A few weeks ago, we discussed how point-spread variance (PSV) is a good indicator to isolate which NBA teams are underrated and which are overrated.

This week, we shift our attention to NBA totals by looking at the total variance (TV) for Each team. Again, TV is defined as the variance between the actual combined point total in a game and the posted total in that contest. For example, if a game has a posted total of 200 and the actual final score totals 209, the TV for that game is +9.0. Similarly, if a game has a posted total of 192½ and lands on 186, the TV is -6.5. It can be said that teams that have a positive average TV are playing to light totals, and the OVER deserves a look for those teams until the oddsmakers adjust. Conversely, teams with a negative average TV are playing to inflated totals, meaning the UNDER always merits a look.

As usual, the bookmakers are doing an outstanding job of setting NBA totals this season, as the overall TV for the entire league through games of Thursday, March 6 has been just +0.38 points! Still, there are always some teams that they take a little longer to get a proper read on, and we have actually found 12 teams that have a positive TV greater than 1.00 and seven teams that have a negative TV less than -1.00. So until further notice, the strategy should be to focus on the OVER for the first group and the UNDER for the second group.

TOP OVER VARIANCE TEAMS

1 – ORLANDO (+3.83): The Magic are one of two teams in the league whose totals have been understated by more than 3.00 points per game. Orlando games have averaged a combined 204.7 points this season, making the OVER worth a look when the posted total is 200 or less as it is 19-12, 61.3 percent in this circumstance. It has not mattered much of the Magic have been home or away in games with totals of 200 or less either, as the OVER is 9-6 at home and 10-6 on the road in these contests.

2 – SACRAMENTO (+3.40): The Kings are the other team with a TV greater than 3.00, and the average Sacramento game has averaged 205.2 points. The OVER has been a great bet in Kings home games regardless of the total, going 17-11-1, 60.7 percent compared to a 16-15-1 edge for the UNDER on the road. That road figure can be improved on however if you only looked at games with a posted total of 199 or less, as the OVER is 8-6, 57.1 percent in those games.

3 – INDIANA (+2.95): Pacers games are averaging a whopping 208.5 points overall this season, with the OVER going a very profitable 17-12-1, 58.6 percent at home and a slightly profitable 16-14-2 on the road. Oddly, the best situation has been to play the OVER in home games that have had a posted total of 201 or greater, as the OVER is 13-8, 61.9 percent in this circumstance. Also note that the Pacers have had a stronger tendency to go OVER vs. Western Conference teams, as the OVER is 15-9-2, 62.5 percent in all such games including 8-3-1 at home.

4 – CLEVELAND (+2.75): The oddity here is that the OVER is just 31-30-1 in all Cleveland games this season, with their games averaging 195.3 points. That combined average does jump to 197.8 points at home however, and the best situation for the OVER has been home games with a posted total of less than 200, as it is 13-10, 56.5 percent in that circumstance. Another oddity has been the success of the OVER in road games with a posted total of 192.5 or greater, where it is 8-4.

5 – GOLDEN ST. (+2.44): It is no secret that the Warriors are the highest scoring team in the league, so their TV is relatively low because their posted totals are already high to begin with. Still, Golden State games are averaging a combined 218.5 points, and the oddsmakers have still not caught up at home where the OVER is 19-11-1, 63.3 percent. On the road, the play has been to play the OVER in games with a posted total of 210 or more, as these are 12-7, 63.2 percent.

6 – CHARLOTTE (+2.36): The Bobcats have been a hidden gem for OVER players all season, mainly due to a porous defense that is surrendering 101.1 points per game. The OVER is 35-25-1m 58.4 percent in all Charlotte games, and the OVER has been profitable both at home (19-14-1) and on the road (16-11). The best situation for the OVER has been games with a posted total of 199 or less, at 27-18, 60.0 percent.

7 – TORONTO (+1.89): Raptors games have averaged 196.1 points this season, and the OVER has performed much better on the road, going 18-12, 60.0 percent. That is not to say that favorable situations for the OVER do not exist at home however. The best case has been home games with a posted total of 190 or more, where the OVER is 11-7, 61.1 percent. Also, the Raptors have tended to go OVER more frequently inside the Eastern Conference, as the OVER is 23-15, 60.5 percent in Toronto conference games, including 9-4, 69.2 percent inside their division.

8 – MIAMI (+1.46): The Heat are the worst team in the NBA, but their terrible defense that is allowing 101.1 points per game has oftentimes made the OVER a viable play. Now the OVER is an ordinary 31-27-1 in all Miami games overall, but that record improves to 17-11, 60.7 percent in Heat games with a posted total of less than 192. Also, the OVER is 10-5 in all Miami road non-conference games, with those contests averaging 203.9 points.

9 – CHICAGO (+1.40): This one is a tad surprising, as Bulls games are only averaging 194.5 points, which should give you an idea of just how low most Chicago totals are set. The key with the Bulls has been to play the OVER only in games with posted totals of 188 or less, where it is 11-8, 57.9 percent. Also note that the Bulls have inexplicably played just 10 division games so far, but the OVER is 6-4, 60.0 percent in those games.

10- DENVER (+1.35): The Nuggets are another team where you would think it is difficult to find an edge with the OVER, since it is commonly known that they are usually involved in shootouts. However, the OVER has still managed to go 17-12, 58.6 percent on the road, where their games are averaging 213.9 points. That is actually more than their home games, which are averaging 210.9 points. The UNDER is 9-7, 56.3 percent in Denver home games with a posted total of 210 or less.

11 – MILWAUKEE (+1.17): The Bucks have been a steady OVER team both home and away, as all of their games are averaging 198.1 points with the OVER going 34-27, 55.7 percent. That OVER record improves to 19-14 in games with posted totals of 194 points or less.

12 – ATLANTA (+1.05): The Hawks have been more OVER-friendly at home, where their games average 199.9 points with the OVER going 16-13-1, 55.2 percent. The OVER has done extremely well in Atlanta home games with posted totals less then 200, going 13-8, 61.9 percent.

TOP UNDER VARIANCE TEAMS

24 – SEATTLE (-1.66): We suppose that there is a common misconception that the Sonics are a higher scoring team than they actually are. Yes, Seattle games are averaging 201.6 points, but their posted totals have been generally higher than that, and as a result, the UNDER is 35-26, 57.4 percent in all Sonics games. Furthermore, the UNDER is a lucrative 22-11 in Sonics games with a posted total of 200 or higher.

25 – HOUSTON (-1.80): Rockets games are averaging just 189.6 points this season, with the UNDER going 34-27, 55.7 percent overall including 18-13, 58.1 percent at home. Another good situation has been road games with a posted total of 185 or more, where the UNDER is 14-8, 63.6 percent.

26 – LA CLIPPERS (-1.83): The Clippers simply cannot score this season, as the team is averaging 94.0 points per game overall, and as a result the UNDER is 35-22-2, 61.4 percent in all Clipper games overall. In fact, it is difficult to find a spot where the UNDER is not a good play, as it is 21-12, 63.6 percent at home and 14-10-2, 58.3 percent on the road. That road UNDER percentage can be improved by only taking road games where the posted total is less than 200, as the UNDER is then 10-6, 62.5 percent.

27 – MINNESOTA (-1.98): Timberwolves games are averaging 194.4 points this season, and the UNDER has performed better on the road where it is 18-8-2 for an amazing 69.2 percent. While the UNDER is just 16-14-2 overall at home, that record improves to 14-11, 56.0 percent in games with a posted line of 189 or higher.

28 – DETROIT (-2.15): The Pistons have been a strong UNDER team for years, so this comes as no shock. What is surprising is that while the UNDER is an excellent 18-10, 64.3 percent at home, it is the OVER that is 18-14-1 on the road. The time to play the Detroit UNDER on the road has actually been when the total has been less than 188, where the UNDER is 8-5, 61.5 percent.

29 – PORTLAND (-2.30): The Blazers have been another steady UNDER team at 37-24, 60.7 percent overall, and best of all, their UNDER has not varied much at home (19-12) or away (18-12). Almost unbelievably, the UNDER is an incredible 26-10, 72.2 percent when Portland has played inside the Western Conference!

30 – SAN ANTONIO (-3.52): Is it really much of a surprise that the defensive-minded Spurs are the only team underperforming their totals by more than three points? The UNDER is now 18-11, 62.1 percent in all San Antonio road games, as well as 17-13-1, 56.7 percent at home. That home UNDER record improved to 9-5, 64.3 percent when the Spurs are hosting Eastern Conference foes.