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17 Things You Should Know About NFL Title Games
By: Staff Writer  - StatFox
Published: 1/19/2007  at  8:27:00 AM
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Four cities' fans are dripping with anticipation, waiting for the work week to end so that they can get back to what has been the most important thing on their minds for the last five days. Can my team get to the Super Bowl? Sports bettors have been thinking about both these contests just as much, and with just three football games to go, (unless you are a big Pro Bowl bettor), have been using the information super highway to find every fact and figure that could give them an edge. Here are what we feel are useful bits of info we have collected to have you make top decisions for each game.

Starting with the higher seeds, over the last sixteen years we find NFC to be more money line friendly at 10-6, with the against the spread record dead even at 8-8. This will be the 12th time 1 vs. 2 seeds have met in the NFC since 1990, with the top seed 8-4 ATS.

The AFC title game has been split down the middle, as the higher seed as held no edge. Lower seeds have been the best bets during this time span posting 9-6-1 ATS mark. This will mark the first time that a number three seed has hosted an AFC championship game under this current format.

Overall road teams have provided the most bang for the buck with 10-5-1 ATS record.

The NFC games have shown an affliction towards playing Over with 9-7 showing, in the AFC the number is exactly the same with 5-2 Over mark the last seven years. When both teams in the championship game go Over in the semi-final round like the Saints and Bears, they are a perfect 5-0 to do the same exact thing again in this round.

The New Orleans and Chicago game has a number of factors that add intrigue to this confrontation. Neither team has been putting smiles on supporters late in the season. The Saints have failed to cover the last two outings and three of four. The Bears have been even worse; failing to cover each of the last four times they have played. If anyone is looking for a coaching edge that’s out the window, as these two generals are the two least combined experienced coaches since 1970, with only 64 regular games between them. Teams like Chicago off an overtime game are 4-7-1 ATS in the game before the Super Bowl. Anybody wondering if a dome team can play outside should put aside that nonsense with New Orleans 6-2 and 7-1 ATS as a road team overall this year. Finally NFC North teams are 4-7 ATS in NFC title match-ups.

In the AFC, one element will be decided. Indianapolis is attractive 9-0 and 6-3 ATS at the RCA Dome this entire season. For New England, “road warriors” is actually an understatement about how they have played with 8-1 SU and ATS record. Normally the entire burden falls on Peyton Manning to produce, yet he had thrown five interceptions in the playoffs. The Colts run defense has made the greatest turnaround in the history of the NFL since the merger. After being stampeded for 173 yards a game rushing during the regular season, the worst in the NFL, they have allowed 63.5 PG in the post season, an improvement of 109.5 yards. The previous best total was 80 yards improvement. It has proven to be wise in the Conference Finals to go against any underdog, who was in same role the game prior. This system is 20-10 against the number.

Time is ticking until we know who the Super Bowl teams will be. Keep this one in mind, if either New Orleans or New England wins (not both) the road winner is 5-2 and 6-1 against the spread in the Big Game.

 


 

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