Welcome: Login to StatFox |  Register |  Login to FoxSheets
StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

Cleveland Short-handed Favorite in Game 6
By: Staff Writer  - StatFox
Published: 5/15/2008  at  8:20:00 PM
Print This Article   Print This Article    

It's do or summertime for the Cleveland Cavaliers. One more loss and a second straight Eastern Conference title is history. One more wins, and it's back to Chowder-land for Game 7. After squandering a 14-point lead at Boston in a hail of missed free throws and getting entangled by the Celtics' spiderweb-like defense in Game 5, LeBron James and his teammates are down 3-2 and facing elimination from the NBA playoffs on Friday night at Quicken Loans Arena.

They'll go into Game 6 short-handed. Guard Daniel Gibson, one of the club's best perimeter shooters and a star in last year's postseason, separated his left shoulder going for a loose ball early in the fourth quarter of Game 5 and will need a minimum of one week to recover. The Cavaliers may be done before he's well.

"It's something we didn't want to happen," James said following a light workout Thursday. "It's kind of the tale of our season - a guy goes down in the heat of a playoff series. He's very key to our team. It's not good seeing a guy who is that key to your team in a suit." Gibson underwent an MRI on his shoulder after the club returned from Boston. He was not available for comment. As a few of his teammates got in some extra work, the second-year guard struggled to slip a T-shirt over his head before sitting on a courtside bench alongside James.

Gibson made two 3-pointers and scored 14 points in Cleveland's win in Game 4. In last year's Eastern Conference finals, he scored 31 points - 25 in the second half - as the Cavs put away the Detroit Pistons in Game 6 to advance to their first finals. Though Gibson has had a few shining moments, it’s an exaggeration to think he will be the reason Cleveland wins or losses the series. What will have a far greater impact is if the Cavaliers play four quarters to move to 7-1 ATS as playoff favorites.
 
Cleveland let Boston back in the game after they were ready to be taken out. Nobody expected the Cavs 14-point lead to hold up at Boston, but being unemotional to start the second half when they knew the Celtics were not about to rollover and give up, is inexcusable in a Game Five situation. The lack of intensity brought Boston right back, as they outscored Cleveland 29-17 and out-hustled them for the entire third stanza.

Center Zydrunas Ilgauskas, who scored just six points on only five shots in Game 5, couldn't explain Cleveland's passivity after leading 43-29 with less than four minutes to go in the first half.  "We had them on their heels," he said. "(In the second half) It just seemed like we really weren't into it. We came out a half-step slow."

And the Celtics blew right by Cleveland, especially point guard Rajon Rondo, who scored 20 points with 13 assists, two steals, two blocks and just one turnover in 42 minutes. Late in the first half, the Cavaliers left Rondo, not known for his outside shot, wide open and he knocked down two 3-pointers as the Celtics closed with a 14-3 run that gave them momentum they would carry into the second half. LeBron and teammates will have to do better than 3-12 ATS after successfully covering the spread in two or more consecutive games this season, having lost by more than seven points in these situations.
 
Boston coach Doc Rivers doesn't expect the Cavs to give Rondo so much room next time. And, he doesn't want the youngster to get trigger happy, either. "If they're going to leave him open, I want him to shoot it," Rivers said. "But I don't want him to look for it."

The Celtics, as has been well documented to this point, are still searching for their first road win of these playoffs. They're 7-0 (5-2 ATS) at home, but 0-5 SU and ATS traveling outside Boston's city limits. They'd like nothing more than to get No. 1 in Cleveland, where the Cavs are 4-1, with matching spread record.

Boston isn't the only team having road woes. So far in the second round, home teams are an eye-popping 20-1, a statistical testament if there ever was one to securing home-court advantage during the regular season. The only team to win an away game has been the Pistons, who won by a point in Orlando and are awaiting the winner of this series. Over time, the Celtics are only 1-7 ATS in Eastern conference semifinals and for trivia buffs, no team has won an NBA title after losing its first five road playoff games or by winning just its home games.

Cleveland is a three-point favorite at Sportsbook.com with Total of 178.5. The Cavs have won their last seven outings a playoff favorite of less than five points, compared to the green-clad Celtics,who are 2-10 ATS as post-season underdogs.
 
Despite the club's precarious situation, Coach Mike Brown, his coaching staff and Cleveland's players were remarkably loose as they prepared for what could be their final game of the season. "You can't panic," guard Delonte West said. "This is when it gets fun. This is when you see what your team is made of."

ESPN has the televised rights for this Game Six encounter, starting at 8 Eastern, with the favorite just 3-8-1 ATS in last dozen meetings between these combatants.
 
 

StatFox Power Line – Cleveland by 2
 

 
AP Writer contributed to this article.
8 Free Picks & Analysis from Sports Advisors
Top Consensus Picks ThePlatinumSheet.com
FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
SportsBook.net
SportsBook.net is a FREE Contest and Sports Information website, where you can play the latest Vegas Casino poker games for FREE and access live odds straight from Vegas.

E-mail:   
Manage Subscriptions | Newsletter Archive