Week 4 brought the first round of bye weeks on the 2007 NFL schedule. As I showed in last week’s NFL Handicapping Strategy feature article, some teams have developed distinct patterns for how they perform around the open date. If you put to the test any of the pre-bye week trends from that piece, the positive momentum for Tennessee and New Orleans neutralized one another last Monday, while Jacksonville stretched its winning and over streaks to three games in a row in the contest vs. Denver. In this week’s second half of the bye week study, I will look at the records and trends of the teams in their games coming out of the bye week.

For whatever the reason, NFL teams as a whole don’t seem to be capitalizing on the week of rest. With winning percentages of 51.0% straight up, and 50.4% against the spread, statistical evidence suggests that the bye week doesn’t provide any significant advantage overall in the follow-up game. Players may enjoy the vacation, and it may give them a chance to rest both physically and mentally, but on the scoreboard, it just hasn’t mattered.

With that said, there have been some specific teams that have proven to play either significantly better or worse coming out of the bye week. Denver and Seattle are the most obvious clubs. The records for each team in games post-bye week since ’92 are listed in the chart below, and here’s a closer look at each team along with their significant patterns to watch for this year.

Enjoy the analysis, and be sure to put some of these trends to good use in the weeks ahead.

ARIZONA

Straight Up: 8-7, 53% (#14 of 32)
ATS: 10-5, 67% (#3 of 32)
Over-Under: 5-10, 33% (#28 of 32)
The Cardinals have been a huge UNDER team coming out of the bye week, failing to surpass the posted total in 10 of the L12 games. Arizona itself has averaged just 13.4 PPG in that spot.

ATLANTA

Straight Up: 8-10, 44% (#23 of 32)
ATS: 8-10, 44% (#23 of 32)
Over-Under: 5-11, 31% (#29 of 32)
The Falcons have a few significant post-bye week trends that have formed in the L9 games 7-0-2 UNDER the total, and 3-6, but SU & ATS. They take on San Francisco on 11/4.

BALTIMORE

Straight Up: 7-5, 58% (#8 of 32)
ATS: 7-5, 58% (#8 of 32)
Over-Under: 5-7, 42% (#20 of 32)
HC Brian Billick has had his team fully prepared after the week of rest, as the Ravens have won five straight, both SU & ATS. This year Baltimore plays a key game at Pittsburgh on 11/5.

BUFFALO

Straight Up: 10-7, 59% (#5 of 32)
ATS: 10-6, 63% (#6 of 32)
Over-Under: 6-11, 35% (#25 of 32)
Since winning six straight post-bye week games from ’93-’98, the vacation momentum has slowed for Buffalo. In its nine games since, the record is just 3-6, with seven UNDER’s.

CAROLINA

Straight Up: 5-8, 38% (#27 of 32)
ATS: 6-6, 50% (#15 of 32)
Over-Under: 5-7, 42% (#20 of 32)
Having played six straight home games coming out of the open date, the Panthers are on a 3-1 SU & ATS run in L4 post-bye week games and the UNDER is also 3-1.

CHICAGO

Straight Up: 9-7, 56% (#9 of 32)
ATS: 9-7, 56% (#10 of 32)
Over-Under: 9-7, 56% (#10 of 32)
As bad as Chicago is going into the bye week (1-7 SU & ATS), it is nearly as bad coming out, with a mark of 1-4 SU & ATS. This year’s post-bye foe is Oakland on 11/11.

CINCINNATI

Straight Up: 4-12, 25% (#31 of 32)
ATS: 7-9, 44% (#24 of 32)
Over-Under: 9-7, 56% (#10 of 32)
Cincinnati’s opponent in the post-bye week game is on a 5-1 SU & ATS run and the OVER shares the same record in the L6. The Bengals are at Kansas City on 10/14 in the situation this year.

CLEVELAND

Straight Up: 6-7, 46% (#22 of 32)
ATS: 6-7, 46% (#21 of 32)
Over-Under: 7-5, 58% (#9 of 32)
Cleveland has gone OVER the total in three straight post-open date road games, and plays at St. Louis on 10/28.

DALLAS

Straight Up: 12-5, 71% (#4 of 32)
ATS: 11-6, 65% (#4 of 32)
Over-Under: 4-12, 25% (#30 of 32)
Dallas has won three straight post-bye week road games and plays at Philadelphia in a crucial game in the same scenario on 11/4.

DENVER

Straight Up: 14-3, 82% (#1 of 32)
ATS: 13-3, 81% (#1 of 32)
Over-Under: 11-6, 65% (#4 of 32)
The Broncos, who have proven stellar in home games prior to the bye week, are also 7-1 SU & ATS in their L8 post-bye week games overall. Look out Pittsburgh on October 21st.

DETROIT

Straight Up: 7-9, 44% (#24 of 32)
ATS: 7-8, 47% (#20 of 32)
Over-Under: 10-6, 63% (#6 of 32)
Detroit boasts three straight ATS wins and three straight UNDER’s in post-bye week games, all against NFC South teams. Ironically, this year’s opponent Tampa Bay on 10/21.

GREEN BAY

Straight Up: 10-7, 59% (#5 of 32)
ATS: 8-9, 47% (#18 of 32)
Over-Under: 9-8, 53% (#14 of 32)
No real significant recent ATS patterns have formed on post-bye week Green Bay games, but the Packers are 6-1 SU in their L7.

HOUSTON

Straight Up: 1-4, 20% (#32 of 32)
ATS: 2-2, 50% (#17 of 32)
Over-Under: 2-3, 40% (#24 of 32)
The Texans have gone UNDER the total in three straight post-vacation games and are 1-4 SU overall since rejoining the NFL in 2002.

INDIANAPOLIS

Straight Up: 10-8, 56% (#12 of 32)
ATS: 8-9, 47% (#18 of 32)
Over-Under: 10-8, 56% (#12 of 32)
One particular player who has embraced the bye week is Colts’ QB Peyton Manning, as his team has gone OVER the total in eight straight post-open date games, scoring 34.3 PPG on their own. This year’s date to circle 10/22, at Jacksonville.

JACKSONVILLE

Straight Up: 7-6, 54% (#13 of 32)
ATS: 6-7, 46% (#21 of 32)
Over-Under: 9-4, 69% (#2 of 32)
Both Jacksonville and the UNDER are 1-3 in the L4 post-bye week games for the franchise.

KANSAS CITY

Straight Up: 10-7, 59% (#5 of 32)
ATS: 10-7, 59% (#7 of 32)
Over-Under: 6-11, 35% (#25 of 32)
With a 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS record in the L6 games, the Chiefs have proven dangerous with the week of rest. This year’s prey The Packers on 11/4.

MIAMI

Straight Up: 9-7, 56% (#9 of 32)
ATS: 8-6, 57% (#9 of 32)
Over-Under: 7-9, 44% (#18 of 32)
The Dolphins, who haven’t played an originally scheduled post-bye week home game since ’99 vs. Buffalo, host the Bills again on 11/11.

MINNESOTA

Straight Up: 13-4, 76% (#3 of 32)
ATS: 9-8, 53% (#13 of 32)
Over-Under: 10-7, 59% (#7 of 32)
There are a couple of significant trends for post-bye week Vikings’ games. Minnesota is on a run of 4-1 SU & ATS in its L5, and the OVER has been the total result in eight of the L10.

NEW ENGLAND

Straight Up: 7-8, 47% (#20 of 32)
ATS: 6-9, 40% (#28 of 32)
Over-Under: 7-8, 47% (#16 of 32)
New England has proven a worthy foe out of the bye, going 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS in L4. The UNDER is also on a 6-1 run in L7 post-open date Patriot games.

NEW ORLEANS

Straight Up: 7-9, 44% (#24 of 32)
ATS: 8-8, 50% (#15 of 32)
Over-Under: 8-7, 53% (#13 of 32)
Carolina will be looking to push the Saints’ post-vacation losing streak to four games when the teams meet on Sunday.

NY GIANTS

Straight Up: 6-13, 32% (#28 of 32)
ATS: 7-11, 39% (#29 of 32)
Over-Under: 4-15, 21% (#31 of 32)
Including two losses to this week’s post-open date opponent, Dallas, the Giants are on a run of 1-5 SU & 1-4-1 ATS in the L6 games of that scenario.

NY JETS

Straight Up: 9-8, 53% (#15 of 32)
ATS: 11-6, 65% (#4 of 32)
Over-Under: 6-11, 35% (#25 of 32)
The Jets have won their L5 post-open date games ATS, and the UNDER is on an incredible run of 10-1 in the L11. This year’s game 11/18, hosting Pittsburgh.

OAKLAND

Straight Up: 8-9, 47% (#19 of 32)
ATS: 7-10, 41% (#25 of 32)
Over-Under: 7-10, 41% (#22 of 32)
The Raiders have lost four straight games coming off the bye week, both SU & ATS, including two to this year’s opponent on 10/14, San Diego.

PHILADELPHIA

Straight Up: 12-3, 80% (#2 of 32)
ATS: 11-4, 73% (#2 of 32)
Over-Under: 3-12, 20% (#32 of 32)
As bad as Philly was going into the bye week (1-6 SU & 1-5 ATS), it has been that good in the week after, with a record of 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in L7.

PITTSBURGH

Straight Up: 9-7, 56% (#9 of 32)
ATS: 6-10, 38% (#30 of 32)
Over-Under: 7-9, 44% (#18 of 32)
No real significant Pittsburgh post-bye week trends should affect the Denver game on 10/21.

SAN DIEGO

Straight Up: 7-8, 47% (#20 of 32)
ATS: 8-7, 53% (#12 of 32)
Over-Under: 7-8, 47% (#16 of 32)
San Diego owns a 5-2 ATS mark in its L7 post-open date games.

SAN FRANCISCO

Straight Up: 7-10, 41% (#26 of 32)
ATS: 7-10, 41% (#25 of 32)
Over-Under: 11-5, 69% (#3 of 32)
With average production of 54.5 PPG, points have been the name of the game in post-bye week San Francisco games. Eight in a row have gone OVER, so circle 10/21 on your calendar.

SEATTLE

Straight Up: 5-12, 29% (#29 of 32)
ATS: 4-13, 24% (#32 of 32)
Over-Under: 11-6, 65% (#4 of 32)
After a string of seven straight outright & ATS losses from ’99-’04, the Seahawks have won back-to-back post-bye week games. They’ve also gone OVER the total in six straight.

ST LOUIS

Straight Up: 9-8, 53% (#15 of 32)
ATS: 7-10, 41% (#25 of 32)
Over-Under: 9-8, 53% (#14 of 32)
The Rams have lost their last three games coming out of the bye week, both SU & ATS, and hope to snap the skid at New Orleans on 11/11.

TAMPA BAY

Straight Up: 5-13, 28% (#30 of 32)
ATS: 5-13, 28% (#31 of 32)
Over-Under: 10-7, 59% (#7 of 32)
Tampa Bay is just 3-7 ATS in its L10 post-bye week games.

TENNESSEE

Straight Up: 8-8, 50% (#18 of 32)
ATS: 9-7, 56% (#10 of 32)
Over-Under: 12-4, 75% (#1 of 32)
The Titans host Atlanta this week with six OVER’s in their L8 games coming out of the open date.

WASHINGTON

Straight Up: 9-8, 53% (#15 of 32)
ATS: 9-8, 53% (#13 of 32)
Over-Under: 7-10, 41% (#22 of 32)
The Redskins have won both of their last two post-bye week games at home by a field goal, and host Detroit on Sunday.