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With a number of late-season losses, the picture surrounding the third and fourth seeds became real hazy. It's now a case of how well these teams do in their conference tournaments that will determine if they maintain the high seeds. One team likely to jump up, if one of these teams falter, is Drake, the Missouri Valley champion, who finishes the season with a 28-4 record and an 8-3 record against the RPI Top 100. Vanderbilt is likely on the shakiest perch; they finished the season losing two out of their last three with their regular-season finale loss to Alabama standing out as the biggest scar. Blowing Bubbles
With our current projections, there are four bubble slots open and nine bubble teams. Arkansas is the only bubble team with a winning record against RPI Top 100 teams; this probably clinches a berth for them. Houston and UAB have proven nothing and likely sit on the bottom of the bubble. With Arkansas in, that may leave Kentucky out as it is hard to imagine the committee putting in six SEC teams after a down year for that league. Chasing the Top Seeds East: #1 North Carolina, #2 UCLA, #3 Indiana, #4 Louisville
South: #1 Memphis, #2 Duke, #3 Purdue, #4 Marquette
Midwest: #1 Kansas, #2 Wisconsin, #3 Stanford, #4 Vanderbilt
West: #1 Tennessee, #2 Georgetown, #3 Texas, #4 Xavier Conference Snapshots ACC
Locks: North Carolina, Duke, Clemson
Likely in: Miami (FL)
Bubble: Maryland
Hard to imagine the ACC only getting four teams but Maryland's only win of significance was back in January taking out North Carolina. Overall, they are 7-10 against RPI Top 100. Atlantic 10
Locks: Xavier
Likely in: St. Joseph's
Bubble:
St. Joe's did what this column said they must do to re-enter the picture - beat Xavier. Now they need to not crumble in the A-10 tournament and they're in. Big 10
Locks: Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana
Likely in:
Bubble: Ohio State
Wisconsin has won seven in a row on their way to the Big Ten regular-season title and should be the favorite entering the conference tournament. Big 12
Locks: Kansas, Texas, Kansas State
Likely in: Baylor, Oklahoma
Bubble: Texas A&M
Baylor has been on our little-train-that-could all season. Having reached 21 wins with a season-finale win over Texas Tech, all they have to do is not lose in the first round of the conference tournament and they should be in. Big East
Locks: Georgetown, Notre Dame, Pitt, Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, West Virginia
Likely in:
Bubble: Syracuse
Have the Orange done enough to warrant a bid? They've beaten Georgetown and Marquette - an extended stay in the Big East tournament may get them in. Conference USA
Locks: Memphis
Likely in:
Bubble: Houston, UAB
In the end, no one was able to stand up and mount a challenge to Memphis - neither UAB nor Houston have beaten anyone of significance. Both have losing records against the RPI Top 100. Missouri Valley
Locks: Drake
Likely in:
Bubble: Illinois State
Illinois State may have done enough by making the finals of the conference tournament to earn a berth. Mountain West
Locks: UNLV, BYU, New Mexico
Likely in:
Bubble:
BYU does carry an early-season win over Louisville into the tournament to show that they can match up with the more prestigious conferences. Pac 10
Locks: UCLA, Stanford, Washington St.
Likely in: Southern California, Arizona
Bubble: Oregon, Arizona State
Oregon's win over Arizona could have either hurt the Pac-10 or helped it. It may be enough to keep Arizona out or it could be enough to propel Oregon in. SEC
Locks: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State
Likely in: Vanderbilt
Bubble: Arkansas, Kentucky
After a 7-9 start, including home losses to Gardner-Webb and San Diego, Kentucky has finished the season with 11 wins out of their last 13 games and likely have secured a berth in the tournament. West Coast
Locks: Gonzaga
Likely in: St. Mary's (CA)
Bubble:
St. Mary's has a 7-4 record against RPI Top 100 teams while Gonzaga holds a 5-6 record but the Gaels were unable to hold it together enough through conference play to win the regular-season title. One-Bid Leagues America East: #1 seed Maryland-Baltimore County will bring its high-powered offense and ball security to the conference tournament, which starts this week but does not end until March 15... Atlantic Sun: Belmont secured the automatic bid with little resistance; only fourth-seeded East Tennessee State put up a fight.... Big Sky: Second-seeded Northern Arizona has been to the conference finals the last two years; will that be enough to outweigh Portland State's home-court advantage?... Big South: Winthrop defended its conference run with a 66-48 win over top-seeded NC-Asheville and has now won four straight conference tournaments... Big West: The conference tournament is being played in Cal State-Fullerton's backyard; the Titans finished tied with the best record in the conference but will be seeded third... Colonial: Virginia Commonwealth lost to fifth-seeded William & Mary in the semifinals of the conference tournament; their 45th ranking in the RPI and 4-3 record against RPI top 100 teams may be enough for an at-large bid... Horizon League: Butler's 28-3 record will give the committee thoughts of a top four seed for the Bulldogs but they have beaten zero tournament teams... Ivy League: Cornell wrapped up the regular season with a 71-64 road win against Princeton, securing a perfect conference record... Metro Atlantic: Sixth-seeded Marist beat third-seeded Niagara in the quarterfinals which should not have been a shock; they were only one game back in the conference standings... MAC: Kent State creates a lot of turnovers but they also turn it over a lot; that kind of inconsistency with turnover ratios will likely doom them early
MEAC: Morgan State plays a slow-down game; that might keep their time in the tournament close but shouldn't trouble top teams... Northeast: Mount St. Mary's upset top-seeded Robert Morris to reach the finals of the conference tournament... Ohio Valley: Austin Peay fought their way through a tough conference tournament to claim the automatic bid... Patriot League: Top-seeded American faces third-seeded Colgate for the conference title; American beat Colgate by eight points in both games between the teams this season... Southern: Davidson had a clear path to the conference title after the second and third seeds were knocked off in the semi-finals... Southland: Stephen F. Austin rates near the top of the nation in effective field goal percentage defense and near the bottom in number of possessions per game; a team that falls behind against them could be in trouble... Summit: Top-seeded Oral Roberts ranks 15th in effective field goal percentage defense which could present problems for teams that rely on their outside shot... Sun Belt: Western Kentucky is getting a lot of buzz as a possible at-large team; it's tough to buy the logic as they are 1-5 against RPI Top 100 teams... SWAC: While we're talking about RPI wins, top-seeded Alabama State is 0-5 against RPI Top 200 teams; all except one of their wins come against teams ranked lower than 300 in the RPI... WAC: After a four-way tie at the top of the standings, Utah State is the top seed.
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