The 2008 NCAA Basketball Tournament is now just around the corner, and they do not call it March Madness for nothing, as many have come to expect the unexpected.

In fact, it may be considered an upset if there are no early round upsets, so the question becomes which of the small conferences have the ability to shock the world and which of the major conferences are the most vulnerable. In an attempt to make some sense of the madness, we have analyzed all post-season games since the 2000-01 season and broken the results down by conference.

Now bear in mind that by post-season, we mean both the NCAA and NIT Tournaments combined, so this data can be used for either tournament. We have broken the last seven years down by records against the spread and by totals for each conference. Additionally, we have supplied the average margin of victory (AMOV) for each conference, which can be valuable when compared to this year’s point spreads, as well as the average combined total points per game, which can be used as an aid for selecting totals.

Here are the full results for every current conference, followed by some notable commentary for selected conferences.

Post-Season ATS and Total Records by Conference - Since 2000-01 (Pushes Omitted)

ACC – For a conference that has generally been regarded as the best in the country for many years, that 45.1 percent ATS mark sure leaves a lot to be desired. Furthermore, ACC underdogs are just 15-21-1, 41.7 percent ATS. As if that is not bad enough, the conference is more top-heavy than ever this season, as there is a drastic dropdown from North Carolina and Duke down to Clemson, and there is virtually nothing after that.

AMERICA EAST – It looks like the 7-2 UNDER mark for this conference is not a fluke, given that their tournament games average 128.1 points. However, Maryland-Baltimore County appears to be the favorite to earn a berth this season, and they have played an up-tempo pace with their games averaging 144.8 points. Still, they probably won’t score as much vs. better competition, so we’d consider the UNDER if the total is higher than 135 or so.

BIG 12 – It is interesting that the UNDER has hit at 54.5 percent while the average combined score has been a respectable 140.5 points. Both Kansas and Texas have played good defense this season, so look to play UNDER in games involving Big 12 schools that have posted totals in the 140s (or higher).

BIG SOUTH – This conference’s 6-3 ATS mark is obviously the result of getting enormous lines, based on the negative -11.0 AMOV. Then again, there is nothing wrong with that as long as we are cashing tickets. The two best teams in the conference this season appear to be Winthrop and UNC Ashville, and each of those teams is capable of continuing the ATS success in the first round, as Winthrop has beaten Miami Florida and Georgia Tech this year while Ashville is 23-8 with an enormous 7’ 7’’ center that could be a load for any team.

BIG TEN – The Big Ten may be getting a bad rap as it is usually considered to be an overrated conference, yet the 53.7 percent ATS rate has actually turned a slight profit the last seven years. The league has a similar MO every year, that being it usually has one team that goes very deep in the tournament while the rest of the conference gets knocked out fairly early. We think that Wisconsin is the team to back this season, although Purdue could surprise a lot of folks.

BIG WEST – That 9-2 OVER record should not come as a surprise when you consider that tournament games involving the Big West have averaged 155.6 points. However, there appears to be some more emphasis on defense this season, as the UNDER is 49-23 in all regular season games involving the conference with an average combined total of just 137.8 points. Cal State Fullerton is the only legitimate contender for a tournament berth that plays the “old” style, as their games are averaging 156.7 points. If the Titans are the team that gets in, we would follow the OVER trend as long as the total is within reason. If some other team gets the nod, we’d most likely pass.

CONFERENCE USA – The major knock against Memphis this season is that they play in a weak conference, but given that Conference USA has a sparkling 64.3 percent ATS mark the last seven tournaments, the Tigers should be just fine. Also take note of the fine 55.6 percent OVER mark for the conference, and we would follow that pattern as long as the total is less than 145 or do, which would not be a given for Memphis games.

HORIZON – Here again, the major knock against Butler has been a weak schedule, especially since the Bulldogs have beaten just one RPI Top 50 team all year. However, the 63.3 percent success rate of the Horizon League shows that the conference can compete with anyone, and the Bulldogs should be nice investments as long as they are not laying double digits.

IVY LEAGUE – It used to be that none of the major schools wanted the play either Princeton or Penn in the first round, but the Ivy has been on the decline from an ATS perspective the last seven years at 3-8, and this year’s representative Cornell is new to this post-season experience. A first round blowout loss seems fairly likely.

MAC – What is noteworthy about the MAC is the 59.3 percent UNDER mark, and this year’s likely representative Kent State fits that mold, as Golden Flashes games are averaging just 132.4 points on the season.

MEAC – The Mid Eastern Athletic Conference has nothing to be ashamed of, as this conference has always been matched with a powerhouse in the opening round. Thus, the 8-4 ATS record makes sense given the respectable -10.7 AMOV, and who could forget the memorable upset by Hampton over second-seeded Iowa State in 1991. This conference will probably be worth a shot as an underdog of almost 20 points.

MOUNTAIN WEST – For people that criticized the pollsters this season for never ranking BYU over the course of the year, take a look at the lousy 38.6 percent ATS record the MWC has logged this decade. We would look to fade BYU this season, especially if they turn up as slight favorites. Also take note of the 63.6 percent OVER record for the conference, although their games only averaged 138.8 points. We would consider the OVER in games involving the Mountain West teams that have a smallish total.

PAC 10 – We would like to point out the drastic change in philosophy for this conference, as the top three teams this season (UCLA, Stanford, Washington State) are all defensively oriented. Thus, we would not put much stock in the 56.0 percent OVER record unless a total comes up extraordinarily small.

SOUTHERN – This has been the most UNDER-friendly conference in the nation over the last seven post-seasons at 83.3 percent. Now this year’s likely representative Davidson can score in bunches, but the Wildcats have also defended well allowing only 64.2 points per game with the UNDER going 15-11. The UNDER could be a good bet assuming they get in, as the total may be inflated a bit due to their offensive reputation.

SOUTHLAND – This conference has not competed well at 3-7 ATS, which means that either Stephen F. Austin, Sam Houston or Lamar will have their work cut out for them. The -15.4 AMOV shows that the conference simply can’t handle the jump up in class, and if it is Stephen Austin that gets in, that could set up a nice bet against the conference as the Lumberjacks may get some respect with their record currently at 23-4.

SOUTHWESTERN – The Southwestern Athletic Conference did not win a game straight up the last seven years, usually due to porous defense as the conference is surrendering 86.0 points per game in tournament play. That would explain both the 2-4 ATS record and the 5-1 OVER mark. The conference AMOV of -22.7 points suggests that the representative would be a nice first-round fade at just about any price, and the OVER would certainly be worth a look, especially if it is less than 150.

SUMMIT – This conference may have a new name, but the current teams in the conference are 0-6 SU, with only Southern Utah being able to cover the number in a 68-65 loss to Boston College in 2001. The leading candidates to get in this year are Indiana Purdue and Oral Roberts, and those schools are a collective 0-4 ATS in tournament play the last seven years.

WAC – The WAC is just 40 percent ATS, mainly due to the fact that few of their teams play well on the road, and their usually low seeding means that the neutral court tournament games are usually closer to their opponent. This year is no exception as Boise State, Utah State, New Mexico State and Nevada have all performed noticeably better at home than on the road. The translation should be another early exit.

WEST COAST CONFERENCE – Gonzaga put this conference on the map, but the Zags have become a very public team in recent years, and as a result they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven tournament games. They should have some company from the conference this year though in St. Mary’s, but the Gaels failed in their only post-season appearance this decade, falling to Southern Illinois in 2005. Now we do think that both Gonzaga and St. Mary’s are talented and capable of knocking off some heavyweights this season, so we will reserve judgment as to whether or not to continue to fade this conference until we see the matchups.