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2008 National League Central Division Preview
By: Staff Writer  - StatFox
Published: 3/25/2008  at  5:44:00 PM
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The Central Division has the most teams and like the Atlantic -10 in college basketball, is not thought highly of. This year’s Chicago Cubs enter a century of futility and are the odds on favorite to win back to back titles and second choice at 2-1 to play in World Series (gasp) at Sportsbook.com. Japanese export Kosuke Fukudome should add consistency to lineup known for binge/purge. Having Carlos Zambrano is good, having Kerry Wood as closer could make Cubs fans break out in psychosomatic rash. Milwaukee led the division most of last season before pitching staff imploded. They believed that has been solved and are wise choice at 9-4 odds should the Cubs succumb to fate. The Brewers have plenty of lumber to win this division. Cincinnati is 4-1 pick to take NL Central, placing Dusty Baker in the dugout and redoing several spots on the roster. Hard to pick a team that gives away so many runs with tremulous defense. Any starting staff that has Woody Williams and Wandy Rodriguez as number two and three starters is in trouble, no matter if the 1927 Yankees came back intact. Houston will be entertaining, just not winners. Everything that could go wrong did for the 2006 champion Cardinals, who are just ahead of perennial doormat Pittsburgh at 12-1 for division. After years of making all the right moves, St. Louis is starting anew. The Pirates cleaned house in the front office, does it matter? Here's a look at each of the teams in the NL Central Division, including 2007 key stats and situational records, offseason moves, projected lineups, plus keys and predictions for 2008.

CHICAGO CUBS

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: LOU PINIELLA
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2007 Record: 85-80 (0.515), +-15.3 ML Units (#22 of 30)
2007 Totals (O-U-P): 66-91-8
StatFox Power Rating: : 104 (#11 of 30)
Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 77 (-105)/Under 77 (-125)

2007 Situational Records:


Home Games: 44-38 (-11.3 ML Units)
Road Games: 41-42 (-4 ML Units)
vs. Division: 45-34 (+0.5 ML Units)
Interleague Games: 8-4 (+2.2 ML Units)
Day Games: 43-39 (-8.25 ML Units)
Night Games: 42-41 (-7.05 ML Units)
vs. LH Starters: 18-25 (-14.95 ML Units)
vs. RH Starters: 67-55 (-0.35 ML Units)

Key 2007 Team Stats:


Runs: Scored - 4.64 (#18 of 30), Allowed - 4.26 (#3 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): +0.38 (#10 of 30)
Batting Average: Team - 0.271 (#13 of 30), Opponent - 0.246 (#1 of 30)
Home Runs: Team - 151 (#21 of 30), Opponent - 165 (#15 of 30)

Arrivals: OF Kosuke Fukudome, LHP Neal Cotts, RHPs Michael Wuertz and Jon Lieber
Departures: LHP Will Ohman, IF Omar Infante, OFs Jacque Jones, Cliff Floyd and Angel Pagan, RHPs Steve Trachsel and Mark Prior

Projected Starters:


 C - Geovany Soto (.389/3/8)
1B - Derrek Lee (.317/22/82)
2B - Mark DeRosa (.293/10/72)
SS - Ryan Theriot (.226/3/45)
3B - Aramis Ramirez (.310/26/101)
LF - Alfonso Soriano (.299/33/70)
CF - Felix Pie (.215/2/20)
RF - Kosuke Fukudome (.294/13/48 with Chunichi Dragons)

Projected Rotation:


RHP - Carlos Zambrano (18-13, 3.95)
LHP - Ted Lilly (15-8, 3.83)
RHP - Rich Hill (11-8, 3.92)
RHP - Jason Marquis (12-9. 4.60)
RHP - Ryan Dempster (2-7, 4.73 28 saves)

Projected Closer:


RHP - Bob Howry (6-7, 3.32, 8 saves) or RHP - Kerry Wood (1-1, 3.33)

Strengths: The Cubs spent an exorbitant amount of money prior to 2007 to acquire outfielder Alfonso Soriano, manager Lou Piniella, and pitchers Jason Marquis and Ted Lilly. With these new pieces, Chicago won the NL Central but couldn't get past the NL Division Series. However, with a chemistry-building season under their belts, the Cubs are poised to win the division again behind a very talented lineup. ... After spending most of the 2007 season threatening to leave if he didn't receive a new contract, righthander Carlos Zambrano was rewarded with a five-year, $91.5 million deal on August 17. The 26-year-old thanked the Cubs for the contract by taking a nosedive in his next three starts, allowing 17 earned runs in 16 innings. However, Zambrano bounced back, closing the season with a 4-1 record in his last five starts and, despite earning the loss, allowed just one run in six innings during his lone playoff start against the Arizona Diamondbacks. If Zambrano can carry that momentum into this season, he may get that Cy Young award he guaranteed to win last season.

Weaknesses: The Cubs are under the most pressure of any team in the majors to win a World Series title this season. The 2008 campaign marks the 100th anniversary of the Cubs' last world championship and the entire city of Chicago is getting tired of waiting. Things didn't get any easier when Dempster predicted before spring training that the Cubs would finally end their drought and win the World Series this year. ... Chicago hopes some talented prospects will help them reach their lofty goal. Felix Pie appeared to be a lock as the everyday center fielder last season but failed to show the consistency to stay at the major league level. ... Geovany Soto is in a similar situation this season after impressing in 18 games with the Cubs in 2007. ... Fukudome joins the Cubs after a stellar career in Japan but is coming off right elbow surgery in August.

Rotation Outlook: Now that Zambrano appears to be happy with a new contract, he will lead a talented rotation from the front.  While there is no doubt that Zambrano has a ton of talent, his emotions have the ability to get the best of him, as was evident when he criticized the fans for booing him after losing his fifth straight start on September 3. If Zambrano can keep his emotions in check, opposing teams will be the ones getting hot under the collar. ... Ted Lilly and Jason Marquis had very respectable seasons in 2007 in their first seasons with the Cubs. They should make continued improvement this season and solidifying their roles behind Zambrano. ... Rich Hill is poised for a breakout season after completing his first full campaign in the majors last year, while Ryan Dempster attempts to make the conversion from closer to starter. If he fails, Sean Marshall will step in and should continue to improve with two major-league seasons under his belt.

Bullpen Situation: : The starting rotation needs to step up this season to hide the flaws of the bullpen, particularly the closer's role.  While Dempster logged his third consecutive season with at least 24 saves, he posted his second straight campaign with an ERA of at least 4.73. Dempster blew just three saves last year but was coming off a season in which he had nine blown saves. Howry appears to be the next logical answer after picking up eight saves while spelling a struggling Dempster for portions of the season. However, Piniella is enamored with the idea of putting the oft-injured Wood into that role.

Projected Finish: First in NL Central

CINCINNATI REDS

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: DUSTY BAKER
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2007 Record: 72-90 (0.444), +-16 ML Units (#25 of 30)
2007 Totals (O-U-P): 85-68-9
StatFox Power Rating: : 91 (#23 of 30)
Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 77.5 (-115)/Under 77.5 (-115)

2007 Situational Records:


Home Games: 39-42 (-10.4 ML Units)
Road Games: 33-48 (-5.6 ML Units)
vs. Division: 36-43 (-7.4 ML Units)
Interleague Games: 7-11 (-2.55 ML Units)
Day Games: 19-27 (-8.3 ML Units)
Night Games: 53-63 (-7.7 ML Units)
vs. LH Starters: 23-35 (-11.9 ML Units)
vs. RH Starters: 49-55 (-4.1 ML Units)

Key 2007 Team Stats:


Runs: Scored - 4.83 (#14 of 30), Allowed - 5.27 (#27 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.44 (#22 of 30)
Batting Average: Team - 0.267 (#16 of 30), Opponent - 0.282 (#27 of 30)
Home Runs: Team - 204 (#3 of 30), Opponent - 198 (#28 of 30)

Arrivals: RHPs Francisco Cordero, Josh Fogg, Gary Majewski, Edison Volquez, and Justin James, LHPs Bill Bray and Danny Herrera
Departures: LHPs Eddie Guardado and Eric Milton, RHP Kirk Saarloos, IF Mark Bellhorn

Projected Starters:


 C - David Ross (.203/17/39)
1B - Scott Hatteberg (.310/10/47)
2B - Brandon Phillips (.288/30/94)
SS - Alex Gonzalez (.272/16/55)
3B - Edwin Encarnacion (.289/16/76)
LF - Adam Dunn (.264/40/106)
CF - Ryan Freel (.245/3/16)
RF - Ken Griffey, Jr. (.277/30/93)

Projected Rotation:


RHP - Aaron Harang (16-6, 3.73)
RHP - Bronson Arroyo (9-15, 4.23)
RHP - Matt Belisle (8-9, 5.23)
RHP - Josh Fogg (10-9, 4.94)
LHP - Jeremy Affeldt (4-3, 3.51)

Projected Closer:


RHP - Francisco Cordero (0-4, 2.98, 44 saves)

Strengths: The Reds' greatest strength this year won't throw a single pitch, field a ground ball or even swing a bat. After spending last season as a member of the media, three-time NL Manager of the Year Dusty Baker decided to return to the dugout in 2008 to take over the Reds. Baker brings a wealth of baseball experience to Cincinnati, having won the NL pennant with the San Francisco Giants in 2002. Baker may be the man to lead the Reds back to the playoffs for the first time since the 1995 season. ... Brandon Phillips, 26, had a breakout season in 2007 and and should continue to improve after blasting 30 home runs with 94 RBI and a .288 average last season. ... Phillips leads an offense that finished third in the majors with 204 home runs last year.

Weaknesses: When a team finishes with a 72-90 record and in fifth place in the division, there is plenty of room for improvement. Beyond Harang, who has proved to be an elite starting pitcher in recent seasons, the Reds' rotation leaves a lot to be desired. Arroyo, who was an All-Star in 2006, had a dismal 2007 season, losing nine of his first 11 decisions. ... Age could begin to wear on the Reds this season with several players heading into the twilight of their careers. Ken Griffey Jr. is 38 and played in 144 games last season. However, it was the most games the slugger has played since 1999 and he isn't getting any younger. Scott Hatteberg led the team in hitting last season, but is also 38 and played in just 116 games last season - his fewest since the 2001 campaign.

Rotation Outlook: Harang appears to have found his groove as the staff ace. The 29-year-old eclipsed 210 strikeouts, 230 innings and 30 starts for the second consecutive season in 2007. He posted a 3.73 ERA following a 3.76 ERA in 2006. Harang has been a juggernaut over the last four seasons, so expect nothing less in 2008. ... 31-year-old Arroyo could struggle again this season. He confused hitters during his first season in the NL in 2006, but they began to solve Arroyo in 2007. His 4.23 ERA and 232 hits surrendered in 210 2/3 innings define his struggles. ... The Reds did bolster the staff slightly by adding former Colorado Rockies starter Josh Fogg. Fogg's statistics should improve this season after he escapes the thin air and high altitude of Coors Field.

Bullpen Situation: : The Reds' biggest problem last year may become their biggest asset in 2008. After losing several games in the late innings due to a bullpen which had just 34 saves last season and posted a league-worst 5.13 ERA, Reds management added closer Francisco Cordero during the offseason. Cordero, who signed a four-year, $46 million contract to join the Reds from the Milwaukee Brewers, finished second in the NL with 44 saves and a 2.98 ERA in 2007. ... The acquisition of Cordero allows David Weathers to move into a setup role, where he should flourish after logging 33 saves last season. ... Jared Burton should emerge as the primary middle reliever after posting an impressive 2.51 ERA in 47 games during the second half of his rookie season in 2007.

Projected Finish: Fourth in NL Central

HOUSTON ASTROS

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: CECIL COOPER
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2007 Record: 73-89 (0.451), +-19 ML Units (#28 of 30)
2007 Totals (O-U-P): 79-76-7
StatFox Power Rating: : 85 (#27 of 30)
Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 76.5 (-115)/Under 76.5 (-115)

2007 Situational Records:


Home Games: 42-39 (-3.9 ML Units)
Road Games: 31-50 (-15.05 ML Units)
vs. Division: 35-44 (-11.55 ML Units)
Interleague Games: 9-9 (+0.4 ML Units)
Day Games: 18-27 (-10 ML Units)
Night Games: 55-62 (-8.95 ML Units)
vs. LH Starters: 22-23 (-2.05 ML Units)
vs. RH Starters: 51-66 (-16.9 ML Units)

Key 2007 Team Stats:


Runs: Scored - 4.46 (#24 of 30), Allowed - 5.02 (#20 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.56 (#23 of 30)
Batting Average: Team - 0.260 (#23 of 30), Opponent - 0.273 (#21 of 30)
Home Runs: Team - 167 (#17 of 30), Opponent - 206 (#30 of 30)

Arrivals: RHPs Jose Valverde, Shawn Chacon, Doug Brocail and Oscar Villarreal, SS Miguel Tejada, 2B Kaz Matsui, OF/1B Darin Erstad, OF Michael Bourn and Reggie Abercrombie
Departures: RHPs Brad Lidge, Juan Gutierrez, Chad Qualls and Matt Albers, IF Chris Burke, OF Luke Scott, SS Adam Everett and Eric Bruntlett

Projected Starters:


 C - J.R. Towles (.375/1/12)
1B - Lance Berkman (.278/34/102)
2B - Kaz Matsui (.288/4/37)
SS - Miguel Tejada (.296/18/81)
3B - Ty Wigginton (.28/22/67)
LF - Carlos Lee (.303/32/119)
CF - Michael Bourn (.277/1/6)
RF - Hunter Pence (.322/17/69)

Projected Rotation:


RHP - Roy Oswalt (14-7, 3.18)
LHP - Wandy Rodriguez (9-13, 4.58)
RHP - Brandon Backe (3-1, 3.77)
RHP - Woody Williams (8-15, 5.27)
RHP - Chris Sampson (7-8, 4.59)

Projected Closer:


RHP - Jose Valverde (1-4, 2.66, 47 saves)

Strengths: Offense will be key for the Astros, and if their lineup can stay healthy, they should score plenty of runs. ... Lance Berkman has been one of the most consistent hitters over the past five seasons and look for that trend to continue in 2008.  Berkman logged over 100 RBI for the third time in five seasons in 2007 and eclipsed the 30-home run plateau for the third time in the previous four campaigns. The 32-year-old first baseman's batting average fell below his career .300 mark in 2007 but the slugger still managed to hit .278. ... Berkman will get more support in the lineup with the acquisition of Miguel Tejada in a trade from the Baltimore Orioles. Tejada posted a .296 average last season with 18 home runs and 81 RBI in just 133 games - the first season the 31-year-old shortstop has missed a game since the 2000 campaign.

Weaknesses: The Astros need some inexperienced players to step up in a big way if they are going to compete for a playoff spot.  Michael Bourn impressed in 105 games for the Phillies last season, posting a .277 batting average with 18 stolen bases. The Astros hope he can improve upon his power numbers after hitting just one home run while collecting six RBI. ... Rookie J.R. Towles is slotted in as the starting catcher. While his statistics over 14 games last season were very strong - .375 average with one home run and 12 RBI - he'll need to find consistency for an entire season. starting pitchers in the majors over the past four seasons. The 30-year-old righthander logged over 210 innings and made at least 32 starts for the fourth straight season last year.

Rotation Outlook: Roy Oswalt has emerged as one of the best starting pitchers in the majors over the past four seasons. The 30-year-old righthander logged over 210 innings and made at least 32 starts for the fourth straight season last year. Oswalt's ERA and strikeouts dropped slightly in 2007 but he will once again spearhead the rotation in 2008. ... Beyond Oswalt, Houston has concerns in the rotation. Rodriguez is listed as the No. 2 starter but needs to improve on the road, where he was 3-10 with a 6.37 ERA compared to his 6-3 record and 2.94 ERA at home. ... The rotation will benefit from the return of Brandon Backe, who missed almost the entire 2006 and 2007 seasons while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The 29-year-old Backe returned on September 4 last season and went 3-1 with a 3.77 ERA in five starts, earning a one-year, $800,000 deal to return to the Astros this season.

Bullpen Situation: : The bullpen was bolstered during the offseason with the addition of Jose Valverde. The 28-year-old righthander notched a major league-leading 47 saves last season with the Arizona Diamondbacks - a franchise record and career high. He also logged a 2.66 ERA with 78 strikeouts in 64 1/3 innings. Valverde is a major improvement over Brad Lidge, who, after picking up 74 saves between 2005 and 2006 for the Astros, signed with the Phillies in the offseason. He had blown eight saves and lost his job as the closer last season. ... The biggest problem Houston may have during the middle innings is finding enough pitchers to fill the gaps. The Astros will rely heavily on some younger talent to fill the void left by Lidge and reliever Chad Qualls, who was included in the trade for Valverde.

Projected Finish: Third in NL Central

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: NED YOST
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2007 Record: 83-79 (0.512), +-5.8 ML Units (#15 of 30)
2007 Totals (O-U-P): 86-69-7
StatFox Power Rating: : 100 (#14 of 30)
Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 85 (-115)/Under 85 (-115)

2007 Situational Records:


Home Games: 51-30 (+11.25 ML Units)
Road Games: 32-49 (-17.05 ML Units)
vs. Division: 43-36 (+2.55 ML Units)
Interleague Games: 8-7 (-0.9 ML Units)
Day Games: 24-30 (-9.05 ML Units)
Night Games: 59-49 (+3.25 ML Units)
vs. LH Starters: 28-23 (+2.45 ML Units)
vs. RH Starters: 55-56 (-8.25 ML Units)

Key 2007 Team Stats:


Runs: Scored - 4.94 (#11 of 30), Allowed - 4.79 (#15 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): +0.15 (#13 of 30)
Batting Average: Team - 0.262 (#21 of 30), Opponent - 0.269 (#19 of 30)
Home Runs: Team - 231 (#1 of 30), Opponent - 161 (#13 of 30)

Arrivals: OFs Mike Cameron and Gabe Kapler, Cs Jason Kendall and Eric Munson, RHPs Eric Gagne, Greg Aquino and Guillermo Mota
Departures: RHP Matt Wise, OFs Geoff Jenkins and Kevin Mench, 3B Corey Koskie, C Johnny Estrada

Projected Starters:


 C - Jason Kendall (.242/3/41)
1B - Prince Fielder (.288/50/119)
2B - Rickie Weeks (.235/16/36)
SS - J.J. Hardy (.277/26/80)
3B - Bill Hall (.254/14/63)
LF - Ryan Braun (.324/34/97)
CF - Mike Cameron (.242/21/78)
RF - Corey Hart (.295/24/81)

Projected Rotation:


RHP - Ben Sheets (12-5, 3.82)
RHP - Jeff Suppan (12-12, 4.62)
RHP - Yovani Gallardo (9-5, 3.67)
RHP - Carlos Villanueva (8-5, 3.94)
RHP - Dave Bush (12-10, 5.12)

Projected Closer:


RHP - Eric Gagne (4-2, 3.81, 16 saves)

Strengths: The Brewers boasted one of the majors' best offenses last year, pounding out an NL-leading 231 home runs - 18 more than the second-place Philadelphia Phillies.  Fielder led the power surge, winning the NL home run title with 50 home runs. Braun showed his tremendous upside with 34 homers and 97 RBI in just 113 games. Milwaukee also ranked fifth in the NL, averaging 4.94 runs per game. ... Braun's statistics should be even more impressive playing a full season. Contributing to his increase in production should be the fact he'll spend less time diving for balls at the hot corner as he shifts to left field.

Weaknesses: The Brewers appeared to be in the driver's seat for a playoff spot after spending most of the season at or near the top of the NL Central. However, a lack of experience may have hurt them down with a number players participating in their first pennant race. Milwaukee's flirtation with the postseason should help this season, but six of eight starting position players are aged 28 or younger. ... The Brewers also need to step on defense after finishing in a tie for fourth-worst in the NL with 109 errors. starting rotation. However, that talent has had a hard time staying healthy as well as living up to its enormous potential.

Rotation Outlook: The Brewers have plenty of talent in the starting rotation. However, that talent has had a hard time staying healthy as well as living up to its enormous potential.  Milwaukee's pitching staff combined for a dismal 4.41 ERA last season - 15th-best in the majors. Jeff Suppan led the team with a 4.62 ERA. ... Ben Sheets has arguably some of the best stuff in the majors, but has failed to reach the 157-inning plateau in each of the last three seasons. ... If the pitching staff gets bit by the injury bug again this season, the Brewers should have plenty of arms to fill the gaps with eight pitchers fighting for spots in the starting rotation.

Bullpen Situation: : While no team will likely be afraid of the Brewers' middle relief, opposing clubs could be in trouble if they are trailing on the scoreboard entering the eighth inning.  Derrick Turnbow has blossomed into one of the elite setup men in the majors, logging 33 holds in 77 appearances with 84 strikeouts in 68 innings last season. ... This year, however, Turnbow won't be setting up for Francisco Cordero, who signed with the Cincinnati Reds during the offseason after finishing second in the NL with 44 saves in 2007. ... Milwaukee replaced Cordero with Eric Gagne, who has been a shell of his former self in recent years after missing nearly the entire 2005 and 2006 seasons with elbow and back surgeries. Gagne stormed out of the gate in 2007, logging 16 saves in 17 opportunities with a 2.19 ERA while holding opponents to just a .192 batting average with the Texas Rangers before being dealt to the Boston Red Sox on July 31. Gagne unraveled in Boston, posting a 2-2 record with a 6.75 ERA in 20 relief appearances before making five appearances in the playoffs, going 0-1 and allowing three runs in 4 1/3 innings.

Projected Finish: Second in NL Central

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: JOHN RUSSELL
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2007 Record: 68-94 (0.42), +-16.4 ML Units (#27 of 30)
2007 Totals (O-U-P): 78-68-16
StatFox Power Rating: : 86 (#26 of 30)
Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 70.5 (-115)/Under 70.5 (-115)

2007 Situational Records:


Home Games: 37-44 (-9.05 ML Units)
Road Games: 31-50 (-7.38 ML Units)
vs. Division: 36-44 (-0.55 ML Units)
Interleague Games: 5-10 (-5 ML Units)
Day Games: 23-31 (-3.38 ML Units)
Night Games: 45-63 (-13.05 ML Units)
vs. LH Starters: 23-25 (+0.15 ML Units)
vs. RH Starters: 45-69 (-16.58 ML Units)

Key 2007 Team Stats:


Runs: Scored - 4.47 (#23 of 30), Allowed - 5.22 (#26 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.75 (#28 of 30)
Batting Average: Team - 0.263 (#20 of 30), Opponent - 0.288 (#29 of 30)
Home Runs: Team - 148 (#22 of 30), Opponent - 174 (#23 of 30)

Arrivals: RHP Byung-Hyun Kim, LHP Phil Dumatrait, IF Chris Gomez and Josh Wilson
Departures: RHP Salomon Torres, IF Cesar Izturis

Projected Starters:


 C - Ronny Paulino (.263/11/55)
1B - Adam LaRoche (.272/21/88)
2B - Freddy Sanchez (.304/11/81)
SS - Jack Wilson (.296/12/56)
3B - Jose Bautista (.254/15/63)
LF - Jason Bay(.247/21/84)
CF - Nyjer Morgan (.299/1/7)
RF - Xavier Nady (.278/20/72)

Projected Rotation:


LHP - Tom Gorzelanny (14-10, 3.88)
RHP - Ian Snell (9-12, 3.76)
LHP - Paul Maholm (10-15, 5.02)
RHP - Matt Morris (10-11, 4.89)
LHP - Zach Duke (3-8, 5.53)

Projected Closer:


RHP - Matt Capps (4-7, 2.28, 18 saves)

Strengths: Pirates management, headed by new general manager Neal Harrington, is just beginning to realize the value of holding onto talented prospects as opposed to trading them for veterans with huge contracts. After suffering through its 15th consecutive losing season, Pittsburgh has nowhere to go but up. ... Several players need to bounce back from dismal 2007 seasons after attracting attention during a breakout 2006 campaign. ... Jason Bay, who had an awful 2007 season, should regain his 2005 and 2006 form, when he batted over .300 with at least 30 home runs and 100 RBI. ... Freddy Sanchez battled through a shoulder injury which ultimately ended his season in late September to become the first Pirates infielder since 1982-1983 to hit over .300 in consecutive seasons. The Pirates rewarded Sanchez, 30, by signing the second baseman to a three-year contract that could be worth up to $19 million.

Weaknesses: Nearly every player on the roster underperformed last season, with Sanchez the only regular starter with a batting average of at least .300. ... The Pirates finished 19th in the majors with a .263 team batting average and had 1,135 strikeouts - 11th most in the league. Pittsburgh also finished 23rd in the majors, scoring just 724 runs, while its 148 home runs ranked 22nd. ... Ex-Pirates GM Dave Littlefield sealed his own fate last July when he dealt up-and-coming center fielder Rajai Davis and fellow minor league pitcher Stephen MacFarland to the San Francisco Giants in exchange for 33-year-old righthander Matt Morris, who is owed $9.5 million this season - about 24 percent of the team's overall payroll, which was approximately $38.5 million in 2007. With the Pirates already out of the playoffs at that point, it was a bizarre move for a team looking toward the future. Morris' declining skills and pricey contract will affect Pittsburgh again this season.

Rotation Outlook: The rotation might be the one bright spot for the Pirates if the youthful staff can live up to its potential. ... Tom Gorzelanny was the only starter to forge a winning record last season, which is an impressive feat on a team that posted a 68-94 record. However, the 25-year-old lefthander allowed 23 hits and 12 runs in 11 2/3 innings during his last two starts of 2007, and hasn't bounced back this spring. If Gorzelanny hits a slump this season, it could spell doom for the rest of the rotation. ... Ian Snell showed flashes of his true talent last season, striking out 10 on a trio of occasions, and also posted a 4-1 record in six starts during May. However, Snell struggled to find consistency and endured some equally painful starts. At only 26, Snell should continue to mature this season.

Bullpen Situation: : The bullpen certainly did its share last season to contribute to a 4.93 team ERA. Things should change slightly this season, but probably not enough to lift the Pirates to their first winning season since 1992. ... Matt Capps did a terrific job after being promoted to the closer's role in early June following the third blown save of the season for Salomon Torres, who is no longer with the team. Capps went the rest of the season with just two blown saves in 20 opportunities and hopes to duplicate that success in 2008. ... The Pirates will depend on a committee of pitchers to bridge the gap to Capps. Pittsburgh has 11 pitchers listed on its bullpen depth chart, including 33-year-old Damaso Marte, who will serve as the primary setup man for Capps. Marte posted a 2-0 record with a 2.38 ERA in 65 games last season, holding left-handed hitters to a minute .094 batting average.

Projected Finish: Sixth in NL Central

ST LOUIS CARDINALS

Division: NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Manager: TONY LARUSSA
LOCAL TEAM NEWS LINK
2007 Record: 78-84 (0.481), +-5.2 ML Units (#14 of 30)
2007 Totals (O-U-P): 71-77-14
StatFox Power Rating: : 93 (#20 of 30)
Sportsbook.com Season Wins Prop: Over 75 (-115)/Under 75 (-115)

2007 Situational Records:


Home Games: 43-38 (-1.75 ML Units)
Road Games: 35-46 (-3.45 ML Units)
vs. Division: 43-37 (+4.95 ML Units)
Interleague Games: 6-9 (-2.55 ML Units)
Day Games: 27-23 (+2.8 ML Units)
Night Games: 51-61 (-8 ML Units)
vs. LH Starters: 29-27 (+1.35 ML Units)
vs. RH Starters: 49-57 (-6.55 ML Units)

Key 2007 Team Stats:


Runs: Scored - 4.48 (#22 of 30), Allowed - 5.12 (#23 of 30)
Scoring Differential (RPG): -0.64 (#25 of 30)
Batting Average: Team - 0.274 (#11 of 30), Opponent - 0.271 (#20 of 30)
Home Runs: Team - 141 (#24 of 30), Opponent - 168 (#17 of 30)

Arrivals: 3B Troy Glaus and David Freese, SS Cesar Izturis, IF Luis Rodriguez, RHP Matt Clement
Departures: 3B Scott Rolen, LHP Mike Maroth, IF Scott Spiezio, OFs Jim Edmonds, Brady Clark and So Taguchi

Projected Starters:


 C - Yadier Molina (.275/6/40)
1B - Albert Pujols (.327/32/103)
2B - Adam Kennedy (.219/3/18)
SS - Cesar Izturis (.258/0/16)
3B - Troy Glaus (.262/20/62)
LF - Chris Duncan (.259/21/70)
CF - Rick Ankiel (.328/11/39)
RF - Skip Schumaker (.333/2/19)

Projected Rotation:


RHP - Adam Wainwright (14-12, 3.70)
RHP - Braden Looper (12-12, 4.94)
RHP - Joel Pineiro (6-4, 3.96)
RHP - Matt Clement (5-5, 6.61 with Boston Red Sox in 2006)
RHP - Anthony Reyes (2-14, 6.04)

Projected Closer:


RHP - Jason Isringhausen (4-0, 2.48, 32 saves)

Strengths: Adam Wainwright put together a solid 2007 season in his first campaign as a full-time starter after filling a vacancy left by closer Jason Isringhausen in 2006. Wainwright will look to take further strides early in 2008, as the Cardinals will be without ace Chris Carpenter. ... Isringhausen returned to form in 2007 after a disappointing 2006 season, which culminated with arthroscopic surgery on his left hip to correct a degenerative condition. The 35-year-old righthander blew a career-high 10 saves in 43 opportunities in 2006 and was 0-4 with a 3.55 ERA - his highest since a 3.78 mark for Oakland in 2000. However, Izzy bounced back with 32 saves in 34 opportunities in 2007. ... Rick Ankiel shocked everyone last season. After officially retiring as a pitcher before 2005, Ankiel converted to the outfield and earned an August call-up last season. The 28-year-old impressed enough to seize the starting center field position entering 2008.

Weaknesses: 2005 MVP Albert Pujols is coming off the worst season of his career and could be limited again in 2008 after it was revealed that the slugger has a torn ulnar collateral ligament, bone spurs, arthritis and swelling in his right elbow. Pujols has been told he eventually will need to have the elbow reconstructed, but the 28-year-old first baseman is electing to have the surgery next winter as opposed to missing the entire 2008 season while recovering. If Pujols can't produce, the Cardinals will be hard- pressed to generate offense. ... "Tommy John" surgery ended ace Carpenter's 2007 season after just one start and sent the rotation into a downward spiral. Wainwright is the only returning starter to finish last season with a record above .500 with at least 12 starts. The 2005 Cy Young winner is targeting July for his return.

Rotation Outlook: If Wainwright can build on last season's momentum, he could become a legitimate front-line starter in the NL. However, the rest of the rotation lacks the consistency to help the Cardinals compete for a division title - or a playoff spot for that matter. ...  Matt Clement is coming off shoulder surgery which kept him out for the entire 2007 season and is likely past his prime at age 33. The same can be said of Joel Pineiro, who has a 61-58 record with a 4.54 ERA lifetime as a starter. ... Anthony Reyes is coming off one of the worst seasons ever for a Cardinals pitcher, and Braden Looper has not shown the ability to be effective on a consistent basis, whether in the bullpen or as a member of the rotation.

Bullpen Situation: : Baring the injury-riddled 2006 season, Isringhausen has been as steady a closer over the last five years as anyone in baseball. Look for the same this season, unless his age begins to show. ... The Cardinals shouldn't have trouble getting to Isringhausen, with Russ Springer leading a middle relief corps which boasted a respectable 3.37 ERA last season. ... The 33-year-old Springer had the best season of his career in 2007, setting career-highs with 76 appearances and a 2.18 ERA while logging 66 strikeouts in 66 innings.

Projected Finish: Fifth in NL Central

* Divisional Previews were compiled by Steve Makinen & Doug Upstone with contributions from PA Sports Ticker.

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