here because we're talking baseball, but man it gets sickening. I raise my glass to one Steve Bartman! Just kidding, I actually used to root for the Cubbies...Speaking of which, what is the outlook for them this year and the rest of the NL Central? StatFox Doug says:
First those that took the North Siders and Under 84 have to be delighted about the news of Prior and Wood. It was no surprise this happened based on off-season and spring training reports. With baseball’s emerging parity, the front office is now a crucial component in determining the success or failure of a team. The Cubs front office continues to be nothing but greedy money mongers, who in truth hit the pillow nightly with only the thoughts of milking the "cash cow" one more way. Yes, I'm a Cub fan, however this organization is now light years behind the White Sox in terms of putting a top to bottom organization together that is DETERMINED to win. In this division any thing other then the Cardinals winning would be a monumental upset. Tell me about the Brew Crew and others. StatFox Steve says:
I have to admit, I liked the Cubs' chances this year until the Prior-Wood news of this week. Going on the DL officially now just signals another miserable campaign upcoming. Elsewhere, I don't share your same optimism on St. Louis. I think the losses of key past contributors (bullpen, starters, lineup) far outweigh anything gained since October. I look for the Cards to go UNDER the 93 wins posted. With that said, I don't understand the reasoning for Houston's low 82.5 total? Did they lose something that hasn't been reported? Mojo perhaps. The Clemens thing will probably end up working out, and Wilson for Bagwell in the lineup is an upgrade in my opinion. I like the 'Stros to win the NL Central at +700 and go well over 82.5 wins. I'm optimistic about Milwaukee, but years of frustration prevent me from betting the Brew Crew. Look out for Rickie Weeks though, he is going to be TOUGH. StatFox Doug says:
I disagree with you on the 'Stros. Houston caught the lightning in the bottle so to speak. The pitching was easily the best at the end of last season. With Clemons and Pettitte a year older does it improve? The Astros were 11th in runs scored, which means this will have to improve significantly to offset potential slide in pitching. I could go either way with the O/U pick, no way on winning division. I will agree with you, Cards could fall under their total, with my point being about winning the NL Central. I really think the Brewers could finish second in the division, which sounds like about 85 wins. Solid hitting team, with good pitching amongst the entire staff. On to the NL West, now Steve you have to tell the truth here. In picking the winner of this division did you cut up four pieces of paper, write the names of the teams on each one except Colorado and pick your winner out of a hat like I did? StatFox Steve says:
I actually did, and the one slice of paper that was unusually large, almost as if it was on steroids, was that of San Francisco. With Bonds in the lineup, I like the Giants' chances. Without him, I think you're looking at another 2005 in this division. On the improved side, I'm looking at the Dodgers too. Furcal will be a real nice pickup for them, and should inject some life into the league's 29th best hitting team. San Diego and Arizona will be playing catch up I believe, and the Rockies are a decent AAA team. Right now SF is listed at +170 to win the division and 83.5 wins. Good value on both in my humble opinion. StatFox Doug says:
I'm more inclined to follow your Dodgers thought process. L.A. made some nice additions, which in this sorry division could be enough. The Giants are supposedly the most talented of the five teams. With the Summer Olympics less then two years away, Giants CF Randy Winn should make at least the 4x100 relay team having to chase balls between old farts Barry Bonds and Moises Alou. If you remember I was a D-Backs basher a year long last season. It probably won't be this year, but starting in 2007, this team is being set-up just like Cleveland in the 90's and Minnesota in the late 90's, with tons of quality young talent that can play. StatFox Steve says:
Sounds good. I'll watch for them. Any thoughts on the Final Four besides, pugh! I'm not sure I like the way the line is climbing up on the Florida game, but I do think the Gators will win. In the other one I like UCLA over LSU as I refuse to believe it could be an all-SEC final. In the end, I like the fact that Florida has a better combination of offense, defense, size, quickness, and athleticism over anyone else. In fact, the Gators score 6 PPG more than any other final four team. Championship teams do it on both ends. I can't remember another NCAA title team that didn't. StatFox Doug says:
I too like Florida to beat the Patriots, for exactly the reasons you mentioned. The Gators have beetter athletes than Connecticut. We might be the last two left that believe UCLA can win. Everything I read, it's all about LSU this and LSU that. Based on what I'm reading, UCLA hasn't played a good team in months and are lucky to be here. When you ask these Bengal Tigers backers about the last second shot against Texas A&M to win, well "the Aggies were really good" is the response. Better than Gonzaga or Memphis for example? In the bracket I filled out for StatFox it still says UCLA, I'm not about to back off that selection. StatFox Steve says:
Yeah, congrats on that, though I'm still dumbfounded as to how it happened with UCLA. Man, at least Morrison and Gonzaga were entertaining to watch. I'd rather watch Bruin gold and powder blue paint dry than this current final four team. StatFox Doug says:
Steve in the not too distant future we should talk about how handicapping baseball is changing right before our very eyes. The last four champions share a number of values that are different from the past. The importance of moving runners, creating putouts on defense and other related topics. The Bruins may not be always pleasing to the eye, but they have placed cash in someone's pocket. Ciao StatFox Steve says:
Sounds good Doug...enjoy the weekend's festivities.
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