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Few predicted that the Florida Marlins would be among the majors’ best teams and even less would have believed 33-year old journeyman Mark Hendrickson would be the team’s top winner after two seasons posting 10-23 record with two other teams. Fewer still thought Cincinnati Reds right-hander Edinson Volquez would emerge as one of baseball’s top starters. Six weeks into the season, however, it’s hard to deny the Hendrickson or Volquez their spots among the elite.
After having their season-high win streak snapped in the series opener, the Marlins go for their eighth win in nine games as they face Volquez and the Reds on Tuesday night in a matchup between two of the NL’s biggest surprises.
Florida (23-15, +12.2 units) is tied for the best record in baseball and is unquestionably the best bet in the majors, despite having traded their top run producer and the franchise leader in wins in the off-season and owning the lowest payroll in the majors. The losses of Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis didn’t stop the young Marlins from winning seven straight from May 4-11. That run ended on Monday night, however, when the Marlins blew a 3-0 lead and lost 8-7 at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
“You never feel secure in this ballpark,” Marlins manager Fredi Gonzalez told the team’s official Web site. “You can put a big number up, just like they can. If you walk a guy or two, the next guy can hit one out of the ballpark. You never feel safe.” In spite of the lack of feeling completely comfortable, Florida is 8-2 against the money line when playing against a team with win percentage 38% to 46% this season.
That victory was the fourth in seven games for the Reds (16-23, -8.6 units), but they haven’t won consecutive games since a three-game streak April 26-28, and they remain in last place in the NL Central.
While the Reds have disappointed early this year, Volquez (5-1, 1.06 ERA) has far exceeded expectations. The right-hander entered the season with a 3-11 record and a 7.20 ERA in 20 major league games spanning three seasons—all with Texas. But he appears to have found the right fit with Cincinnati, winning five of his first seven starts and leading the NL in ERA. He’s also tied for second in the majors with 52 strikeouts.
Volquez held the Chicago Cubs to four hits while striking out 10 in a 9-0 victory on Wednesday. He still hasn’t allowed more than one earned run in any of his outings. “The last two years, I haven’t thrown the ball like I’m throwing right now,” said Volquez, who’s making his first career appearance against the Marlins. “Every pitch I throw, I’ve got a reason for throwing. Before, I’d just throw a pitch.” Volquez has fastball with lots on movement and so far, has mastered the arm motion to throw a devastating change up.
Bookmaker.com oddsmakers like what they have seen and made the Reds a -150 money line favorite with Total at Ov8.5. Cincinnati is 20-6 when favored at home in -110 to -150 range. This season it is ridiculous to dismiss Mark Hendrickson (5-1, 3.56), who takes the mound for the Marlins looking to win his sixth straight decision for the first time since he went 7-0 during an 11-start stretch from July 31-Sept. 25, 2005, while with Tampa Bay.
Hendrickson held Milwaukee to one run in 4 1/3 innings of Florida’s 7-2 win on Thursday, being lifted after throwing 109 pitches. He hasn’t lost since his opening day defeat against the New York Mets, and the Marlins are 6-2 when the left-hander starts. Though, the 6’9 right-hander generally pitches well against lefty’s, he’s had a few hot stretches in his career, giving false hope to the teams paying him. Too often he serves up cement-mixer breaking stuff, leaving batters salivating.
Hendrickson, though, is still looking for his first career win over the Reds. He’s 0-1 with an 8.84 ERA in four career starts against them, including 0-1 with a 6.17 ERA in two starts last season. He is also 5-22 road games vs. teams outscored by opponent by 0.5 or more runs a game on the season. (Team's Record) Hendrickson has seldom had run support on the road after a loss over the last three seasons. The teams he has pitched for are 13-2 UNDER in this exact situation, averaging 2.5 runs per game.
The respective Fox Sports outlets will carry game in each market starting at 7:10 Eastern. Cincy is 6-1 at home the last three years versus the Fish. Umpire Mike Dimuro is expected to call balls and strikes and home teams are perfect 7-0 this season when he is behind the plate.
StatFox Power Line – Reds -227
DAN PIERINGER, STATS Writer contributed to this article.
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