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Top NFL Pre- & Post Bye Week Trends – Part 1
By: Steve Makinen - StatFox
Published: 10/2/2008  at  8:05:00 PM
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The NFL “open dates” started this past weekend and if you haven’t ever studied the patterns that can perform regarding teams’ performances in and out of the bye week, this article will open your eyes. Hopefully it will expand your bankroll as well, as over the course of the next two weeks, I will unveil 30 different powerful ATS or Over-Under trends that you can apply over the next five weeks of the NFL season. If these distinctive trends hold for yet another season, we’ll all be a lot richer by Thanksgiving.

I’ve decided to break this piece into two weeks to give you more time to digest the information. Quite frankly, I was amazed at the trends I discovered in looking back at past bye week performances of franchises. In fact, there were so many trends with lesser sample sizes, yet still very successful, that I had to leave out of this piece for fear of overload. Still, with 30 historically successful trends headed your way over the course of the next two weeks, this, nor next week’s continuation, are two articles you’re going to want to hang on to.

This first set of trends will cover games this Sunday, October 5th, through Sunday, October 19th. The follow-up will cover games in the three weekends following.

I’ve also included a handy chart illustrating every team’s pre- and post-bye week record since 1992. Enjoy the information, and good luck.

Week 5: Sunday, October 5th

  • Play: OVER - Indianapolis at Houston
    Reason...Prior to last year's 29-7 win at Jacksonville, Indianapolis had gone OVER in eight straight post-bye week games. The Colts are scoring 33.7 PPG on their own in that span.

  • Play: ARIZONA SU & ATS vs. Buffalo
    Reason...The Bills are on the longest pre-bye week losing streak, dropping nine straight games, while going 2-6-1 ATS.

  • Play: KANSAS CITY ATS at Carolina
    Reason...Since 2001, the Chiefs have proven a good bet both before and after the bye week, going 10-4 ATS combined (5-2 ATS each) in those scenarios.

  • Play: TENNESSEE ATS at Baltimore
    Reason...Since '02, in games surrounding the bye week, Jeff Fisher's Titans are a combined 9-2-1 ATS.

    Week 6: Sunday, October 12th

  • Play: ATLANTA SU & ATS vs. Chicago
    Reason...The Falcons have been a solid play prior to the open date, going 5-3 SU & 7-1 ATS in L8.

  • Play: DALLAS ATS at Arizona
    Reason...The Cardinals have lost seven of their L9 games ATS prior to the bye week.

  • Play: OVER – Dallas at Arizona
    Reason...Arizona is 5-1-1 OVER in its L7 games heading into the bye week.

  • Play: SAN FRANCISCO SU & ATS vs. Philadelphia
    Reason...Since Andy Reid took over in 2000, the Eagles are just 2-7 SU & 1-7-1 ATS in pre-bye week games.

  • Play: UNDER – Cincinnati at NY Jets
    Reason...The Jets are on an incredible run of 11-1 UNDER in the L12 coming out of the bye. Defensively, the Jets are allowing just 12.7 PPG in these 12 contests, and half the opponents were held to less than 10 points.

  • Play: NY JETS ATS vs. Cincinnati
    Reason...The Jets have won their L6 post-open date games ATS.

    Week 7: Sunday, October 19th

  • Play: BUFFALO ATS vs. San Diego
    Reason...Including three straight wins, the Bills are 4-3 SU & 5-1-1 ATS in post-bye week games since '01.

  • Play: UNDER – San Diego at Buffalo
    Reason...The UNDER is also 6-1 in the L7 Bills’ post bye-week games.

  • Play: MINNESOTA ATS at Chicago
    Reason...The Bears have struggled with motivation in the game before the bye week, going 1-8 SU & ATS in the last nine years.

  • Play: OVER - Minnesota at Chicago
    Reason...Totals have been the wager of choice for savvy bettors in pre- & post bye week Minnesota games. Since '98, the OVER is 17-5 in those contests.

  • Play: HOUSTON ATS vs. Detroit
    Reason...The Texans own a winning mark of 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in pre-open date games since returning to the NFL in 2002, far better than their overall record.

     
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