|
StatFox says:
Hello everybody, buckle up, its playoff time in the NBA & NHL. Sixteen teams in each league will be vying for their respective titles in each league. This is where the action really heats up. In this edition of the StatFox Scuffle, our resident experts Doug & Steve, are prepared to take their postseason handicapping to the next level as well. We will be discussing the first round of the NBA playoffs. They will reveal any strategies they like to use for the postseason, as well as any thoughts they might have on how each of the eight series' will go. So let's get to it. I happily welcome back StatFox Doug and StatFox Steve for another edition of the StatFox Scuffle. Good day guys, you ready to get after it? StatFox Doug says:
Well hello to everyone. Steve, will this be the year we get some upsets in the playoffs? In my opinion this league is really in need of something different to happen in the playoffs. People still talk about Denver upsetting top-seeded Seattle and how long ago was that? Their is potential for this to occur, what do you think? StatFox Steve says:
Well, hello Doug, hope all is well in Sunnyville! It's ironic that you should open up this Scuffle with a question like that because I was actually going to suggest that this year's NBA First Round has the potential to be the worst in the history of the league. Aside from the Clippers/Nuggets series, and perhaps to a lesser degree the Kobe vs. Suns foray, these are flat out mismatches. StatFox Doug says:
I agree, some disasters waiting to occur, and DRAGGED out over two weeks for seven games series. Anyways you asked me to be positive so I'll give my best shot. Speaking of mismatches what about Detroit and Milwaukee? StatFox Steve says:
The latest odds I see have Detroit at about a 39-1 favorite. That is absolutely crazy and at this point I am so thoroughly disgusted with the Bucks fading to the eighth seed that I'm not sure I can even offer up some impartial analysis. I just pray they win a game. Hey Doug...before we cruise into the various series', are there any general strategies you'd like to offer our readers for handicapping the postseason NBA action? StatFox Doug says:
I've used this method for years and actually forget the name, I've just called it the swing method or Frank Sinatra system. "Swing Baby Swing". I look for any team single digit favorite or dog that lost by double digits and at least 7 points more then the spread and Play On them the next game. After a blow-out win the natural inclination is for teams to let up if they won by a large margin and the loser to put up a better next time out. The swing in emotion and effort. Otherwise I like teams that have been swept on the road in the first two games to give a max effort in a home Game 3, especially when favored by 3 or less points. Steve how do you pick playoff winners? StatFox Steve says:
That's good stuff Doug, and I wholeheartedly agree with the theories. Do you have any numbers behind this at your disposal or no? If not, don't worry, I'll be doing some research myself on this. Anyway, that is a good game-by-game strategy. One of the things I like to do eliminates the chance for guessing game by game. It could essentially be called "riding" teams that I figure will advance far. Over the last three seasons, the eventual champion is 46-23 ATS. In no other sport do the playoffs so unmask pretenders. I therefore think that San Antonio and Detroit are on a collision course for the title. I plan on backing each of them regularly. In terms of other things I look at, playoff experience, seed history, and some team strength indicators like the Outplay Factor go in as well. I go into more detail on each of those in a playoff article we've posted on the StatFox site. Ok...whew...that was a lot. Let's get to that Detroit-Milwaukee series. Go ahead Doug... StatFox Doug says:
Also, very good and useful information. I have to agree with you that Milwaukee had every opportunity to be a 5-seed and found ways to lose games. No way the Pistons lose the series, however I would pay close attention to this, Detroit finished 13th in FG pct. defense this year. That is not the stuff typically champions are made of. The Bucks could be worth a look on the road particularly in Game 2. If the Pistons are still weak defensively, trouble could lie ahead. StatFox Steve says:
In truth, the Bucks did play pretty well vs. Detroit this season, and I can guess that the Pistons were hoping for someone else in the first round. You're right about Detroit's defensive struggles. Even before they shut down their starters for most of the last handful of games, they weren't exactly getting after it defensively. In fact, they went through a 7-game stretch where opponents shot just under 50% from the floor. If the Bucks can shoot the ball extremely well in a couple of games, they might take two. Otherwise, it's good night. In the end, I see Detroit moving on in 5. How about Miami-Chicago? StatFox Doug says:
This does not look like an upset, yet money might available on a game-by-game basis on Chicago. The Bulls were awesome in winning 9 of 10 to make the playoffs. Chicago played Miami tough in the two games you would presume full effort was given. The Bulls lack the upfront strength to over take the Heat, but I do like the fact the Bulls were 5th in the league in 3-point shooting and Miami allowed 37.8% beyond the arc at home. I'll go with the Heat in 6 games. StatFox Steve says:
I personally believe that no other team has awaited these playoffs more anxiously than the Heat. The regular season was just a waste of time for them, particularly in that crappy division they're in. I realize the Bulls are hot, but I'm actually not a fan of teams that expend all their energy just to get to the playoffs. They hustle, they shoot well, and they are confident, but this series will be all about star power. Wade & Shaq will take over. If you recall last season, Miami swept New Jersey in the first round. After they lose the first two in Miami, Chicago will be a completely different team than they are right now. I look for a five game series, but -800 might be too high. StatFox Doug says:
I disagree from this perspective. Any team that thinks they are just going to "turn it on" is already lost. If any teams understand this, it is the favorites Detroit and San Antonio. A key number is the points for and against for the season. The Spurs outscored the opposition by a league best 6.8 and the Pistons 6.6. Of the Top 3 seeds in each conference the Heat are 5th in this category at 3.9. I agree the Heat win, but like the Bulls with the best defensive FG percentage to nab a couple ATS wins. New Jersey vs. Indiana, your thoughts Steve. StatFox Steve says:
I will add this about Chicago too...they were a better team last year and choked in the playoffs to Washington, despite this same defensive FG% prowess. Teams like the Bulls with little offensive punch make for bad playoff bets. Balance is everything. Ok...onto New Jersey-Indiana. One train of thought...Indiana hardly deserves to be in the playoffs, much less a 6th seed. The Pacers were 8-11 SU & 5-13-1 ATS to close the year. The roster just isn't meshing and I said it in the beginning of the year. They miss Reggie Miller for so many reasons, on the court and off. As much as they are floundering, and New Jersey is rolling, I see no other choice than to project a 5-game ousting. Nets move on and the -350 series line is definitely worth a look. Believe me, this is NOT the Pacers team everyone is accustomed to seeing in the playoffs. StatFox Doug says:
This to me is a funny series. Not Larry the Cable Guy funny, more in an odd way. Indiana did win 6 of 7 against poor competition to secure 6th spot, though not covering as you noted. New Jersey has all the right pieces with their trio of stars. It is the match-ups that are different to me. New Jersey lacks frontcourt players to stop O'Neal and Stojakovic. The Pacers have Stephen Jackson to hold Vince Carter. This one might go the distance, with the Nets puling it out. StatFox Steve says:
I admire your willingness to give these underdogs a shot, but I simply can't get over the fact that the 5th through 8th seeds are so equally bad when compared to the top 4, which clearly set themselves apart. As far as the matchups in the Pacers-Nets series go, whoever Stojakovic guards will get enough points to make up for everyone! Let's move on to Cleveland-Washington... StatFox Doug says:
I like Cleveland to win a competitive series in six games. Cavs 31-10 at home, out-scoring the opposition by nearly 8 PPG. Washington has no scoring up front plays little defense. King James leads his team to a series win in his first try. Cavs in 6. The Totals should be interesting, since you would expect Overs, yet the Under is 6-5 L11. StatFox Steve says:
One interesting thing that has to be considered in this series is Cleveland's playoff inexperience. The franchise, and this current group in particular, is not familiar with playoff basketball. Washington definitely has the edge in that department. I also think the Wizards' ability to go to Arenas consistently and get to the line will aid them in postseason basketball. Still, when its all said and done, I look for it to be a coming out party for Lebron, as he gets his team through a tough game 7. No series bet for me here. StatFox Doug says:
Steve, come on. I'll give the Wizards have SOME playoff experience from last year, however you make it sound like they have this long history. I guess if you count Elvin Hayes and Wes Unseld as "Recent History". Cavs win! Time to look West young man. StatFox Steve says:
A series win just a year ago and NO measureable experience are very different, in my humble opinion. StatFox Doug says:
Does a 12-game better record count for anything in that humble opinion world of yours? I digress.... StatFox Steve says:
You're probably right. I just think the Wizards are the only one of the four lower East teams with a roster to even make a challenge here...Let's head out West. Spurs/Kings, fire away. StatFox Doug says:
Spurs win the series, but look for Sacramento to make some noise. I expect big numbers on San Antonio at home, giving the Kings a chance to win ATS and this is the stage Ron Artest is seeking. Bibby and Parker is always fun to watch. Spurs know what lies ahead with Dallas and may not be focused entirely in this series. Spurs in five, with most games decided in 4th quarter. StatFox Steve says:
I tend to agree with your theoretical assessment of the difficulty of this series. In fact, San Antonio faces a very difficult road to the title, and thus if it does win in it all, would be very deserving. Still, can I associate playoff experience is this case? Well, actually both teams have it, but the Spurs have more WINNING experience. The FoxSheets Game Simulator projects a surprising 10-point comfortable win in game one, signaling to me that the series could be easier than most "experts" are expecting. Five games sounds about right. StatFox Doug says:
The Phoenix/Lakers series reminds me of when Michael Jordan was first in the playoffs with the Bulls. He lit up Boston for like better then 40 PPG and Chicago lost. I see Kobe duplicating that feat and losing to the Suns in six games. Phoenix is 9-3 ATS against the Lakers in most games and should dispatch of them again. If Phoenix wins, it would be noteworthy because Phil Jackson has NEVER lost a 1st round playoff. StatFox Steve says:
Very interesting observations. In fact, I completely overlooked the whole Phil Jackson thing. With Kobe playing like he is, maybe LA does have a better shot than I first thought. Bryant has the ability to single-handedly take over this series. Still, like you said, it reminds me as well of the early Jordan Bulls. They might just be slightly overmatched here. Phoenix gets by in 6. I will take a hard look at Phoenix about -350 as well. StatFox Doug says:
The much speculated Clippers/Nuggets series is next, give me a Winner Steve! StatFox Steve says:
At first glance, the series price in this one really surprised me as you can probably pick up Denver at about a +150 line. Neither of these teams is setting the world on fire of late and there is just a 3 game difference between them. I think the line is there for a reason though. Denver has struggled with injuries again and hasn't been able to generate much rhythm. On the other side, Cassell's postseason history speaks for itself. Plus, the Clippers are a MUCH better team defensively. I expect a big series from Brand too. Clips advance to the 2nd round. (Did I really just utter those words???) StatFox Doug says:
You're right, that does sound odd. Denver has been in the playoffs in each of Carmelo Anthony's first three seasons, yet the Nuggets have not advanced since 1994. Personally, I think this a hard series, with the home court a huge issue. If either team wins on the road, they could win the series. A very lame vote for the Clippers, with a Nuggets win no surprise. Now, what a shame Dallas and Memphis have to play another. Both had fantastic years and have to meet this earlier. If Dallas wins the title and the expected teams move forward, that would have to be considered one of the best playoff runs ever even if they win each series 4-3. StatFox Steve says:
On the surface this series is more intriguing than it probably will end up being. I say that because the Grizzlies are essentially the same team that has been swept out of the first round in two straight seasons. They are 0-8 all time in the playoffs. I think there is just something about their style of play that is better suited for the East. As Bill Walton might say "Whose going to get the baskets at crunch time?". Both teams are solid on the defensive end, but Dallas is far too complete of a team to get beat here. 60+ win teams just don't lose in the first round. Dallas in 5 or 6. StatFox Doug says:
With the way the NBA set this series up, playing 3 games in seven days, I look for Dallas to keep Memphis still without a playoff win. The Mavs now have the ability to play at different tempos. Only way the Grizzlies win is a Game 4 match-up in attempting to avoid sweep. Mavs move to next round. StatFox Steve says:
That covers all of them huh? Any last thoughts before we sign off here? StatFox Doug says:
Steve we both agree this 1st round does not look chalk full of excitement. Let's at least hope it is like the NHL where compelling games usually abound. I believe readers should consider are advice and be choosy, because the lines will be razor sharp. StatFox Steve says:
I agree. This is the first year in awhile that my anticipation of the NBA playoffs is limited. Hopefully it picks up in the later rounds. One thing to consider is that since the beginning of the NBA database at StatFox (1996), not a single Western Conference team seeded 1,2, or 3 has lost in the first round. Therefore, the Nuggets/Clippers series could be significant. Makes me almost reconsider the Clippers here? Anyway, it’s been solid Doug…enjoy the action and we’ll catch up next week.
|
