The summer has arrived and you are strapped for time. Your kids have you going in all kinds of directions, the family commitments are piling up and that yard work will not stop. Unlike the rest of year when you tend to be indoors, you are outdoors doing mostly fun things and have little time to sit at a computer and figure out how to wager on baseball. Still the daily grind of betting on baseball is addictive and you want to feed the beast in a manner that still shows you a profit. Here is a quick and easy way.

The old school way of handicapping was based primarily on starting pitchers and a few other factors. Back then a starting pitcher would pitch at least into the 6th inning unless he was getting shelled. Pitch counts were malarkey, a pitcher was given the ball every four days and he gave it his best effort each time out. Today bullpens are an important component and need to be included in this way of handicapping baseball.

The method is clean and simple to do this type of capping. First you must have starting pitchers on each team that have a minimum of five starts on the season. This gives a solid basis of information about the hurler on the year. You take each pitcher’s season ERA and add that number to his ERA over the last three starts.

An example would be Florida’s Dontrelle Willis and Baltimore’s Daniel Cabrera. Willis has struggled a good portion of the year and only recently has performed back to normal level. His current ERA is 4.39; however in his last 3 starts his ERA has dropped to 3.13. You add the two numbers together and divide by 2. Willis total is 7.51 and divided in half is 3.75 or 3 total runs allowed for the time he pitches. The Orioles Cabrera earned run average is 4.17; however he has been especially sharp of late with a 1.59 ERA in his last few opportunities. Cabrera’s numbers arrive at 5.71 and finish at 2.85 for a rounded total of 2 runs he should give up.

In looking at the bullpens another conclusion needs to be determined. If a bullpen has an ERA under 4, the assumption is they will not give a run in a particular game. Of course they will from time to time, yet just over one for every three innings they pitch. If a team has an ERA in the four range (4.00-4.99) you add one run to the total and in the five range, you add two runs. Kansas City has been up over 6 runs on different days after another bad outing, yet that is rare. In the case of this particular contest, the Marlins bullpen ERA is 4.31 and the O’s pen number reads 4.66. Adding the number together the final score would read: 

Baltimore 4
Florida 3

Of course many other factors go into handicapping games and anyone can find fault using this method. Since the first of June if you blindly bet each game you would be up +3.4 units for a tidy little profit considering the amount of work put in.

A couple of things you should know about doing this which may or may not suit your taste. This system is geared toward the favorite, because the line makers are looking at the same exact numbers in terms of interpretation. If you don’t like many favorites this system is not for you. Another option is to eliminate all -200 favorites because the risk is too great unless you fell this is a true winner you can not pass on. Lastly, a number of games will come up as ties using this method. (Just under 19 percent) The action is fairly split, with one caveat of note. If the game comes out to a tie and the home team is -130 or less, play the road underdog, which has won +4.6 units.

All games featuring a new pitcher or one that has less then five starts is disregarded. This quick an easy method can be winner when you just don’t have the time to study all the MLB numbers. The summer time only lasts so long, thus enjoy while you can and still show profits when wagering.