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Betting Arena Football Week 16
By: Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 6/12/2008  at  6:59:00 PM
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With just two weeks left in the Arena Football League regular season, teams are jockeying for position. The biggest game of the week involves New Orleans and Orlando is a real battle to win playoff berths. Off last week’s big game, Dallas and Philadelphia will try to regain composure and finish the year strong. A battle of first place teams takes place in Atlanta, when Chicago visits a red-hot Georgia squad. Make sure to check out the FREE Foxsheet for this encounter. Review the picks from the StatFox Edge staff, which have been very profitable all season.

Friday June 13

New Orleans at Orlando

Two Southern Division teams trying desperately to hang on and make the playoffs will meet in “the Jungle.” New Orleans (8-6 SU &ATS) has dropped four of last five and it’s been a combination of factors for the VooDoo’s failures. Quarterback Danny Wimprine has been up and down, the defense plays well in spots, and still they just have not been able to put it together. New Orleans had better do so quickly or they will fall to 1-10 ATS in road games against conference opponents over the last two seasons.

Orlando’s fallen apart at crunch time, a rare sight for a Jay Gruden coached team. The Predators (8-7, 6-8-1 ATS) have lost three in a row and five of seven, committing 23 turnovers in this stretch. Reports out of Orlando have the coach and QB Shane Stafford not the same page, creating morale problems for team chasing the playoffs. The Predators defense will have to get it together, since they are 9-22 ATS when they allow 50 to 56 points a game.

Sportsbook.com has Orlando as 3.5-point home favorites with Total of 108. New Orleans won a one-point squeaker back in March; however the Preds are 8-0 ATS revenging a close loss vs opponent by six or less points. Orlando is one of two teams that have not had a bye, meaning this is their last regular season contest and need a win to keep string of 17 consecutive playoff appearances alive.

StatFox Power Line – New Orleans by 4

StatFox Edge – Under

Saturday June 14

Chicago at Georgia

Chicago (10-4, 7-7 ATS) suffered a surprising stumble last week at Cleveland 66-45, easily their worst defeat of the season. The Rush can still wrap home field advantage throughout the playoffs in the American Conference with a win or San Jose loss. Though Chicago has won six of eight, they have lost three straight against the spread and will take on the hottest team in Arena Football.

The Georgia Force (9-5, 7-7 ATS) have caught fire just at the right time, with six straight wins and five covers. The six consecutive wins is a franchise best during the regular season, as QB Chris Greisen has the offense clicking, now up to third in scoring at 58.2 PPG. Georgia can nab the Southern Division with a win or New Orleans loss and is 9-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last two years.

Chicago is a 2.5-point road underdog and does not want to lose earlier momentum before the playoffs with consecutive defeats. With total at 107.5, the Rush is still the league’s best defensive squad and is 17-6 UNDER off an upset loss as a favorite, winning by 6.2 PPG. Click here for FREE Foxsheet for this contest.

StatFox Power Line – Georgia by 7

StatFox Edge – Chicago covers

New York at Dallas

It was not a surprise Dallas (11-3, 7-7 ATS) didn’t cover against Philadelphia, just the fact they were swept this season by them. The Desperadoes defense let them down, as Philly carved them up for 71 points. Dallas has to win last two contests and hope Philadelphia falls to win Eastern Division. Betting on the Desperadoes to cover the spread at home is foolish, since they are 16-34 ATS.

New York (8-6, 8-5-1 ATS) passed their first test in trying to secure postseason spot with win over New Orleans. On the docket left are Dallas and Philadelphia, presenting head coach Weyland Harding and his club with quite a challenge. The Desperadoes average 53.2 PPG and coach Harding’s Dragons are 11-2 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 52 or more points a game.

Dallas is a 7.5-point home favorite, having beaten New York five times in a row, leading the all-time series 8-3. Keep a close eye on the 107 point total, since teams like the Dragons, after going over the total by 35 or more points in their last five games and have a winning percentage between 51and 60 percent, have Played UNDER 26 of 29 times, when the total is at or above the century mark.

StatFox Power Line – Dallas by 8

StatFox Edge – UNDER

Cleveland at Philadelphia

Philadelphia (11-3, 8-6 ATS) will attempt to not fall into the same trap that befell them the last time they beat Dallas. After beating the Desperadoes in late April, the Soul lost three of four, falling out of first place in the division. This time QB Matt D’Orazio will have benefit of playing at home, where they are 6-1 and 4-3 ATS. The Philly front office deserves a ton of credit for picking up D’Orazio, as regular starter Tony Graziani just can’t stay healthy. The former Chicago starter will try to direct Soul offense that is 13-4 ATS they gain seven or more total yards per play.

In Philadelphia’s path, is a Cleveland (8-6, 7-5-2 ATS) club that refuses to quit. The Gladiators were impressive in dismantling Chicago last week and presently own tiebreakers for playoffs if they keep winning. Cleveland is able to utilize a rare commodity in the AFL, they run the ball efficiently when holding a lead. They have averaged nearly 12 rush attempts when leading, to close out opponents.

Philly is a 9.5-point fave with total 116 and the Soul is 2-9 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 110 over the last two seasons.

StatFox Power Line – Tampa Bay by 8

StatFox Edge – Cleveland covers

 

Season Record - 36-20-3 (64.2 percent)

 

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