The AFL Playoffs have arrived and a pair of Eastern Division rivals will start the festivities. Dallas (12-4, 7-9 ATS) doesn’t come in playing its best football with 3-3 record the last six games, covering the spread just twice. Maybe the change of pace of playing in first round will help the Desperadoes, who have had a bye the last two years winning the division and were beaten in first playoff contest.

This has been an unusual season for Dallas, as the offense has sputtered frequently, ending up only 11th in points scored per game at 53.8. Quarterback Clint Dolezel has been injured and played both great and not so great this season. He’s misread more coverage’s this season then in the past and has not always been in-sync with receivers. Dolezel will gladly welcome back receiver Will Pettis, who missed a couple of contests due to a concussion. He’s a big part of the Desperadoes offense. Sportsbook.com has Dallas as 7.5-point favorites with total of 103. If Dolezel and Pettis click immediately no reason Dallas can’t improve to 13-4 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

New York (8-8, 9-6-1 ATS) had a challenging close to the season, having to face Dallas and Philadelphia, losing both times. It’s a new beginning for the Dragons and signal caller Aaron Garcia. Like Dolezel, Garcia has taken big hits and missed playing time and the veteran QB will have to seek other wide receiver help for an offense that scores the fewest points of the remaining teams in the postseason. Top pass catcher Jason Willis is gone with dislocated ankle; meaning Kevin Swayne, Chris Anthony and rookie Terry Moss have to step up. The best thing going for New York backers is the Dragons are 4-1 ATS against winning teams this season.

Both these National Conference squads are known for defense. Dallas was second in points allowed (49.9) and New York (51.2) registered fourth in AFL play this season. This leads to these two playing Under in last four meetings.

The Dragons lost two, 2-point encounters to the Desperadoes, who are notoriously terrible home favorites, with 16-35 ATS record over the last decade plus. Additionally, Dallas has not faired well in home games after playing their last game on the road, with 3-11 ATS mark.

The start will be critical for both teams in pressure-packed situation. Dallas recent playoff history would suggest they would want to come out flying and pounce on New York and let defense control game after building lead. If the Dragons can match points, the Desperadoes players might start looking at one another and wondering if they lack the gumption to get over the hump.

Smart bettors could be wise to follow the Arena Football system that states to Play Under, in the first round of games. With these two teams are so familiar with one another and not having great offenses, the 36-12 ATS record delivering 75 percent winners’ holds value.

ESPN coverage starts at 7:30 Eastern.

StatFox Power Line – Dallas by 10

StatFox Edge – Under

Season Record - 41-22-3 (65 percent)