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Wagering on Survival Saturday in NBA
By: Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 4/25/2008  at  10:44:00 AM
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On the first day of a full weekend of NBA action, all four games have survival written all over them. Both Denver and Atlanta are down 0-2 and desperately need a victory to get back in the series, or they will be exactly like the setting Suns. For Houston and Toronto, they each gave unique performance to bring them back into their respective series, the question for them is can they bring that same emotion against a more motivated opponent in Game Four? Most professional basketball bettors prospered yesterday playing hungry teams needing a win, will they be able to survive with selections today?

Orlando at Toronto (Magic lead 2-1) 3:00E TNT

Toronto continued their dominance over Orlando is winning 108-94 in last game as four-point home favorites. The Raptors have taken five of six straight up and against the spread on the home hardwood and covered 10 of last 13 versus the Magic. Toronto was able to play to their strength; meaning point guards T.J. Ford and Jose Calderon were able to find open shooters because of effective pick and roll action and players like Jason Kapono filled up the basket.

Orlando is 10-2 ATS after a loss by 10 points or more this season and realizes they have to do a better job of slowing penetration and sticking with shooters. Controlling the tempo and keeping the crowd out of it will be key in Game 4, center Dwight Howard said. “Whoever comes out and dictates the way the game is going to be played is most likely going to win,” Howard said. “We did it the first two games and they did it last night (Thursday).”

Bookmaker.com has the Magic listed as three point road underdogs and Orlando is 17-5 ATS in that role. They could be in advantageous position, since the Raptors are 3-11 ATS after scoring 100 points or more three straight games this season.

Denver showed a lack of maturity in picking up a half dozen technical fouls in the first two games in Los Angeles and need to channel those emotions into positive results at the Pepsi Center today. “I would prefer us staying more professional and stay away from the trash talking,” Nuggets coach George Karl said Friday. Bettors like Denver chances of regaining poise, taking them from a “Pick” at home to 1.5-point favorites. The Nuggets are 9-2 ATS at home following a loss.

The target of Denver’s running commentary was Kobe Bryant, who after an off-night in the series opener buried the Nuggets for 49 points and 10 assists, giving fuel to the thought possibly they should “zip it” and just play basketball. Though Denver has scored slightly more than the Lakers on the season, L.A. has been able to prosper when the total is this high (230) and is 13-1 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season. Coach Karl’s crew will look to improve upon 15-2 ATS record off two consecutive road games. They have won by an average of better than 10 points per games in exact situation.

For Civil War buffs, coach Mike Woodson, will hope to not have to play the role of Confederate General John Bell Hood to Doc Rivers being Union General William Sherman in the battle of Atlanta in 1864. General, err, coach Woodson has one important task to ask of his troops in this conflict, score more points. In five losses to the Celtics this season, the Hawks have managed a mere 83.6 points per game and have yet to break the 90 point threshold against Boston. Scoring more will not be a given against the NBA’s best defensive squad, thou it will help the Hawks being at Phillips Arena, where they are 25-16 (21-20 ATS). Atlanta is a conspicuous 13-2 ATS in home games when playing with triple revenge vs. opponent over the last two seasons.

Boston biggest challenge would seem to be boredom, posting a 4-1 ATS record against Atlanta and is 9-1 ATS off two consecutive home wins by 10 points or more this season. With Kevin Garnett leading by example, the Celtics have seldom let down this year, explaining why they are 8.5-point road favorites with total of 187. It wouldn’t be a shock if the youthful Hawks act a bit punkish early; however the game is four quarters long and the Celtics cover 75 percent of the time (21-7) off a Boston massacre of 15 or more points. The total would appear to favor Garnett and his gang as well, as the club in the green uniforms is 12-3 ATS in a road game where the total is between 180 and 189.5 points this season.

Tracy McGrady did what many thought was impossible, force Utah to return to Texas to take on the Rockets next week. T-Mac lead a furious 10-0 run late in the fourth quarter to give Houston a seven-point lead and they held on to upset the Utah 94-92 as large nine point road dogs. The Rockets moved their road record this season to 25-17 (23-17-2 ATS) and will seek to have road team dominance in this series, making it four in a row SU and ATS.

Linemakers are still not overly impressed with Houston’s results, as they are 8.5-point road pooches. The Rockets are 17-7-1 ATS off a win and the return of Rafer Alston at the point added a lot to team’s offensive versatility.  Alston missed the end of the regular season and the first two games of the series with a strained right hamstring, but the layoff didn’t seem to hurt him. He made his first five shots Thursday and gave the Jazz someone to worry about other than McGrady. “He made a lot of difference,” Utah coach Jerry Sloan said.

In spite of the Jazz loss, hard to bet against them, since they are 11-3 ATS in home games revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite this season, winning by average of 16.8 PPG.

 

 

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