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The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

Bullpens separating MLB good from bad
By: Steve Makinen - StatFox
Published: 6/30/2009  at  9:00:00 AM
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With the frequency of wins and losses changing hands in the late innings at a seemingly all-time high in Major League Baseball, it’s more important than ever for a manager to have a solid bullpen to turn to. In that same breath, it’s also crucial for the baseball bettor to know which bullpens are firing on all cylinders and which ones are not. Unfortunately, on a daily basis this is hard to gauge, but as is the case with most statistical observation, the cream tends to rise to the top over the long haul, and vice versa. So which bullpens are the best in 2009, and which stats regarding relief pitching have meant the most in the eyes of baseball bettors? Take a look at the numbers three months into the season.

From the chart below, it’s fairly easy to see that the Washington Nationals have a major weak spot in relief pitching. Ranking dead last in all three of our key stat categories, their 22-51 won-lost mark is easily explainable. Likewise, the Indians, Cubs, and D-backs have endured similar struggles to get consistent results out of their pens. Their success, or should we say, lack thereof, is reflective of this, and bettors have suffered most when entrusting their dollars to them. Of course, for every rule there is an exception, and in this case, it is the LA Angels, who despite ranking 29, 29, & 14 in our three stats, are a healthy 9-games over .500 and +9.9 money line units to the good.

On the other side of the equation you’ll find teams like Boston, Milwaukee, and Cincinnati, each leaders in respective stat categories, and each producing profits for bettors in 2009. Boston leads the league in ERA, Milwaukee leads in WHIP, and Cincinnati has converted the greatest percentage of its save opportunities. The Dodgers, Rays, and Cardinals have also gotten solid production from their relief pitching. Of these six teams, only the Cardinals are negative money line units, but they are obviously doing something right, sitting in a first place tie atop the N.L. Central Division.

The following chart details all 30 teams in Major League Baseball, along with their won-lost mark, betting units won or lost, plus their bullpen stats & league ranks in ERA, WHIP, and Save Percentage.

Since eight teams qualify for the postseason each year, I decided to combine the records for the Top 8 & Bottom 8 teams in each of the categories analyzed to determine if one stat meant more than the other in terms of wins and losses, and of course for our major purpose, betting units won. Here are those combined figures:

Top 8 Bullpens in ERA: 329-271, .548 (+40.4 units)
Bottom 8 Bullpen in ERA: 272-326, .455 (-54.2 units)

Top 8 Bullpens in WHIP: 338-268, .558 (+29.9 units)
Bottom 8 Bullpens in WHIP: 272-326, .455 (-66.4 units)

Top 8 Bullpens in Save %: 313-268, .522 (+10.8 units)
Bottom 8 Bullpens in Save %: 274-324, .458 (-65.5 units)

The numbers are interesting in that the biggest separation in positive and negative money line units comes when analyzing the WHIP numbers. The difference there is 96.3 unit swing, compared to 94.6 for the ERA, and 76.3 for the Save %. The Top 8 teams in WHIP also boast the best won-lost record of any of our categories. However, the group of teams that have proven most successful for bettors have been those with the best Bullpen ERA’s. Those eight teams have produced over 40 units of profit.

Still, the best MLB betting strategy to employ using these findings is to fade the teams with the worst Bullpen WHIP statistics. Those clubs have lost an astounding 66.4 units for their backers in ’09 already.

Be sure to study the chart and tag those teams with the best and worst bullpens. Oh, and by the way, watch for another FoxSheets Baseball Systems update in the next few days to include June results. Follow those systems while keeping in mind these key bullpen numbers in the next month or two and watch your profits grow.

 

 

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