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After last week’s titanic matchup of Dallas and Philadelphia, Week 10 of the Arena Football schedule slows down a stride, with most of the power teams taking on weaker opposition and the middle of the road clubs facing one another. This leads us to preview the teams struggling to make the playoffs or those who are seeking some respect for a dismal campaign. Just like the Bud Light radio commercials, here’s to you AFL teams stumbling to be even modestly successful.
Friday May 2
Grand Rapids at Colorado 2008 has quickly turned into a disappointment for Colorado (3-5, 2-6 ATS) with two more losses the last couple of weeks. It’s very easy to understand what have been the Crush problems by reviewing simple stats on them. Colorado is 11th in points allowed (57.7) and 12th in points scored at 52.1 per game. Previously, the Crush were one of the top scoring teams in the AFL, presently they are 1-8 ATS when they score 50 to 56 points in a game. Grand Rapids (3-5, 5-3 ATS) ended their three game losing streak with victory over Kansas City. The Rampage was on a scoring rampage in totaling 72 against K.C. and has moved up to second in the league in points scored this season. Though the defense is ranked only 15th in yards allowed, they have managed to cover five games because they rank second in fumble recoveries and fifth in total takeaways. Grand Rapids is just 10-22 ATS on the road after one or more consecutive wins against the spread. Sportsbook.com has Colorado as single point favorite with total of 118. This would seem to favor Grand Rapids, who is 14-5 ATS in games where both teams score 48 or more points over the last three seasons. StatFox Power Line – Colorado by 3 StatFox Edge – Under
Saturday May 3
Kansas City at Utah If Dallas and Philadelphia was the height of excellence in Arena Footballin last weeks action, than Kansas City (1-7, 5-3 ATS) and Utah (0-9, 17-1 ATS) are the exact opposite. Yardage allowed or gained does not tell the whole story as to what happens in the AFL. The Brigade is second in the league in yards allowed on defense and the winless Blaze lead all the teams in total yards. The truer picture comes into focus in other areas. Kansas City is 14th in points surrendered at 60.1 PPG and Utah is dead last at sinister 66 PPG. With such pathetic defenses, scoring is a must. The Blaze register 55.3 PPG, 11.7 less than what they allow and Kansas City is next to last in points scored at 47.7 PPG. From a trend perspective, the numbers favor K.C. who is 8-1 ATS after allowing 53 points or more in two straight games. Utah on the other hand is a 3.5-point favorite and is 2-13 ATS as a home favorite over the last three seasons. Utah couldn’t have a better opponent to pick up first win of the season, nonetheless, covering the spread is tenuous with the Blaze 5-16 ATS after playing their last game on the road. StatFox Power Line – Utah by 3 StatFox Edge – Kansas City covers Arizona at Los Angeles Both Arizona (4-4 SU & ATS) and Los Angeles (3-6 SU & ATS) are firmly in contention to make the playoffs with the Avengers needing to start lifting their efforts. Los Angeles continues to be a turnover machine and has -15 turnover margin having lost six of last seven contests. This puts the defense in consistently bad predicaments and they have allowed the second points at 63.3 per game. Arizona has been alternating wins and losses the last five games and will try to break this cycle with a win. The Rattlers are 25-11 ATS in road games after covering the spread in two out of their last three games and is 40-22 ATS against weak defenses like L.A., allowing 6.25 or more yards per play after eight games into the season. QB Lang Campbell is back under center and will try to take advantage of the Avengers, who are 3-12 ATS vs. excellent ball control teams, with 32 or more possession minutes a game. Los Angeles should at least have confidence against the Rattlers, having taken six of last seven with five covers. L.A. is a two point favorite with total listed at 115. StatFox Power Line – Pick StatFox Edge – L.A. covers
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