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It took home ice for Pittsburgh to play like Pittsburgh, with the next goal (pun clearly intended) to even up the Stanley Cup series. The Penguins set the tone early, hitting everything in a white and red jersey, used speed to not be stopped at blue line and continually attacked the net. With Game Four on tap, can Pittsburgh realistically expect to win another home game and are they a solid wager at -120 on the money line?
Under YES, this is a good wager; here are the reasons why….
* Sidney Crosby broke Pittsburgh’s scoring drought, by doing the smartest thing a player can to if he’s intent on putting the puck in the net, go to the front of goal. Crosby added a second goal and was able to dominate the action as various points of the game and played much headier on the defensive side.
* Goalie Marc-Andre Fleury has allowed nine goals in three games in the Finals; he received little support in front of him at Detroit and was sharper on home ice. He has been a key why Pittsburgh is 10-0 ATS in home games against excellent power play teams, scoring on 19 percent or more of their chances in the second half of the year this season.
* Evgeni Malkin still hasn’t scored, yet he at least made his presence felt in last game. Penguins coach Michel Therrien said, "I thought it was his best game in the final. Even if he didn't score, I thought he generated a lot, he was skating well. We could see that he was going … to the right direction. So, that's a good sign for him."
* The Igloo might be the oldest building in the NHL, nonetheless, it has been home sweet home for the Penguins who are 9-0 in the playoffs and have won 17 in a row on home ice. Pittsburgh has won last seven games at home against teams with winning road records.
Under NO, this is not a good wager; here are the reasons why….
* Detroit’s Henrik Zetterberg and Pavel Datsyuk have just two points in the Stanley Cup Finals and they are too talented and experienced to have this go on much longer. Though they helped shutdown the Crosby line in Detroit, they haven’t had the offensive impact one might believe.
* Marian Hossa and Jordan Staal have provided little on either end of the ice for Pittsburgh, meaning Crosby is really under a lot of pressure to produce with Malkin not scoring. Detroit has won five of last seven road contests in the postseason.
* The Pittsburgh defense was much more active in Game 3, but still wasn’t able to contain the Red Wings possession passing game, as they managed 34 shots on Fleury. Detroit is 15-3 ATS after three straight games with 33 or more shots on goal this season.
* With coach Mike Babcock, the Red Wings leaders are cool as the other side of the pillow (extremely rare Stuart Scott reference) having shown how, with 14-2 record in the Finals.
Bookmaker.com has the Pens up to -120 on the money line, with Total Ov5. An extra day of rest helps both teams, with Pittsburgh 23-7 and Detroit 21-7 with two days between games. Something will have to give with these two trends juxtaposed against each other. The Penguins are 6-1 after surrendering two or less goals and the Red Wings are 5-1 after scoring two or less goals.
None of the three encounters have gone Over the total and with Pitt a 5-1-1 UNDER when a -150 favorite or less and Detroit 22-11 UNDER in road games revenging a road loss, nothing figures to change.
NBC will have the sports world mostly to itself Saturday night starting at 8 Eastern for Game 4, with the favorite having won the last five meetings between these competitors.
StatFox Power Line – Detroit -125
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