Welcome: Login to StatFox |  Register |  Login to FoxSheets
StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

Game Four Wagering Drama in Boston
By: Doug Upstone - StatFox
Published: 10/6/2008  at  1:11:00 PM
  Print This Article    

The team with the best road record in the major leagues beat the team with the second best road record in all of baseball and has to do it again tonight to force a fifth and deciding game. The Los Angeles Angels overcame a silly misplay in the second inning, which allowed three Boston runs to score and went on to win 5-4 in extra innings. The Angels had any number of points in which they could have lost in Game 3, but showed what they were made of in finding a way to win.

Game 4 will be a pitching rematch of the opener with John Lackey (12-6, 3.71) taking Jon Lester (17-6, 3.11). Lester was dominating in the series opener, allowing one unearned run over seven innings. He struck out seven Halos hitters, walking only one and expertly worked both sides of the plate. The left-hander has won seven of his last nine decisions and hasn't given up an earned run in either of his last two postseason starts, spanning 12 2/3 innings dating back to last year. Boston and Lester are 22-6 against the money line in the second half of the season over the last two seasons.

Lackey made one crucial mistake to Jason Bay, who took him over the wall. Lackey in the past has been a big game pitcher, but has struggled of late losing four of his last five decisions. Sportsbook.com has the Angels as +125 road underdogs, which has brought out the best in Lackey and his teammates with a 9-1 record as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last two seasons.

Though a bit more pressure on Boston after the loss, they still are 31-11 as a home favorite of -125 to -175 this season. Lester and the BoSox are 13-1 as a home favorite of -110 or higher and with the total at Un8.5, they are a perfect 10-0 against the money line at home when the total is 8.5 to 10 this season.

Los Angeles has to hope all the hits start leading to more runs, with a total of 48 base-knocks in the last four games. The Angels are 31-13 as an underdog of +100 or higher in 2008 and 32-13 on the road when the total is 8.5 to10 this season.

First pitch is scheduled for 8:35 Eastern on TBS with Red Sox the 9-18 revenging a one run loss to opponent this season.
 

StatFox Power Line – Boston -129
SBR: Over 750 Rated Sportsbooks
Tired of Losing? Get a Free 30 day trial.
8 Free Picks & Analysis from Sports Advisors
Top Consensus Picks ThePlatinumSheet.com

FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.

E-mail:   
Manage Subscriptions | Newsletter Archive