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StatFox Doug’s Musings
By: Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 5/3/2006  at  11:33:00 AM
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Another NFL draft has come and gone, with EVERY mock draft board blown up on the very first pick. The draft has turned into the biggest non-sporting event on the sports calendar, with sports talk radio carrying coverage coast-to-coast and ESPN and the NFL Network providing enough coverage and analysis to last three lifetimes. Hopefully Mel Kiper takes this weekend off before starting in on next year’s draft.

The Venetian Hotel and Casino on the Las Vegas Strip was the first sportsbook to release Totals on the NFL. I thought I would take a look to determine what if any impact the draft may have on these figures. Of course, injuries will have create more havoc with these totals then any draft pick, but just like the draft itself, speculation is fun when the season is months away. Later this spring and summer, off-shore sportsbooks like WagerWeb.com will release their win Totals as well.

Many thought Buffalo had the worse draft, when in fact they addressed the needs of the team. There is no question those same needs could possibly have been met later with the very same players, yet you have to give credit to the Bills for following the plan they evidently established. In the 3rd and 4th round the Buffalo front office did a very solid job with CB Ashton Youboty and S Ko Simpson respectively. With Lawyer Milloy gone and Troy Vincent being beaten with regularity, the premise of what the Bills did made sense, if not the execution. The current Bills schedule does not lend itself to many easy contests and even though they addressed immediate needs, this does not translate well into victories. With Buffalo advertised with seven wins, this number could be a reach.

Arizona fell into their quarterback of the future due to questionable judgment by the teams who picked ahead of them. I absolutely love all these so-called experts saying Matt Leinart does not possess an arm to throw the deep ball accurately. Let me ask this question, do you honestly believe there are 32 starting NFL quarterbacks that throw the deep ball better the Leinart? With the speed of the game itself, is not the ability to get rid of the ball quickly to the receiver on time and in stride more important throwing the perfect 50-yard bomb each time? The Cardinals next pick was a bit of a reach with fellow USC guard Deuce Lutui chosen. Arizona’s more immediate need was at tackle; however Lutui started exclusively at tackle as junior, thus maybe the Cards think he would be a upgrade either way. Leonard Pope in the 3rd round is a great selection. Pope is nearly 6’8 with good hands and has the body type to add weight. Blocking skills need improvement to play in the NFL, but could be a real steal if he has the work ethic to match physical skills. The oddsmakers have assigned a total of 8 wins on the Cardinals, which seems about right. Given the excitement of a true professional stadium and an upbeat atmosphere for the first time in years in the desert, Arizona could surpass that number and win nine games. Key games would be a Monday Night game at home against Chicago and trips to Green Bay and San Diego to make this happen.

The Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers made a savvy selection in moving up to nab arguably the best receiver in the draft in Santonio Holmes. The Steelers may not have as many of fun options as they did with departed Randle El, yet Holmes played in a big time program at Ohio State and has obvious skills. Another excellent choice was Willie Reid from Florida State. Reid was the Seminoles 2nd leading receiver; however brings big play potential to the punt return game for the Steelers. If Pittsburgh is to exceed the 11.5 win total placed on them, these players will make contributions this upcoming season.

Denver did outstanding work in preparing for the draft. Mike Shanahan sent a clear message to his current signal caller Jake Plummer that his maddening ‘brain cramps’ will not be tolerated much longer. Plummer is only 31 years old when the season starts and will have to meet expectations for continued employment in the Mile High City. TE Tony Scheffler was one of the most impressive tight end prospects to workout at the combine, adds to the varied weapons Shanahan likes to have at his disposal. The Broncos were able add disgruntled Packer Javon Walker, trading draft picks for a potential Pro Bowl receiver. Elvis Dumervil was a pass rushing specialist in college, leading the nation with 20 sacks and 11 forced fumbles. If he can learn to rush from a 2-point stance, his value rises dramatically. The Broncos last pick may turn out to have the most lasting value. Minnesota’s Golden Gopher Greg Eslinger was the best center I witnessed last year. He offers great feet and quickness and will probably not be able to add much weight to his 6’3 1/2 292-pound body. This perfectly suits the Denver lineman blocking schemes which rely more on quickness then bulk. The Broncos are projected as double digit winners at 10 by the Venetian oddsmakers and should meet those expectation no problem.

I don’t know about you, but I’m becoming VERY TIRED of this fake good cop- bad cop act on ESPN. Leading up to and during the draft certain ‘Entertainers’ had to play the role of the angry person to disagree with everything to make “good television viewing”. Of course having to be held accountable for stupid statements is not part of the job.

Thanks for the time; these are my last few words…...

 

 


 

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