|
George Mason vs. Florida (-6.5) (Total 132.5, lines from betED.com) The gleam which currently lights up the Eastern seaboard comes from the ear to ear grin of George Mason coach Jim Larranaga. The Patriots improbable journey continues in the state that gave us the movie “Hoosiers” as they look to fulfill all of their dreams. From a historical perspective the man whose name is one on the university was an interesting character who evidently did things his way. George Mason was a neighbor of George Washington and he helped write the Bill of Rights. What set him apart was he refused to be one of the signers of the American Constitution because it didn’t outlaw slavery. This group of 11th seeded Patriots is going about things their own way as well. What has made George Mason an original is they have answered every challenge not named Hofstra since late January in compiling 14-2 closing record. The Patriots skill is enhanced with the team’s senior guard’s leadership of Tony Skinn and Lamar Butler. This duo has kept everything together for GMU. The consistency shows in the numbers George Mason produces. The offense averages 69.7 PPG overall, with only a slight drop away from home to 67.6 PPG. Most teams defensive mindset changes on the road, not these Patriots, who still hold the opposition to 40.2% shooting as compared to 38.7% in all games. This explains George Mason’s 14-6 and 13-6-1 ATS road records. George Mason may be the best story; however Florida is the favorite to not only win this match-up, but to be cutting down the nets on Monday night. Billy Donovan’s Gators were not taken seriously coming into the season and why should they have been. The three best players from last year’s team went into the NBA draft and what could any team expect in starting four sophomores. The Gators quickly bonded and rattled off 13 straight wins. The rigors of conference play took their toll with a 5-6 record and the naysayers were quick to say “I told you so” about Florida. As March arrived Billy Donovan’s team had seen enough and they were healthy and ready. The Gators closed out the regular season with confidence boosting wins, especially at Kentucky. The self-assurance was further enhanced by winning the SEC tourney and Florida has taken everyone’s best shot in the tournament, holding opponents to a ridiculously low 32.9% shooting.
For George Mason the stakes will be raised again when they face a team that is quick and bigger then they are. The Patriots have been able to take advantage of teams that had superior size, but lacked the quickness they possessed. As Florida proved against Villanova, they create mismatch problems for opponents who lack the third tall player to go against Corey Brewer, Joakim Noah and Al Horford.
George Mason is 8-1 ATS versus good defensive teams allowing less the 64 PPG this season. Florida will bring plenty to the dance with an 11-3 ATS record versus teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points a game this season. Florida being a 6.5-point favorite has been questioned; however the line is accurate when you consider the two conferences in top to bottom strength. StatFox Power Line – Florida -7
LSU (-2.5) vs. UCLA (Total 120.5, lines from betED.com)
The NCAA tournament is a fickle beast. One moment your being congratulated for winning and advancing to the next round and then quicker then you can say a Dick Enberg “Oh My!” you are out the door. The fact this is a Final Four contest naturally lends itself to a great deal of intrigue. Public perception being what it is leads to quite another story.
LSU had the visible talent on the floor early in the year, as the Tigers just did not know how to close out games and win. LSU lost to Houston, Northern Iowa, Cincinnati, Ohio State and Connecticut by a total of 11 points. Right after the 1-point loss at UConn the light bulb must have gone on, as the Bengal Tigers traveled to Arkansas and beat a solid Razorbacks club 63-58. This taught the young Tigers they could not only compete, but beat the top teams. The Baby Bengals lost only three more games the rest of the season including a pair to an SEC partner who is on the other side of the bracket. Coach John Brady unleashed a contingent of lightning quick athletes that were able to create turnovers and manufacture points in often rapid succession. The centerpiece became C Glen Davis, whose size and deftness with his hands and feet were astounding in being named the SEC Player of the Year. Coach Ben Howland has been able to transform the soft image of UCLA basketball faster then Charlize Theron did in the movie “Monster”. Howland brought in players that enjoyed the body contact of defense and were ready to shuffle the feet to move on defense. A requirement of anyone that was less than 6’10 was you also had to be able to shoot the three-point shot effectively. Sophomore sensations Jordan Farmar and Aaron Afflalo embody the type of player now on the UCLA campus. Tough minded defenders, that have the ability to drive to the hoop, dish the rock when necessary and stick the long ball when called upon. Both teams possess strong defensive characteristics, which are carried out in different methods. LSU uses its player’s length and considerable reach to disrupt passing lanes and convert steals into points. With Davis and ridiculously quick leaper Tyrus Thomas guarding the rim, it becomes difficult to find angles to take quality shots. The Bruins approach is attack you like Spiderman on the perimeter and in the 2nd half dial up the pressure even tighter to mentally and physically wear the opponent down. UCLA’s last 11 foes have scored less the 26 points a game in the closing twenty minutes of the contest. The Bruins have thrived on the road under Howland with a 10-2 ATS mark in road games off an upset win as an underdog. With the anticipation of another close game, UCLA has performed exceedingly well with an 11-3 ATS record when the line is +3 to -3.
Not to be outdone LSU is 18-9 ATS against teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points a game and 8-2 ATS after allowing 60 points or less this season.
This promises to be a low scoring defense affair with plenty of high wire moments for both teams as they look to advance to Monday’s title game.
StatFox Power Line – UCLA -1
|
