Sometimes a hunch can really amount to something. In studying some of the baseball numbers this week, it dawned on me that something was amiss. It seemed as if there was way more lower scoring games than usual, so I dug into the numbers and looked for answers. As it turns out, my hunch was correct, as according to the StatFox Database, the month of June 2009 will go down on record as the lowest scoring regular season month in baseball since at least 1997. Not coincidentally, June also produced the most UNDER results on total bets in that span as well. Does it mean anything going forward?

The June games in 2009 produced on average just 8.75 runs per game. The next closest month dating back to ’97 was last year’s month of May, which averaged 8.94 RPG. Only one other month, September 2005 (8.98) averaged less than 9.0 RPG. In fact, comparatively, there were ten months that produced over 10.0 RPG, the benchmark for the highest scoring contests.

In all, there were 217 UNDER’s, 163 OVER’s, and 19 Pushes, or a 57.1% UNDER percentage. Prior to that, in the last 13 years, the next most frequent UNDER month was May 2005, which produced 55.5%.  None of the other 75 regular season months since then had an UNDER percentage more than 55%. That goes to show how irregular of an occurrence we have all witnessed.

All of this is great for talk around the water cooler, or on Baseball Tonight, but what does it mean for bettors going forward? Is there anything suggest that the pattern might shift in July? Should we start unloading on OVER’s at the betting window? According to StatFox Staff members Dave & Jeff, you would think so, as for both of them, their first reaction to my finding was “Start betting OVER’s”. Here’s a quick look at what happened in the follow up month of the Top 10 lowest scoring months and Top 10 most frequent UNDER months:

Top 10 Lowest Scoring Months Since ’97, along with the Follow up month:
1. June 2009 (8.75 RPG), O-U-T: 163-217-19, 42.9%
Follow up month: July 2009 ???
2. May 2008 (8.94 RPG), O-U-T: 182-219-21, 45.4%
Follow up month: June 2008 (9.08 RPG), O-U-T: 179-202-23, 47.0%
3. September 2005 (8.98 RPG), O-U-T: 183-211-19, 46.4%
Follow up month: April 2006 (9.86 RPG), O-U-T: 192-155-19, 55.3%
4. April 2008 (9.05 RPG), O-U-T: 180-209-14, 46.3%
Follow up month: May 2008 (8.94 RPG), O-U-T: 182-219-21, 45.4%
5. May 2002 (9.07 RPG), O-U-T: 184-216-17, 46.0%
Follow up month: June 2002 (9.17 RPG), O-U-T: 186-195-19, 48.8%
6. April 2007 (9.08 RPG), O-U-T: 167-178-25, 48.4%
Follow up month: May 2007 (9.3 RPG), O-U-T: 192-207-22, 48.1%
7. June 2008 (9.08 RPG), O-U-T: 179-202-23, 47.0%
Follow up month: July 2008 (9.81 RPG), O-U-T: 203-166-11, 55.0%
8. May 2005 (9.12 RPG), O-U-T: 173-216-26, 44.5%
Follow up month: June 2005 (9.54 RPG), O-U-T: 184-188-27, 49.5%
9. April 2005 (9.14 RPG), O-U-T: 159-178-13, 47.2%
Follow up month: May 2005 (9.12 RPG), O-U-T: 173-216-26, 44.5%
10. August 2002 (9.16 RPG), O-U-T: 201-205-20, 49.5%
Follow up month: September 2002 (9.21 RPG), O-U-T: 188-195-19, 49.1%

While the scoring went up slightly in the follow up months, as you can see, Jeff & Dave were right only two of the nine months, in terms of blindly playing the OVER, and one of those months was a completely different season.

Now let’s take a look at this same analysis from an UNDER percentage rankings standpoint:

Top 10 Most Frequent UNDER Months Since ’97, along with the follow up month:
1. June 2009 (8.75 RPG), O-U-T: 163-217-19, 42.9%
Follow up month: July 2009 ???
2. May 2005 (9.12 RPG), O-U-T: 173-216-26, 44.5%
Follow up month: June 2005 (9.54 RPG), O-U-T: 184-188-27, 49.5%
3. July 2001 (9.34 RPG), O-U-T: 169-205-23, 45.2%
Follow up month: August 2001 (9.48 RPG), O-U-T: 188-214-26, 46.8%
4. May 2008 (8.94 RPG), O-U-T: 182-219-21, 45.4%
Follow up month: June 2008 (9.08 RPG), O-U-T: 179-202-23, 47.0%
5. August 2006 (9.36 RPG), O-U-T: 184-217-24, 45.9%
Follow up month: September 2006 (9.54 RPG), O-U-T: 186-201-28, 48.1%
6. May 2002 (9.07 RPG), O-U-T: 184-216-17, 46.0%
Follow up month: June 2002 (9.17 RPG), O-U-T: 186-195-19, 48.8%
7. May 2009 (9.31 RPG), O-U-T: 190-223-15, 46.0%
Follow up month: June 2009 (8.75 RPG), O-U-T: 163-217-19, 42.9%
8. September 1998 (9.28 RPG), O-U-T: 164-192-22, 46.1%
Follow up month: April 1999 (10.03 RPG), O-U-T: 174-142-16, 55.1%
9. July 1999 (10.32 RPG), O-U-T: 181-211-11, 46.2%
Follow up month: August 1999 (9.93 RPG), O-U-T: 198-216-18, 47.8%
10. April 2008 (9.05 RPG), O-U-T: 180-209-14, 46.3%
Follow up month: May 2008 (8.94 RPG), O-U-T: 182-219-21, 45.4%

Again, in looking at the most frequent UNDER months, it seems that the pattern of low scoring results seems to stick around for at least another month, as only one of the follow up months to our Top 10 list resulted in more OVER’s.

Summary
To summarize what we’ve discovered here, clearly June 2009 was a noteworthy month in baseball and for the baseball bettor. However, it would be a mistake to dismiss the low scoring as a fluke, as history has shown that the pattern tends to continue. Therefore, unless oddsmakers completely overadjust and start lowering their posted noticeable by recognizable amounts, I would think twice before betting the OVER in July. Good luck!