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MLB Series Betting – Florida at Philadelphia
By: Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 5/30/2008  at  2:15:00 PM
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Maybe it’s happened, yet it seems unlikely that a last place team would trade its best pitcher and best hitter and end up in first place the following year; however that is precisely what has happened to the Florida Marlins. This gritty band of players have committed to one another, when veteran like Luis Gonzalez and Jorge Cantu were brought on board to mix with young players, who needed a sense of professionalism in order to become better. Second baseman Dan Uggla is second in the National League in home runs with 16 and among his 59 hits; a full 35 have been for extra bases. With a new stadium deal FINALLY in place, management showed commitment by locking up All-Star shortstop Hanley Ramirez to a six-year, $70-million extension two weeks ago. The Marlins are sixth in baseball in runs scored per game.

Philadelphia is starting to play like many thought they would and have moved into second place in the NL East, having won seven of nine, including four in a row. The Phillies offense has been dangerous, to opposing pitchers, having scored 52 runs in last five victories. Last year, Philadelphia hung around and they took advantage of the Mets collapse and won the division. Most figured it was more good fortune than actual skill. The same can’t be said about Charley Manuel’s squad this time around. With slugger Ryan Howard still knocking a few balls out of the park, he’s struggling to stay above the Mendoza Line, batting .206. All-Stars Jimmy Rollins and Chase Utley are on their way to fantastic seasons, but it has been the depth that has made Philly more viable. CF Shane Victorino goes down; Jason Werth doesn’t miss a beat. Rollins was out, Eric Bruntlett put together 10-game hitting streak. Geoff Jenkins is a platoon player for the first time in his career and has not been feeling for the ball at the plate, hitting .290.

The opening game of the series has a pair of veteran hurlers climbing the hill. Florida chooses Mark Hendrickson (7-2, 4.14), who is third in wins in the NL. Hendrickson has been a huge surprise for the Marlins, as they have won eight of his 11 starts. The Phillies are a -150 favorite, with total Un10.5 and interestingly enough, the Fish lefty is 15-3 UNDER as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last three seasons. (Team's Record) Brett Myers (2-6, 5.97) will be the mound opponent and has not won since April 17, scuffling mightily. He and the Phils are 1-9 against the money line at home when the total is 10 or higher since 2002. A FREE FoxSheet is available for series opener.

Game 1 Edge: Marlins

Philadelphia comes into this division series 13-6 at Citizens Bank Park against Florida and will send their ace Cole Hamels (5-3, 3.18) to the mound in the middle game. The left-hander was rocked his last time out at Houston, allowing six runs in four innings, jumping his ERA a half a run. He has a devastating off-speed stuff, though is still prone to no-run games a time or two and be bombed like he was last time. One great aspect of Hamels game is ability to pitch in smallish home park. Since the beginning of 2007, he and the Phils are 13-6 with ERA under three. Ricky Nolasco (4-3, 4.70) will be the opposing pitcher. Nolasco has history of elbow inflammation and is primarily a hard thrower. He has to hit his spots or major league hitters quickly adjust to his velocity. Because his breaking stuff can be generously described as below average, he only pitched into the seventh inning once, as batters adjust. Hamels and the Phillies are 8-2 this season when favored.

Game 2 Edge: Phillies

The series finale will be an afternoon affair with Philadelphia 7-10 (-4.3 units) and Florida 6-5 (+1.5 units) in day baseball. 45-year old Jamie Moyer (5-3, 4.45) is like the city driver, who drives the speed limit right on the button and despite the best efforts of someone younger trying to speed ahead, six stoplights later, they’re still even. Moyer hates to see the month of May end, after 4-1 record, in which he received incredible run support, as the Phillies touched home plate 53 times in his four victories. 23-year old Andrew Miller (4-4, 5.53) will be the opposing pitcher, who after a rocky start, has won four of last six decisions. Miller is an extremely talented work in progress, needing to harness mechanics and command. If he works hard, he could be like Hamels with a much better fastball. His problem today is Philly is 13-7 against lefty’s coming into the three game set, averaging a robust 6.4 RPG.

Game 3 Edge: Phillies

Philadelphia will have an opportunity to take over first place with a sweep, which won’t be easy considering Florida is just one of five teams in baseball to have a winning road record (12-10, +5.3). Both teams have a propensity to play Over the total, given offensive gifts, with oddsmakers catching up. With the Phillies swinging hotter bats at present and playing at home, throwing support towards the Phils to win the series.

Sportsbook.com series odds: Florida +180, Philadelphia -240

StatFox Edge Pick: Phillies


2008 Record – 4-2


 

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