Some people shy away from trends because they feel for everyone that is relevant, the other side has one just as powerful. While that type of thinking works for some, trends are often descriptive information, relating to how a team or individual has played in a given situation. The important part is to understand what the angle means to the game at hand, based on recent history.For example, this afternoon the Detroit Tigers are fighting to get back to .500 with 9-13 record. The Tigers bats are starting to warm up with three consecutive wins, however playing in the daylight has been a detriment for the Tigers who are 1-10 against the money line in day games this season. As poorly as Detroit has performed, today’s opponent Texas, has been significantly worse. The Rangers have lost six in a row and 11 of 13. To make matters worse, they will send Jason Jennings to the mound. Jennings is 3-19 in all games over the last two seasons and 3-12 when the total is 8.5 to 10, like it is today in Detroit. (Teams Record)
Bookmaker.com is showing Texas as +163 underdogs and they are 4-18 after six or more consecutive road games over the last two campaigns. Hard to believe there is actually an angle that fits this, nevertheless the Rangers are 22-6 UNDER after allowing 15 runs or more.
In the National League, they to have getaway day afternoon action, with a contest in Colorado, involving the Cubs and the Rockies. The Colorado bats have been unusually quiet this season, making Chicago a potentially solid wager knowing they are 10-0 vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's a game this season. Today’s Cubs starter Jason Marquis, has had a great deal of success against clubs with poor on base percentage, posting a 15-4 mark vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .325 or worse. (Cubs Record) In spite of yesterday’s extra inning Over affair, Chicago is 45-23 UNDER vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse. Colorado will go for the split and hopes they can move to 40-21 against an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game. Philadelphia and Milwaukee wrap up their quick two game series and the total might be the play. The Phillies are +117 road underdogs and are 32-13 OVER as visitors when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last two seasons. The Brewers will face Jamie Moyer and are 39-17 OVER against left-handed starters since the beginning of 2007. Florida is at Atlanta and might be in the right spot to earn a win. The Marlins are 17-9 (+14 Units) as a road underdog of +125 to +150. Additionally, the Fish are 14-6 (+13.3 Units) on the road vs. NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs a game on the season. It would not come as a surprise if this contest went Over the posted number of 10, with Florida 51-27 OVER against East Division opponents over the last two campaigns. Baltimore and Seattle will play in the rubber game, with the Mariners a -142 home favorite. Seattle has excelled in this role with 21-4 record as a home favorite of -125 to -150. The M’s starting pitcher Jarrod Washburn has not contributed much to this cause, being 19-27 (-24.8 Units) against the ML in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse. Though in fairness, quite a bit of those numbers occurred in Angels uniform. Either way, Baltimore is still 30-9 UNDER on the road vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .265 or worse.
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