Lower Seeds in the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight
If the last seven NCAA Tournaments have been any indication, be prepared to take the points next weekend when this year’s tournament gets whittled down, first to 16 and then to eight teams.
This is because contrary to popular belief, the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight week has traditionally been the most underdog dominated week of the entire tournament. There is a common misconception that the first and second rounds are the times to bet the dogs, but that is only because the biggest upsets are in those rounds, and thus those get the most publicity. What often gets forgotten though is that the first couple of rounds also have a ton of blowouts, especially the opening round when the top seeds are matched up with bottom dwellers and small conference champions. This brings the overall record against the spread of the overall first and second round lower-seeded population to around 50 percent ATS.
Now this may be counter-intuitive, but it has actually been a different story in the third and fourth rounds however. In the Sweet Sixteen rounds, the lower seeded teams are now 44-32-4, 58.0 percent ATS since the 2000-2001 Big Dance. Please note that we said the lower seeds, and not necessarily the underdogs. This means that while you will usually be betting on the underdog, the lower seeded team will sometimes be the favorite, so be prepared to give the points from time to time. Thus, it becomes crucial that you are aware of the seeding of each team, even more critical than knowing who the favorites and underdogs are!
While a 58 percent success rate is a nice payday over 76 decisions, that percentage actually pales when compared to what has happened during the Elite Eight weekend games. In those contests, the lower-seeded clubs are a fantastic 25-11, 69.4 percent ATS the last seven years! In light of this fact, were the upsets by Georgetown over North Carolina and UCLA over Kansas last season really that surprising?
Under Now, Over Later?
Shifting our focus to totals, they say that defense wins championships, but one interpretation of our seven-year study is that defense can get you to the Elite Eight, but you have to have offense if you expect to go beyond that point.
Why, do you ask? Well, it looks like there is no question that the Under is the way to go in the Sweet Sixteen, but is also looks like the Over takes over in the Elite Eight, albeit over a sample size that is obviously half the total. The Under is an amazing 33-22, 60.0 percent in the Sweet Sixteen round, although it should be noted that the average combined total score in those games has been 140.1 points. It has now become fairly routine to see posted totals much lower than that, so there is always the possibility that some of the success for the Under could be attributable to inflated totals. Then again, the Under was 6-2 during the Sweet Sixteen last season even with lower totals, so defense is certainly still a factor.
Once the weekend comes however, perhaps it is time to change our thinking entirely! You see, it is the Over that is 18-10, 64.3 percent in the last seven Elite Eight rounds, and for further proof that the offenses take over at this point, consider that the average combined total score is 13 points higher than the Sweet Sixteen round, at 153.1 total points per game. It should be noted however that the Over was just 2-2 in the Elite Eight last season, although it did go 2-1 in the Final Four and Championship Game combined.
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