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The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

Let’s Talk NFL Football
By: Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 6/12/2008  at  8:28:00 PM
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With the passing game more prevalent than ever in the NFL, it is becoming increasingly more important teams have cornerbacks and safeties that can cover wide receivers in a variety of formations, as the last line of defense. As the Super Bowl champion New York Giants proved, rushing the passer is always the best medicine to keep a defense healthy, however, no matter how good any team’s pass rush is, they will not always be able to create pressure on opposing quarterbacks, placing the responsibility on the corners and the safeties to take on the onslaught.

The Oakland Raiders are Ov6 (-135) at Sportsbook.com in wagering for season wins in 2008, after winning a grand total of 10 games the last three years. What should give bettors hope of surpassing that total is having the best tandem of cornerbacks in the NFL, with Nnamdi Asomugha and newly acquired DeAngelo Hall. Asomugha only had one interception last year, largely due the fact teams didn’t even bother to throw to his side of the field, but with the super aggressive Hall, opponents are going to have to make a choice. It won’t fun for receivers trying to possibly exploit the Raiders safeties, with former Giant Gibril Wilson, a big hitting strong safety.  Youngster Mike Huff is allowed to move to more natural free safety spot. If Oakland’s offense shows improvement for coach Lane Kiffen, .500 is not out of the question, if the front office doesn’t create more turmoil, as they often do.

The regular season matchups between Oakland and San Diego will delight every defensive backfield coach in the country. CB Antonio Cromartie proved he is a rising star in the league. He has long arms, big hands and exceptional closing speed to make plays or bat away passes. His running mate is Quentin Jammer, who doesn’t intercept many passes, but is a sticky cover guy. For teams that want to go after San Diego in the nickel, say hello to top pick Antoine Cason. Eric Weddle will be a new starter at safety and is a superior all-around athlete and Clinton Hart plays the run with reckless abandon. With what this contingent can do, the Ov10.5 (-150) might be less of a gamble.

Philadelphia for seasons has been able to stifle opposing offenses with tight cover schemes and bone-crushing hits from its secondary. After a couple of off seasons from this group due to injuries, the Eagles might be ready to soar once again. Philadelphia picked up a plum DB in Asante Samuel, one of the five best players at his position. He’ll be a good match with ballhawk Lito Shepard. For those thinking about the Eagles at Ov.8.5, a return to health of Brian Dawkins would go a long way in making this a more relaxing wager. S Quinton Mikell is above average in the passing game and excellent versus the run.

Remember just a few years ago when if Indianapolis didn’t hurry the quarterback, their mildly vanilla defensive backfield schemes could be picked apart? Those days are in the rearview mirror, with the corner combo of Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson. Both have good size (6’0, 195) and are ideally suited to play in Tony Dungy’s defense. Backing them up is the best safety in football, Bob Sanders. The diminutive former Iowa Hawkeye is the ultimate enforcer, throwing around his body to make plays. Playing in the rugged AFC South makes the total of 11 wins a tough call either way, but should the Colts fall short, it won’t be because of defensive backfield.

The Miami Dolphins were hands-down the worst team in football last season with a 1-15 record. The atmosphere in South Florida is changing with Bill Parcells running the show. This is a team with few talented players and nothing is more glaring than in the defensive backfield. In grading the corners and safeties separately, the only team even close to being this awful is New Orleans. Head coach Tony Sparano has expressed faith in corner Will Allen, yet he has to swallow hard with the thought of lining up Travis Daniels or Andre Goodman on the other side. Yeremiah Bell is an injury-prone safety and the rest of the group is only known to team officials and the player’s parents. Given the choice of Over/Under 5.5 on the Dolphins based on secondary play, only one wager makes sense.

 2008 StatFox Edge Football Annual will be available online starting July 4 and hit the newstands starting July7.

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