Last week, we gave you the best and worst teams in the country in terms of offensive points per possession (PPP), and showed that there was a direct correlation between that statistic and a team’s success (or lack of) against the spread.

We showed that at the top 10 teams in offensive PPP had a collective ATS record of 95-63-5, 60.1 percent at the time, while the bottom 10 teams were 53-94-5 ATS for an even better fade percentage of 63.9 percent. This week, we turn our attention to defensive PPP.

While there does appear to be some correlation between defensive PPP and ATS, it is not as strong as the offensive correlation is. The top 10 defensive PPP teams are 100-80-6, 55.6 percent ATS. While that is not nearly as strong as the 60.1 percent mark for the top 10 offensive teams, it is still very solid. Also, just like offensive PPP, the fade percentage among the bottom 10 defensive PPP teams is even better, as those clubs are 72-95-4 ATS for a solid fade percentage of 56.9 percent.

We will now give you the top 10 and bottom 10 defensive PPP teams in the land, and then wrap things up with the 10 most efficient teams in the country, combining offensive and defensive PPP.

TOP 10 DEFENSIVE PPP

1 – MEMPHIS (0.825): The Tigers have done an outstanding jog of shutting down the opposition this season, and the fact that they are allowing only 59.9 points per game becomes even more impressive when you consider that this team plays at a relatively fast pace, averaging 71.9 possessions per game. As a result, their 22-0 record becomes less surprising, and they are outscoring their opponents be a whopping 20.7 points per game. They are also coming on from an ATS standpoint, as they are now 12-8-1, 60.0 percent against the number.

2 – WISCONSIN (0.852): Any success by the Badgers this season has been keyed by this stifling defense. In fact, it is Wisconsin that has allowed the fewest points in the land, surrendering a measly 54.1 points per contest. The reason that they rank behind Memphis in efficiency, however, as that Wisconsin games have averaged far few possessions at 63.6. The Badgers are a disappointing 9-10 ATS however, but that has more to do with the fact that they have been double-digit favorites 10 times this season, and their style of play is not conducive to laying big spots like that.

3 – KANSAS (0.856): Kansas is one of just two teams to rank in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, in fact ranking in the top three in each category are they are number one in offensive PPP. As you will see later, this is the reason they are ranked number one in the country in overall efficiency, ahead of a Memphis team that is number one in the polls. The Jayhawks are allowing 60.2 points per game while winning by an average of +22.2 points, propelling them to a fine 11-7-2, 61.1 percent ATS mark.

4 – VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH (0.883): The 17-5 Rams are the first surprise on this list, but they are allowing just 58.7 points per game. A couple of words of caution are in order though. VCU plays a deliberate offense similar to Wisconsin, averaging 66.0 possessions per game, and they have done this vs. some soft competition, ranking 175th in the country in Strength of Schedule (SOS). They have done a fine job vs. the teams that they have played, winning by an average of +9.2 points while going 11-7-1, 61.1 percent ATS, and they do have a nice non-conference win over Maryland.

5 – NEBRASKA (0.889): The 12-7 Cornhuskers are an even bigger surprise, allowing 59.2 points per game, However, this teams plays at an even slower pace than VCU, averaging 65.2 possessions per contest, and their schedule ranks just 148th in SOS. They have also been a poor investment for the most part, going 4-8 ATS. Perhaps they are better suited to play in the Pac 10 than in the tough Big 12, as the Huskers own non-conference victories over Oregon and Arizona State.

6 – STANFORD (0.890): The Cardinal have surprised quite a few experts this season with their 18-3 record, and they have taken their cue from UCLA and Washington State, helping make the Pac 10 more defensively dominated. That said, Stanford plays at a slower pace than any other team in the defensive PPP top 10 except Wisconsin, averaging just 64.3 touches per game. Thus, the 57.6 points per game they are allowing is a bit deceptive. They do rank a respectable 86th in SOS however, and they are a good 11-9, 55.0 percent ATS.

7 – DUKE (0.892): Besides Kansas, Duke is the only other school ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive PPP, ranking seventh in both categories. Sure, the Blue Devils are allowing 66.5 points per game, but that figure looks a lot better when you consider that they rank 12th in the country in possessions per game at 74.3, resulting in this excellent defensive PPP. Because they rank so high in both categories, Duke is winning by an average of +19.3 points per game while going an amazing 13-5-2, 72.2 percent ATS, which is impressive considering they are probably the most public team in college basketball.

8 – LOUISVILLE (0.894): The Cardinals have turned their season around after a bad start, thanks to this great defensive unit. They are allowing an even 60.0 points over 66.9 possessions per game, and they are an impressive 7-3 straight up inside the tough Big East Conference with two of those losses being by one and two point respectively. They are a modest 11-10 ATS overall, although they are 6-4, 60.0 percent ATS since the beginning of conference play.

9 – BYU (0.897): The 18-5 Cougars are another surprise, but they do seem more deserving of being on this list than VCU and Nebraska. BYU plays at a much faster pace this season than in past years, averaging 71.6 possessions per game, and while their SOS is still weak ranking 119th, that still ranks significantly higher than the two aforementioned teams. They have even improved their play on the road, going 6-4 both SU and ATS away from home.

10 – KANSAS STATE (0.899): This is a scary team that is not a fluke, and we bet that none of the national powers will want to face the Wildcats come March. Kansas State is the only team to beat Kansas this season, and they are 15-5 while ranking a very strong 16th in SOS. They play at a fast pace, averaging 73.2 possessions, yet they have allowed fewer points per game inside the Big 12 than they did out of conference. The scariest part is that this is a freshman dominated team that is getting noticeably better as the season has gone on. They are also currently 9-6, 60.0 percent ATS.

BOTTOM 10 DEFENSIVE PPP

332 – MICHIGAN (1.102): This was expected to be a transition year for the Wolverines, but no one expected them to be quite this bad. Michigan is allowing 71.2 points per game while going 5-17 SU and a poor 6-14 ATS, and they are allowing all of those points despite averaging a rather low 64.6 possessions per encounter.

333 – NORTHWESTERN (1.102): It is strange to see two Big Ten teams in the bottom 10 defensively, especially a Northwestern team that has been notorious for a playing at a snail’s pace I recent years. Well, that pace has not changes as the Wildcats are still averaging just 63.0 possessions, yet they have still managed to allow 69.0 points per game. The Wildcats are 7-13 SU and 6-9 ATS, and they are the only Big Ten team to lose to Michigan this year.

334 – FURMAN (1.104): Furman is another team that tries to hide its defensive deficiencies by slowing down the game, averaging 65.2 possessions per contest. However, that has not prevented the Paladins from surrendering an unacceptable 72.2 points per game. Thus, their dismal 4-18 SU mark should come as no surprise. What is somewhat surprising is that their 8-10-2 ATS record is not worse than it is, but that is still a profitable 55.6 percent fade percentage.

335 – UC DAVIS (1.106): This is the first year that the Aggies have been in the Big West Conference, so they figured to struggle a bit with the move up in divisions. While the 69.8 points per game they are allowing does not seem disgustingly bad in the highest scoring conference in the country, that average looks a lot worse when you consider UC Davis is one of the few schools in the conference that prefers a slow-down style, averaging 63.8 possessions. The Aggies are 6-13 SU and 7-8 ATS.

336 – DETROIT (1.108): Detroit is the most plodding team in the bottom 10, averaging a measly 61.3 possessions per game. That said, the 67.2 points per contest they are allowing is like the upper 70s for a normal-paced team, so their low ranking is not that surprising. They are a poor 5-16 SU, and they have been a good fade going 7-10-1 ATS.

337 – JACKSONVILLE STATE (1.112): Now granted, the Gamecocks average 70.3 possessions, but the 78.6 points per game they are allowing is still high. Even worse, they are 4-19 SU despite facing just the 327th rated schedule out of 341 Division IA teams, and two of their four wins have come vs. Division II schools. They have managed to go 7-9 ATS.

338 – SACRAMENTO STATE (1.112): The Hornets are surrendering 77.5 points per game while going 3-16 vs. just the 208th rated SOS, with only two wins coming vs. Division IA schools. However, Sacramento State does hold the distinction of being the only bottom 10 defensive PPP team to own a winning ATS record, at 9-7.

339 – ARKANSAS STATE (1.118): Now the Indians are another team that allows more points then they should, given the pace they play. Arkansas State averages 65.2 possessions, which is below normal, so that makes the 72.2 points per game they allow look worse than usual. The Indians are 8-13 SU and 8-10 ATS.

340 – LA MONROE (1.119): Monroe is the second straight Sun Belt Conference team to make this list, which can’t make that conference happy. The Indians are allowing 73.7 points over 68.5 possessions per game, resulting in this 8-15 SU and 6-11 ATS records.

341 – THE CITADEL (1.180): This is a very big disparity between the bottom two teams in the country, as a difference of .061 points per possessions is huge. Thus, the Bulldogs’ 3-16 record is certainly no surprise, and they average losing margin of -15.1 points is the fourth worst in the country, ahead of only Loyola-Marymount, Oregon State and Rice.

Finally, here are the top 10 teams in the country in terms of efficiency, including their offensive and defensive PPP rankings:

1 – KANSAS (Off-1, Def-3)
2 – MEMPHIS (Off-27, Def-1)
3 – DUKE (Off-7, Def-7)
4 – UCLA (Off-4, Def-12)
5 – WISCONSIN (Off-55, Def-2)
6 – GEORGETOWN (Off-10, Def-13)
7 – KANSAS STATE (Off-56, Def-10)
8 – NORTH CAROLINA (Off-6, Def-36)
9 – XAVIER (Off-2, Def-38)
10 – TENNESSEE (Off-8, Def-75)