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The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

FoxSheets MLB Key Betting Systems Update
By: Steve Makinen - StatFox
Published: 6/3/2009  at  7:08:00 PM
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In the continuing series of tracking the key data on the FoxSheets, I’m here to reveal the Top 20 systems that are generating profits in 2009. The goal of this exercise is to answer the age-old question from members …what wins most on the FoxSheets? These systems cover the entire season from opening day through June 2nd, and the highlight of this release is the meteoric rise of success of angles featuring teams with the better Bullpen WHIP statistic. If you’re surprised by this, it makes one of us, as anyone who has followed my own baseball handicapping articles on StatFox knows my affection for that most important stat. With so many games now decided in the late innings, the effectiveness of a team’s bullpen means everything.

I’ve shortened this piece a bit from the original release of last month, but you can still access that article by clicking here.

I would like to address a couple of the many questions I have received since the original article came out however. First, the Power Rating & Game Estimator edges DO NOT require a Green Star, they simply give the edge to the team expected to win. This is denoted by either a negative money line on the Power Rating or a higher score on the Game Estimator. Secondly, I am tracking over 180 different angles including home, road, over, and under records, however, the 20 I have picked are all of the ANY variety to keep the analysis simple. If you’re interested, in most cases, the HOME and UNDER sides of the argument have produced better results.

If you’d like to benefit from these simple but effective betting systems using the sports handicapping world’s most sophisticated product, simply go to www.FoxSheets.com and hit the JOIN NOW button.

MLB33 ~ Play on: ANY TOTAL - Multiple 4* Super Situations (opp <2)
'09 Record to Date: 13-7 (65.0%, +5.35 units)
R.O.I: 26.8% - $100/unit Return: $535
Explanation: Games that have had more than one StatFox Super Situation of four stars or better on either side of the total have continued to produce promising results.

MLB164 ~ Play on: ANY Underdog  - Upset System - Estimator & Power Ratings Project Tie or Outright Upset
'09 Record to Date: 42-35 (54.5%, +11.95 units)
R.O.I: 15.5% - $100/unit Return: $1195
Explanation: If both the StatFox Game Estimator and the Power Rating Line call for an underdog to either tie or pull an outright upset, 54.5% of the time that has produced a winner, good for a 15.5% ROI, down a bit from the April numbers, but still going strong.

MLB150 ~ Play on: ANY TEAM - Combination-Key Edges 4 or more PLUS SP ERA Edge
'09 Record to Date: 67-41 (62.0%, +11.2 units)
R.O.I: 10.4% - $100/unit Return: $1120
Explanation: This system combines a scenario in which five key areas on the FoxSheets are analyzed: Super Situation Stars, Game Estimator Winner, Power Line Winner, Total Trend Stars, and Composite Stars. If any team has an edge in four or more of those key areas plus the starting pitcher with a better ERA, the return thus far has been sizeable. The system had a down month of May however, as oddsmakers have made their usual adjustments to account for starting pitcher performance.

MLB170 ~ Play on: ANY TOTAL  - Combination-More Super Situation Stars and Estimator Total
'09 Record to Date: 114-90 (55.9%, +17 units)
R.O.I: 8.3% - $100/unit Return: $1700
Explanation: This is a new system from the April release and has generated a strong return this season due to the success of both the Estimator and Situations and how they have projected totals. The combination of the two has produced great results in the season's first two months.

MLB69 ~ Play on: ANY TEAM  - Matchup Trends Side at least 10*
'09 Record to Date: 93-77 (54.7%, +14.05 units)
R.O.I: 8.3% - $100/unit Return: $1405
Explanation: Teams with a total of at least 10* ratings on the Matchup Trends section, indicating a tean-to-team matchup edge, have continued to do very well to start 2009.

MLB30 ~ Play on: ANY TEAM  - More 4* Super Situations
'09 Record to Date: 37-29 (56.1%, +5.1 units)
R.O.I: 7.7% - $100/unit Return: $510
Explanation: This is a system that bettors have come to rely on for many years in the FoxSheets, and it continues to produce in 2009. Simply back the team with more Super Situations of 4* or above. These angles can often be found at the top of the daily POWER SEARCHES list.

MLB158 ~ Play on: Power Rating - Conflicts - Estimator conflicts with Power Rating
'09 Record to Date: 67-64 (51.1%, +9.8 units)
R.O.I: 7.5% - $100/unit Return: $980
Explanation: It happens only about twice a night on average, but the Game Estimator and Power Rating Lines will conflict on occasion. One will have Team A winning, the other will have Team B. Early results have shown the Power Rating Line to be trusted more.

MLB173 ~ Play on: ANY TEAM  - Combination-Power Rating Edge PLUS BP WHIP Edge
'09 Record to Date: 259-183 (58.6%, +24.35 units)
R.O.I: 5.5% - $100/unit Return: $2435
Explanation: With the meteroic rise of success backing teams with better Bullpen WHIP statistics, several combination systems using that stat edge in conjunction with key FoxSheets info edges have produced good returns. This simple system using the StatFox Power Ratings is the best of them.

MLB156 ~ Play on: ANY TEAM  - Combination-More Composite Stars & Better Bullpen WHIP
'09 Record to Date: 221-189 (53.9%, +21.5 units)
R.O.I: 5.2% - $100/unit Return: $2150
Explanation: This is another system that combines the Bullpen WHIP edge with a FoxSheets info edge. This time it’s the Composite Stars angle. Find a team that enjoys the advantage in both, and watch your profits soar.

MLB63 ~ Play on: ANY Dog - Power Rating Straight Up "UPSET" Winner
'09 Record to Date: 62-63 (49.6%, +6.4 units)
R.O.I: 5.1% - $100/unit Return: $640
Explanation: The StatFox Power Ratings have had a strong season to date, particularly when projecting an upset. The record of this system is just 1-game below .500 battling underdog odds.

MLB138 ~ Play on: ANY TEAM  - Key Edges 4 or more (SS, Est, PwrLine, Trends, Comp Stars)
'09 Record to Date: 157-113 (58.1%, +12.2 units)
R.O.I: 4.5% - $100/unit Return: $1220
Explanation: This is our Key Edges system without anything else added in. Look for teams that enjoy the edge in at least four of our key FoxSheets’ categories, Super Situation Stars, Estimator projected winner, Power Line winner, Total Trend Stars edge, and Composite Stars edge. Note that for the Estimator and Power Line, the team given the edge is the one simply favored to win. The projected line does not have to exceed the actual money line. The ROI is down a bit from April but still producing positive yields.

MLB167 ~ Play on: ANY TEAM  - Combination-Key Edges 4 or more PLUS BP WHIP Edge
'09 Record to Date: 61-43 (58.7%, +3.9 units)
R.O.I: 3.8% - $100/unit Return: $390
Explanation: This is our third new system that uses the Bullpen WHIP edge. With a better Bullpen WHIP and the 4 Key Edges we seek, teams have won 58.7% of games in the season's first two months.

MLB90 ~ Play on: ANY TEAM  - Manager Trends Side Unopposed
'09 Record to Date: 65-60 (52.0%, +2.75 units)
R.O.I: 2.2% - $100/unit Return: $275
Explanation: The Manager Trends have shown some promise early on, particularly when one team boasts one or more total star ratings in this category and the other has none.

MLB21 ~ Play on: ANY TOTAL - More Super Situations Stars
'09 Record to Date: 256-223 (53.4%, +10.5 units)
R.O.I: 2.2% - $100/unit Return: $1050
Explanation: Very simple system, yet able to produce a return of over a "dime" in the first two months. You can usually pick up 7 or more of these plays on a given night by doing nothing more than counting the star ratings of the Super Situations favoring either the OVER or the UNDER on a given total.

MLB160 ~ Play on: Total Trend Stars - Conflicts - Super Situations conflict with Total Trend Stars
'09 Record to Date: 182-163 (52.8%, +5.85 units)
R.O.I: 1.7% - $100/unit Return: $585
Explanation: So far, the trends have proven more effective than the Super Situations, at least when considering total star ratings. However, don’t dismiss the higher rated Super Situations you’ll find each night on the Power Searches, as those have continued to fare well too.

MLB12 ~ Play on: ANY TEAM - At least 25* Super Situations (opp <25)
'09 Record to Date: 92-95 (49.2%, +2.55 units)
R.O.I: 1.4% - $100/unit Return: $255
Explanation: By the record of this system (3-games under .500), it's obvious that following this system will give regularly give you underdogs on your betting tickets. Baseball betting logic proves that's not such a bad strategy. Expect this system to continue to do well over the course of the 2009 season.

MLB45 ~ Play on: ANY TEAM  - Estimator Score >=5.5 Runs (Unopposed)
'09 Record to Date: 141-103 (57.8%, +1.9 units)
R.O.I: 0.8% - $100/unit Return: $190
Explanation: This is a new system to our list and it simply says to back teams that the StatFox Game Estimator says will score 5.5 runs or more in a game, assuming the other team does not reach that benchmark.

MLB27 ~ Play on: ANY TOTAL - At least 15* Super Situations (opp <15)
'09 Record to Date: 45-39 (53.6%, +0.4 units)
R.O.I: 0.5% - $100/unit Return: $40
Explanation: Most of the various angles studied regarding the Super Situations on Totals have shown profits, including backing those sides of the total that boast 15 or more star ratings in a given game.

MLB159 ~ Play on: Total Trend Stars - Conflicts - Estimator conflicts with Total Trend Stars
'09 Record to Date: 150-177 (45.9%, +0.62 units)
R.O.I: 0.2% - $100/unit Return: $62
Explanation: When the Game Estimator winner is not the same team with more Total Trend Stars, the Estimator is winning more games but losing money. In many cases, the team with the Total Trends Stars edge has more value because it is the underdog.

MLB147 ~ Play on: ANY TEAM - Trend Sweep (Matchup, Situational, Manager)
'09 Record to Date: 202-194 (51.0%, +0.6 units)
R.O.I: 0.2% - $100/unit Return: $60
Explanation: The Trend Sweep System is on the verge of falling off our list, and it goes to show as in most cases, oddsmakers are adjusting to the teams' vast matchup and situational advantages with pricier lines. We'll continue to follow this however.

 

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