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The moment has arrived as the third big game of the season has arrived (New England at Dallas and Patriots at Colts were the other two) and this one is probably the most important as home field advantage is probably at stake in the NFC. While frustrated football fans scramble to make plans to watch this huge encounter on the NFL Network only, the NFL blames cable companies for not adding there network to cable packages. Trying to strong arm another entity to take your product has another name, instead let’s go with its interesting the pot is calling the kettle black. Mark Kriegel of FoxSports.com said it best “more American homes get Al Jazeera network than the NFL channel. Actually, the cable companies find the Al Jazeera execs easier to deal with.” We’ll start with the basics; Dallas is second in the NFL in total offense at 388.4 yards per game. They are 11th in rushing behind Marion Barber and Julius Jones at 122.6 YPG and 4.4 yards per carry. Tony Romo leads an explosive passing attack that is fifth in the league at 265.7 yards a game and has the second highest big play aspect with Terrell Owens and Patrick Crayton at 8.3 yards per pass. The Green Bay’s offense revolves around 38-year old Brett Favre who is playing like a veteran pitcher who no longer just throws the hard stuff, but has the right combination of pitches to be successful through experience. The Packers are third in the NFL in total offense at 380.4 YPG and fifth in points scored at 26.9. Mike McCarthy’s passing offense is second only to New England, being a couple of snow balls short of 300 YPG. The running game shows them last in the NFL at 81.8 YPG, however the Ryan Grant-led rushers have enjoyed four of six games of late over 100 yards. Green Bay is the more beat-up of the two teams, down a couple of defensive tackles, having given up 265 yards rushing the last two games after surrendering 331 yards in the previous five. That is not good news against a fine offensive line like Dallas with the hard running Barber. Cornerback Charles Woodson and defensive end Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila will be game-time decisions based on how they do in pregame warm-ups, further depleting what has been strength all season. Dallas has won the last eight times (including playoffs) the Green and Gold clad Packers have come to Big D and are 15-5 ATS in home games against NFC North division opponents. At last count, Green Bay was the youngest team in the NFL even with Favre adding to the total. By Favre’s own account these players are too talented and foolish to know any better and they think they are pretty good. Posting a 14-1 (11-2-1 ATS) record since week 13 of last season will do that to you. Sportsbook.com has the Packers as a touchdown road underdog, which the Pack welcomes since they are 5-0 SU and ATS this season and 10-3 SU and 11-2 against the number the last two years. Keys to the Game- One of the three things to watch for is what quarterback handles the pressure they will face. Tony Romo has often been compared to Brett Favre and part of the comparison is the never-say-die attitude that can be tremendous help and occasionally a detriment in throwing picks. Romo may be playing catch with Jessica Simpson, but he does a tremendous job keeping every pass play alive that breaks down. The Packers are expecting Nick Collins back at safety, which will help against the treacherous Cowboys passing game. Favre can expect to see a number of blitzes and must be patient. Everything he has accomplished this season has been based on this and increased accuracy. Offensive line play will be another consequential aspect. Tackles Chad Clifton and hobbled Mark Tauscher must provide protection for Favre and open up stretch plays, since Dallas is 11-3 ATS when they allow less than 75 rushing yards. Dallas has to pay close attention to Aaron Kampman who is playing like the best defensive end in football the last several weeks. Green Bay hasn’t blitzed much this season, but don’t be surprised if A.J. Hawk is turned loose quite a few more times then what the Dallas offense has seen. Both teams have weakness in the safety positions, thus rest assured deep post patterns off play-action and V-routes will be used by both teams. Green Bay is 6-0 as an underdog in 2007, while Dallas is 2-13 ATS after a win by 28 or more points like they had on Thanksgiving over the Jets. Speaking of Thursday, when both teams are playing on the day before Friday, and were favorites in last game, the favorite is 4-9-1 ATS. Also on this day, if both teams were favored in last game and the home team is now the favorite, the Under is 11-3. This will be a proud day for the NFL as 66 percent of the country doesn’t have the ability to watch two 10-1 teams in the comfort of there own homes and are instead driven to watering-holes. At least it will be a fun atmosphere starting at 8:15 Eastern. StatFox Forecaster – Green Bay covers
StatFox Power Line – Dallas by 7
StatFox OutPlay Factor –Dallas by 6
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