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With 15 conference tournaments starting up this week, the picture will start to become a lot clearer. Already, the bubble picture is sharpening a bit: we had sixteen teams on the bubble last week compared to only ten this week. Some of that is due to teams playing themselves into likely at-large bids, such as Miami (FL) and Baylor, while others have likely played themselves out of the tournament picture, such as Wake Forest and Ohio State. The top-seeded picture is not clearing up, however, with Tennessee looking vulnerable while Duke and UCLA are knocking on the door. Right now, we only list 67 teams below vying for 65 spots. It's possible, even probable, there will be an upset somewhere along the way that will cast one of these teams out - next week, the picture will be a little clearer and we can start talking in terms of how far a bubble team must make it in their conference tournament to make the field. Blowing Bubbles
With a three-game losing streak and a 6-8 ACC record, Wake Forest has played themselves out of the tournament picture. Ohio State has similarly played themselves out of it with four straight losses and six out of the last eight. Florida, losers of five of their last eight, are precariously close to the same fate; with a home game against Tennessee and a road game at Kentucky, they likely need to win one of those to stay in the picture. In the Big 12, Texas A&M laid an egg at the worst possible time, losing 64-37 against fellow bubble team Oklahoma, who strengthened their tournament position. Chasing the Top Seeds East: #1 – North Carolina, #2 – UCLA, #3 – Wisconsin, #4 – Louisville
South: #1 – Memphis, #2 – Duke, #3 – Purdue, #4 – Marquette
Midwest: #1 – Kansas, #2 – Indiana, #3 – Xavier, #4 – Vanderbilt
West: #1 – Tennessee, #2 – Georgetown, #3 – Stanford, #4 - Texas Conference Snapshots ACC
Locks: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson
Likely in: Maryland, Miami (FL)
Bubble:
The ACC looks likely to get five teams in this year; Wake Forest has lost their last three and, with it, their hope of making the tournament. Atlantic 10
Locks: Xavier
Likely in:
Bubble: St. Joseph's
Xavier may be the conference's only representative - St. Joe's has three losses to teams outside the RPI Top 100. If they can beat Xavier at home on Thursday, that will be their ticket. Big Ten
Locks: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana
Likely in:
Bubble:
This is a fearsome foursome; Michigan State is always ready come tourney-time, Wisconsin and Purdue play stingy defense and, honestly, Indiana could go either way after losing coach Sampson. Big 12
Locks: Kansas, Texas, Kansas State
Likely in: Baylor
Bubble: Texas A&M, Oklahoma
Volumes could be written about the Big 12 right now and not a lot of it is good: Texas has a bead on a #1 seed and blows it at Texas Tech, Texas A&M refuses to show up at Oklahoma and Kansas State has lost four in a row. Big East
Locks: Georgetown, Notre Dame, Pitt, Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, West Virginia
Likely in:
Bubble:
The top seven Big East teams are in - you could be picky about West Virginia and contend that they haven't racked up a lot of good wins but they've done enough. Conference USA
Locks: Memphis
Likely in:
Bubble: Houston, UAB
All of the sudden, Houston has coughed away its hold on making the tournament and UAB's stronger showing against Memphis has placed it closer to making the field. Missouri Valley
Locks: Drake
Likely in:
Bubble: Illinois State
MVC fans have to be worried about Drake's troubles as of late - they've lost three of their last six and do not appear to be in top form right now. They do remain the favorites to win the conference tournament this week. Mountain West
Locks: UNLV, BYU
Likely in: New Mexico
Bubble:
The three Mountain West teams will bring solid defense; each of them rank in the top 40 of points allowed per possession. Pac-10
Locks: UCLA, Stanford, Washington St.
Likely in: Southern California, Arizona
Bubble: Oregon, Arizona State
Arizona is living dangerously - they scheduled a brutal non-conference schedule, going to both Memphis and Kansas, hoping it would buoy their hopes if they struggled in conference. They have struggled in conference and likely need to make a dent in the Pac-10 tournament to make the field. SEC
Locks: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Likely in: Vanderbilt
Bubble: Arkansas, Florida
This is one of the toughest leagues to get a grasp on. Tennessee secures the #1 ranking and then loses to Vanderbilt, who is then poised to start making a name for themselves nationally before falling to Arkansas. West Coast
Locks: Gonzaga
Likely in: St. Mary's (CA)
Bubble:
St. Mary's is starting to falter a bit; it now looks like Gonzaga will be the favorite entering the conference tournament. It's still likely both will make the tournament regardless of the conference tournament results. One-Bid Leagues America East: #1 seed Maryland-Baltimore County will bring its high-powered offense and ball security to the conference tournament, which starts this week but does not end until March 15... Atlantic Sun: Belmont's first-round opponent, Campbell, did beat the Bruins 83-75 back on January 5th; don't expect a repeat... Big Sky: With home-court advantage, Portland State looks to win the conference tournament handily; however, they only beat likely championship game opponent Weber State by three at home this year... Big South: North Carolina-Asheville's 63-50 road win against Winthrop was a likely championship preview and it doesn't bode well for Winthrop, current three-time tournament champions... Big West: Cal State-Northridge beat visit Cal State-Fullerton 82-74 but then gave away that advantage in the standings by losing to UC-Irvine... Colonial: Top-seeded VCU will bring its suffocating defense, ranked second in effective field goal percentage, into the conference tournament... Horizon League: With a strong performance in the conference tournament, Butler could place itself in the discussion for a Top-4 seed.... Ivy League: Cornell is the first team to have secured a berth in the NCAA tournament, winning their conference with still two games to go; now they are playing for conference perfection.... Metro Atlantic: Loyola Maryland and Fairfield are the hottest teams in this league, Loyola (MD) has won nine of eleven conference games and Fairfield has won seven in a row... MAC: Kent State is 7-3 against RPI Top 100 teams and is currently 35th in the RPI; even if they don't win the MAC tournament, they might get an at-large spot… MEAC: Morgan State has marched their way through the conference, with their 14 conferences wins coming by an average margin of more than 13 points... Northeast: Robert Morris forces a lot of turnovers, which should propel them through the conference tournament and will cause their NCAA tournament opponents fits... Ohio Valley: Because of the quirks of the records, the eight teams in the OVC tournament all have conference records of .500 or better... Patriot League: #1 seed American ranks fourth in the nation in three-point percentage at 41.1%... Southern: Davidson wrapped up their perfect conference season; with an RPI ranking of 44, they should make the tournament regardless of the conference tournament outcome... Southland: One of only two of conference leader Lamar's conference losses came against second-place Stephen F. Austin, setting up what could be a great conference final if they both make it that far... Summit: Top-seeded Oral Roberts is stumbling a bit to end the season; they have lost to second-seeded IUPUI and fourth-seeded North Dakota State over their last five conference games... Sun Belt: Sun Belt fans may be hoping for South Alabama to lose somewhere in the conference tournament as the #28 RPI-rated Jaguars will make the tournament as an at-large if they don't win the tournament... SWAC: At 341st (out of 341 teams), Alabama State has played the weakest schedule in the nation - it's unlikely they or the winner of the conference tournament will even make it out of the play-in game... WAC: Although it is unlikely to have the #1 seed, New Mexico State is the host of this year's conference tournament and could be the favorite to win it.
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