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It was Tony Montana in the movie Scarface who said, “Say hello to my little friend.” While our idea of friend differs from his, betting Arena Football can prove to be a very profitable friend, now that the NBA is winding down to precious few games left in the Finals. This weekend a number of entertaining games are on the docket, highlighted by arguably the two best clubs in the league, with Philadelphia traveling to revenge-minded Dallas. Orlando and Tampa Bay renew their bitter rivalry, while New York and New Orleans continue to battle for playoff positions. No time like the present to pick up a few winners with Arena Football, you could just follow the picks from the StatFox Edge, which have been very good all season. Saturday June 7 Philadelphia at Dallas A number of important elements await Dallas (11-2, 7-6 ATS) as they prepare to face Eastern Division foe, Philadelphia (10-3, 7-6 ATS). Up first is revenge angle for the Desperadoes, who were actually embarrassed on a national cable contest on April 28, a Monday night, 57-28 when both teams were still unbeaten. Dallas has shook off that defeat and has won four of last five to retake first place in the division. With a victory, the Desperadoes can claim third consecutive division title, making them just the third team in AFL history to do so (Albany 1998-00, San Jose 2000-02). One more win also assures, the Dallas franchise becomes the first team in league history to win at least 12 regular season games in three consecutive seasons. Evidently, the raw emotion of the win over the Desperadoes was more than Philadelphia could take, having lost three of four and failing to cover the spread each time. The Soul’s offense still leads the league in points scored at 61.5 a game; however, they have been slowed down in recent home games, totaling 51 and 47 points respectively. Losing to last place Kansas City was a crusher and they are miserable 3-12 ATS off a home loss. Quarterback Clint Dolezel missed action earlier in the year, but it has been all systems go of late with Dallas averaging 63.5 PPG the last four weeks. Experienced Arena football bettors are wise to the ways of Dallas, who despite stellar records, are bettor’s nightmare with 5-20 ATS mark in home games after two or more consecutive straight up wins. The betting action at Sportsbook.com has been wild, with Dallas moving from one-point underdog to one-point favorite. The Total also has been one-sided, opening at 104, up to present 108. With the Desperadoes 0-8 ATS in home games off two consecutive road wins and Philly 0-6 ATS off an upset loss as a home favorite over the last three seasons, the total might be the best course of action. StatFox Power Line – Dallas by 4 StatFox Edge – Under
New Orleans at New York
New Orleans ended a three game losing streak and climbed back into a first place tie with Georgia in the Southern Division, with best offensive performance of the season. The VooDoo (8-5 SU & ATS) put a hex on Columbus defense, totaling 83 points in a wild shootout. QB Danny Wimprine might have been headed to the bench, but spearheaded huge effort. The New Orleans defense did not have best game in allowing 61 points, yet are still third in points allowed at 49.2 PG. The VooDoo is only 1-8 ATS in road games against National Conference opponents over the last two seasons. New York (7-6, 7-5-1 ATS) also got back on the winning track after a pair of losses, winning at Colorado 73-65 as 1.5-point favorites. QB Aaron Garcia is a wily veteran and is one of only two signal callers to call his own plays. This season he has 67 touchdowns against just seven interceptions and is the reason why the Dragons have been competitive in rugged division. New York is 2-11 ATS in home games against Southern Division opponents. New York is a 1.5-point favorite with total 102.5 and is in a must win situation, having to face Dallas and Philadelphia the next two weeks chasing playoff dreams. This is the first ever meeting between these teams in the Big Apple, where the Dragons are 5-1 ATS this year.
StatFox Power Line – New Orleans by 1
StatFox Edge – New York covers Orlando at Tampa Bay For those not as familiar with Arena Football, this is one of the league’s classic rivalries, known as “The War on I-4”. Orlando (8-6, 6-7-1 ATS) had a languid 0-2 start, won six a row and seven of eight to take over first place in the Southern Division. Since then they have lost three of four, to fall into third place and have covered one of last six outings. The offense has turned the ball over 13 times the last four weeks leading to struggles. The Predators head south with 7-0 ATS record after a loss by 10 or less points. Tampa Bay (6-7 SU & ATS) has to win out just to have a chance for the playoffs and even if they fail to do so, sweeping heated rival can at least be comforting. The Storm have played nearly everyone close, with nine of 13 games decided by eight points or less, including one point heart-breaker (56-55) to Georgia last week. Tampa Bay has shown a strong capacity to rebound off a tough loss with 10-2 ATS mark in home games off a close defeat by 10 or less to a division rival. These two fierce combatants have met 35 times, with Orlando holding slim 18-17 edge. Tampa Bay is 8-7 and 8-6-1 ATS at home since 1996, though Orlando has swept the last two on Florida’s west coast. Take note Orlando is 13-2 ATS revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a home favorite. StatFox Power Line – Tampa Bay by 8 StatFox Edge – Orlando covers
Four other AFL games are on the weekend schedule for Week 15, give it try, you might just like it.
Season Record - 34-19-2 (64.1 percent)
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