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Bettors Decision – Suns or Spurs
By: Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 4/21/2008  at  8:57:00 PM
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If the San Antonio Spurs are like a cat, they might not be in the post-season a real long time, since they used up three lives already, to hold off Phoenix in double overtime 117-115 in non-cover victory. For bettors, the ways to interrupt the Spurs win are more varied than the number of flops they took in series opener. Let’s take a look at the numerous positives and negatives (depending what side you had or will have the money on) from game one and what they mean for Tuesday night.

For those that backed San Antonio in game one, you had a few chances to cover, though not as many as you would have expected. In order, Michael Finley, Tim Duncan and finally Manu Ginobili bailed out Spurs money line plays, each is spectacular fashion.

Though never reported, coach Gregg Popovich must have a WWE wrestler on the payroll, because the vast number of flops the Spurs take, makes one think of RAW, not professional basketball. Additionally, the Hack-a-Shaq bit was not how you like to see a champion play, though well within the rules of the game, if not good taste, with four banners in last eight years. San Antonio has won four of five; however has covered only twice in last eight outings.

On the other hand, the Duncan gang has to feel pretty good; having taken most everything Phoenix could have thrown at them and survived. They played stale basketball for the first 31 minutes and the rest of the way played even or better than Phoenix. After halftime, the Spurs shot 58.6 percent, including a bug-eyed 50 points in the paint the last 34 minutes. Despite 1-3 regular season record against Nash and company, the game one win has to lend itself to air of invincibility against a team they always beat in the postseason.

Word was inside the Suns locker room, disappointment was present, though not depression. Phoenix was the better team on the enemy’s floor and coach Mike D’Antoni was not able to utilize the team, GM Steve Kerr had put together to defeat hated Spurs. Shaquille O’Neal got in quick foul trouble and was never able to get in offensive flow, or be a real defensive dominator. Amare Stoudemire had to sit at uncomfortable times and though he was often brilliant scoring 33 points, you could  not help but wonder if he hadn’t fouled out, if he flushes the pick and roll pass from Nash, missed by Boris Diaw had late in the second OT. Phoenix will come in 23-11 ATS revenging a road loss vs opponent.

Even with so much that went right, the Suns still lost. It was Yogi Berra, whose wisdom transcends time, who understands the Suns plight when facing San Antonio, “they played good enough to lose”. No denying the fact, this Suns team had at least six spots in the game, where one basket or defensive stop likely would have tilted the outcome in their favor. Even if they are 4-1 ATS near the River Walk area, Phoenix is walking uphill the rest of the series, with game one best of seven losers walking away victorious 21.8 percent of the time from a series.

Bookmaker.com lowered the Spurs to 2.5-point favorites and bettors with plenty of time to ponder, dropped it even further to two-points. Fans of the Planet Orange squad like the fact their team is 33-16 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 and is even more excited when they realize they are 8-1 ATS off a loss of three or less points.

Spurs fans are more anxious with the knowledge their team is 8-20 ATS when favored by less than six at home and 1-5 against the number if it is three or less points.

This much anticipated Game Dos has one unusual feature that would seem to favor the club in the white uniforms, but hasn’t lately. The Spurs, being a more veteran team would seemingly value the two days between contests, yet are just 1-7 ATS in last eight. Phoenix has embraced the break period and has covered last six in a row.

TNT can only hope to have another such ballgame starting at 9:30 Eastern.


StatFox Take – San Antonio by 1

 

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