It’s grown a reputation by different names than the Coke Zero 400, but Saturday night’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Daytona is always one of the best on the yearly schedule. Formerly known as both the Firecracker 400 and the Pepsi 400, this race is how NASCAR honors Independence Day weekend, and it is well-recognized for fireworks both on and off the track. The combination of night racing, superspeedway action at the circuit’s most famous track, and holiday pageantry make the Coke Zero 400 “must-see TV” and one of NASCAR’s most prestigious events. On top of all that, seven different winners have won the last seven races at Daytona, making Saturday a wide-open event.
To illustrate just how anything is possible at Daytona, the leading driver in terms of career average finish at Daytona is 17.3, by Dale Earnhardt, Jr., easily the highest benchmark of any track on the circuit. Furthermore, of the actives for Saturday, 16 come in with an average finish between 17.3-25.0. Therefore, it would indicate that the luck tends to even out. Twelve entrants own a Daytona win, led by Gordon’s six. Next closest is three by Michael Waltrip. Going back just a few years to the 2006 Daytona 500, as mentioned earlier, there have been seven different winners. Clint Bowyer’s 11.1 average top the circuit, as does Kyle Busch’s 234 laps led during that span. Kyle & brother Kurt also pace the field with four Top 5’s each.
I personally have attended this race three times in my near-decade long fandom of NASCAR. I’m telling you that very few sporting events can match the atmosphere like the Daytona summer race. Not only that, but the racing is breathtaking as well. Restrictor plate racing is a sight to see, and winning at Daytona is a coveted feat for any driver. Thus the action on the track is intense and competitive. The current odds reflect that, as only four drivers are listed in single-digits, led by Kyle Busch & Tony Stewart, each at 6-1. Busch is the defending champion of this race, and Stewart is the last driver to win twice in Daytona. The other top contenders according to oddsmakers are Jeff Gordon, at 8-1, and Earnhardt, Jr. at 17-2. Gordon is a 6-time Daytona winner, and Junior gets the love from oddsmakers at plate tracks every time, regardless of how he is running.
A number of other drivers would have to be given strong consideration however. Among them, Kurt Busch & Jimmie Johnson, both at 10-1, are the most likely to be running up front for most of the race. Matt Kenseth (16-1) & Ryan Newman (20-1), the last two Daytona 500 winners are also expected to compete with the best on Saturday. Finally, Carl Edwards, the runner up in this race a year ago, finally seems to be gaining the confidence it takes to not only run up front at Daytona, but to be there when it matters most, at the end.
Plate racing is a unique skill that some drivers have mastered while others have not. Even some of the series’ less-renowned drivers look forward to these events as a chance to shine. Among those worthy of betting consideration are Brian Vickers (25-1), Jamie McMurray (35-1), David Ragan (40-1), and Michael Waltrip (125-1). Each has demonstrated the ability to run up front at this fantastic facility in recent years.
Some of the regular strongholds who seem to struggle at plate tracks like Daytona are Denny Hamlin (14-1), Juan Montoya (22-1), and Greg Biffle (33-1). Of the three, Biffle owns the best average finish since ’06 at 23.7, and when combined they own not a single Top 5 Daytona finish in 19 starts during that span.
The point standings saw only very small changes last week at New Hampshire, despite the unusual rain-shortened finish that left Joey Logano as the winner. For Logano, it was his first career win, but in truth, he was far from deserving. When looking at the current standings, only four drivers in the Top 14 changed a spot last week with Hamlin and Kyle Busch moving up, and Newman and Biffle falling back one. However, the race for 10th through 14th tightened up dramatically, and now the drivers in those five spots are separated by just 17 points. With the Coke Zero 400 marking the official halfway point of the 2009 season, there are just nine races left until the Chase. None of the drivers in those five spots can afford a bad run. Unfortunately for them, at plate tracks like Daytona & Talladega, that is all too often out of their control.
There are a few things that are important to success at Daytona. Foremost is the ability to draft, while horsepower, and good aerodynamics run a close 2nd and 3rd. Aggressive drivers and rookies tend to be shunned out of the draft by the veterans. If this happens on the race’s last lap, a driver can fall as many as 15 spots in finishing position. The best plate drivers know how and when to make their move. One thing that isn’t all that important at Daytona, or plate tracks in general nowadays, is qualifying. As evidence, Kenseth started 39th here in February. The chance for making up spots quickly is great. However, that said, it is good to demonstrate some horsepower in qualifying and practice. The lineup will be set on Friday at 4:10 PM ET.
It should be a colorful, exciting, and patriotic event as always, as the Sprint Cup Series runs its 18th race of the season, reaching the halfway point. The Green Flag is set to drop on Saturday at 8:10 PM ET on Saturday night. As always, the StatFox NASCAR FoxSheet, Driver Pages, and Matchup Analyzer are here to prepare you for all of the high speed excitement…
|
|
