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NBA Playoffs –Key Sunday Game One Info
By: Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 4/19/2008  at  8:42:00 PM
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After a hardy first day of NBA playoff basketball, all four home teams have decided home court edges with sizeable point spread margins. Boston has the largest spread by far, yet covering such a figure could be work against excited Hawks. Detroit is in similar spot versus athletic Sixers, and believes vast postseason experience will win out. The Lakers and Denver will have no shortage of points, while Toronto and Orlando will launch a number of three-pointers, making nearby Cape Canaveral a better possible site to this contest.

(6)Toronto at (3) Orlando (-6.5, 196)

Key Game Info:
Toronto will utilize Chris Bosh in attempt to draw Dwight Howard away from the basket, especially in this series opener. If Bosh hits a few open jumpers and the three-point brigade of the Raptors is on target, they could do some damage. Orlando wants Howard near the hoop on both sides of the floor, creating chances for Rashard Lewis and Hedu Turkoglu. First of many chances for road team to cover in this series.

Key Side Trends:
-Raptors are 9-4 ATS as playoff underdogs.
-Raptors are 7-19 ATS in last 26 games.
-Magic are 17-7 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points this season.
-Magic are 22-9 ATS versus good 3-point shooting teams making 36 percent or more of their attempts this season.

Key Total System:
Play UNDER on road teams like Toronto where the total is between 190 and 199.5 points averaging 48 or less rebounds a game on the season, on Sunday games. (13-3, 81.2 percent, L3Y)

Season Series: Magic 2-1 SU & ATS, 2-1 OVER
History at Orlando: Magic 2-3 and 104 ATS vs Raptors
StatFox Take: Magic by 9

(8)Denver at (1) L.A. Lakers (-8.5, 224)

Key Game Info:
Lakers have to be mildly concerned; they had the best record in the Western Conference and have to face a team that won 50 games with two All-Stars. Both Carmelo Anthony and Allen Iverson are proven big game performers and don’t expect to go quietly. Nevertheless, from matchup perspective, L.A. has the right type of squad that can negate many of the edges the Nuggets might have against other foes. Denver must find right personal to cope with Kobe, since he has destroyed Denver either shooting or dishing the rock.

Key Side Trends:
-Nuggets are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a non-cover.
-Nuggets are 3-13 ATS in road games versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by six or more points a game.
-Lakers are 18-5 ATS versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots a game this season.
-Lakers are 17-4 ATS versus defensive teams allowing 99 or more points a game in the half of this season.

Key Total System:
Play OVER on all teams like Denver where the total is greater than or equal to 210, after two or more consecutive Unders, is an excellent offensive team (>=102 PPG) against a  defensive team allowing 98-102 PPG. (31-13, 70.4 percent L5Y)

Season Series: Lakers 3-0 SU & ATS, 2-1 UNDER
History at Los Angeles: Lakers 4-1 and 4-1 ATS vs Nuggets
StatFox Take: L.A. by 7


(7)Philadelphia at (2) Detroit (-9.5, 178)

Key Game Info:
It is battle of wills in MoTown, with Philadelphia attempting to use better athleticism, against stronger and savvier playoff Pistons. Andre Miller versus Chauncey Billups will be special head-to-head matchup. This will be tremendous learning experience for Philly youngsters Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert, in this atmosphere. Coach Flip Saunders has never found the right postseason formula, no matter where he’s coached. Big opening victory starts to build confidence within veteran players.

Key Side Trends:
-Sixers are 17-6 ATS in road games off a road loss over the last two seasons.
-Sixers are 4-10-3 ATS in first round of the NBA playoffs.
-Pistons are 16-4 ATS after two consecutive covers as a favorite this season.
-Pistons are 0-5 ATS playing with three or more days rest.

Key Total System:
Play UNDER on home teams where the total is 179.5 or less and clubs like Detroit are outscoring their opponents by three or more points game, after allowing 75 points or less. (35-11, 76.1 percent, L5Y)

Season Series: Sixers 2-2 SU & 3-1ATS, 3-1 UNDER
History at Detroit: Pistons 3-2 and 2-3 ATS vs Sixers
StatFox Take: Detroit by 9

(8)Atlanta at (1) Boston (-15, 189)

Key Game Info:
This could go down as one of the biggest first round; first game upsets if this were to occur. Atlanta is dripping with youngsters wanting to make names for themselves and can run and create havoc. Too much talk and lack of experience will be undoing, as long as Boston buttons both lips. Celtics just need to do the Tiger Woods and grind up the Hawks for 48 minutes and watch them walk slump-shouldered into locker room.

Key Side Trends:
-Hawks are 4-1 ATS with three or more days off.
-Hawks are 1-8 ATS in a road game where the total is between 185 and 189.5 points this season.
-Celtics are 17-4 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of this season.
-Celtics are 16-5 ATS off a straight up win.

Key Total System:
Play OVER on all teams where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points and a team like Atlanta is revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off a road loss by 10 points or more. (114-67, 63 percent L11Y)

Season Series: Celtics 3-0 SU & 2-1ATS, 3-0 UNDER
History at Boston: Celtics 3-2 and 2-3 ATS vs Hawks
StatFox Take: Boston by 15


Lines Provided by Sportsbook.com.


 

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