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Tennessee keeps creeping up on a #1 seed; Saturday's game at Memphis will be the most difficult test Tennessee has but road games to Vanderbilt and Florida could prove problematic also. If Purdue wins out, which includes games at Indiana and Ohio State, they could play their way into a #1 seed also. Duke or North Carolina could be the team that takes the drop to a number #2; they have light schedules (or at least as light as they get in the ACC) before their season-ending matchup. Indiana could be on a wild roller coaster from here out; with head coach Kelvin Sampson's fate hanging in the balance, how the team responds will determine whether they can remain a top-4 seed or not. Blowing Bubbles
Last year's championship game participants, Ohio State and Florida, currently reside in the bubble realm. Ohio State sits in better position but they have no great wins - their only non-conference wins of note are against Syracuse and Florida. The Gators boast zero good non-conference wins and only one good non-conference win against Vanderbilt at home. They have SEC division leaders Mississippi State and Tennessee coming to visit; they will need to sweep them and make it past the first round of the conference tournament to make it. Anything less and they will leave their fate in the committee's hands.Chasing the Top SeedsEast: 1. Duke, 2. UCLA, 3. Purdue, 4. Kansas St
South: 1. Memphis, 2. Tennessee, 3. Indiana, 4. Washington St
Midwest: 1. Kansas, 2. Wisconsin, 3. Texas, 4. Drake
West: 1. North Carolina, 2. Georgetown, 3. Stanford, 4. Xavier Conference Snapshots ACC
Locks: North Carolina, Duke
Likely in: Clemson, Maryland
Bubble:
It's hard to imagine any of the other teams in the ACC as a bubble team right now. Miami (FL) and Wake Forest might get to 20 wins but haven't beaten anyone of note yet.Atlantic 10
Locks: Xavier
Likely in: St. Joseph's
Bubble: Rhode Island
Barring a win over Xavier Sunday or a good run in the conference tournament, Dayton has lost too many bad conference games to make it.Big Ten
Locks: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana
Likely in:
Bubble: Ohio State
After getting ignored by this column's Top Four Seeds section, Purdue has continued their strong run, going 12-1 in conference play, sweeping Wisconsin and beating Michigan State.Big 12
Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Texas
Likely in: Texas A&M
Bubble: Baylor, Oklahoma
Baylor has squandered their great start, losing five of their last six games; however, two of the losses were to Texas and one was to Kansas so there is no shame there.Big East
Locks: Georgetown, Notre Dame, Pitt, Connecticut, Louisville
Likely in: Marquette
Bubble: West Virginia, Syracuse
Syracuse has struggled through much of the conference schedule, winning no more than three games in a row but also losing no more than two in a row. They play four of the top teams in their final five games so they have a chance to either play themselves in or out of the tournament.Conference USA
Locks: Memphis
Likely in: Houston
Bubble: UAB
UAB gave Memphis a scare by leading by seven with just under 90 seconds left but Memphis hit the go-ahead bucket with 6.5 seconds to go and then watched UAB score just after the buzzer sounded. UAB probably won't play them as close in Memphis at the end of the season.Missouri Valley
Locks: Drake
Likely in:
Bubble:
Drake is in - the only way the MVC lands a second bid at this point is if someone else wins the conference tournament.Mountain West
Locks: UNLV, BYU
Likely in:
Bubble: New Mexico
Even with 20 wins, New Mexico simply hasn't beaten anyone - with home games against BYU and UNLV coming up, it may take a sweep of those games for New Mexico to make it.Pac-10
Locks: UCLA, Stanford, Washington St
Likely in: Arizona
Bubble: Southern California, Oregon, Arizona State, Cal
After being praised here, Arizona goes out and loses two of three - they will need to win at least three out of their last six and go far in their conference tournament to make it.SEC
Locks: Tennessee
Likely in: Mississippi State, Vanderbilt
Bubble: Arkansas, Ole Miss, Florida
The defending champs are in trouble - Florida has lost four of their last five, including a bad home loss to LSU. With home games against Mississippi State and Tennessee still coming, they need to finish the season strong.West Coast
Locks: St. Mary's (CA)
Likely in: Gonzaga
Bubble:
St. Mary's is 18th in the nation in effective field goal defense (determined by giving three-point shooting 1.5 times the importance of 2-point shooting); that bodes well for them making an impact in the tournament.One-Bid Leagues America East: Maryland-Baltimore County is second in the nation in turnover percentage - that should win their their conference tournament but won't be enough to do anything in the main tournament... Atlantic Sun: With three home games to go against middle-of-the-pack foes, Belmont has the #1 conference seed in hand... Big Sky: Portland State owns a 2.5-game lead over Northern Arizona with only four to play and will be the likely #1 seed; if they finish strong, they will have the confidence to win the conference tourney... Big South: Although Winthrop currently holds the top spot, predicting the winner of this conference tournament will be difficult... Big West: This is a conference of haves and have-nots - all but one of the top four teams' losses have come against other top teams... Colonial: With three conference games to go and a two-game lead, VCU is about the lock the #1 seed... Horizon League: Butler has a two-game lead but hosts second-place Wright State - a loss there would make it close... Ivy League: In the only conference without a tournament to determine its representative, Cornell still holds a two-game lead on Brown... Metro Atlantic: With six teams two games within the top spot, it's unlikely having the #1 seed will matter - it's going to be who plays best at the time ... MAC: Kent State stands alone with double-digit conference wins - the likely #1 seed is the favorite to come out of the MAC… MEAC: Morgan State and Hampton are the class of the conference; it's unlikely the MEAC representative will not be one of those two... Northeast: With four games to go, Robert Morris, Wagner and Sacred Heart are all within a half-game of the conference lead... Ohio Valley: Conference leader Austin Peay leads the nation in percentage of possessions where they have not had the ball stolen... Patriot League: Three games separate the top from the bottom of this conference, leader American still has games against the next two teams in the standings... Southern: Davidson's question for a perfect conference season isn't over - they still have to face second-place Georgia Southern on the road and North contenders Appalachian State and UNC-Greensboro... Southland: Stephen F. Austin beat conference leader Lamar earlier in the season but Lamar's non-conference schedule (Ole Miss, BYU) could give them the advantage when the conference tournament comes around... Summit: IUPUI beat conference leader Oral Roberts and remains just as likely to win the conference tournament; however, the tournament will be played in Oral Roberts' home town of Tulsa, Oklahoma... Sun Belt: South Alabama has the highest RPI rating in the conference (#35) but still trails conference leader Western Kentucky by half-a-game... SWAC: Alabama State is locked in as the #1 seed and will likely win the conference tournament, securing a date in the play-in game... WAC: Boise State takes a break away from conference play with two out-of-conference games this week and will have to travel to Hawaii in two weeks - any trip to Hawaii is always a struggle.
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