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New York favored to build commanding lead
By: Staff Writer  - StatFox
Published: 10/19/2009  at  11:26:00 AM
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The New York Yankees were a few innings from being on the brink of their first World Series appearance since 2003. Instead, they’re suddenly locked in a hotly-contested series. With ace CC Sabathia on the mound, New York looks to regain control of the best-of-seven American League championship series Tuesday in Anaheim, where it faces the Los Angeles Angels in Game 4.

Solo homers by Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and Johnny Damon gave the Yankees a 3-0 fifth-inning lead in Monday afternoon’s Game 3, but Los Angeles clawed back to win 5-4 in 11 innings and trim New York’s series advantage to 2-1.

Backup catcher Jeff Mathis’ two-out, game-winning double off Alfredo Aceves scored Howie Kendrick and gave the Angels new life after they dropped the first two games of the ALCS at Yankee Stadium, including a crushing 4-3 loss in 13 innings Saturday.

“Obviously, it’s the biggest hit of my life,” Mathis said. “For Howie to have the at-bat he did right there, and to get on base and put one in the gap to win the game, it’s a pretty good feeling.”

While the Angels snapped their six-game ALCS losing streak, New York suffered its first defeat of this postseason after sweeping Minnesota in three games in a division series, but are still 64-28 in the second half of the season.

“This is the type of series we expected it to be,” Yankees manager Joe Girardi said. “We didn’t really stretch out any of our pitchers too far today out of the bullpen, so I believe our guys will be fine (Tuesday).”
Girardi will give the ball to Sabathia in Game 4, with his workhorse pitching on three days’ rest. The left-hander threw 113 pitches in Friday’s 4-1 Game 1 victory, allowing one run and four hits over eight innings, but his manager won’t hesitate to let him go just as long again.

“We’ll just watch carefully like we would any other start, and make sure that location is there and physically he feels fine and doesn’t have any real long innings,” Girardi said. “As far as the pitch count, I would have no problem letting him go 110, 115 if that’s what it took.” Girardi’s confidence is derived from Yankees having won 22 of last 30 Sabathia starts.

Sabathia, who is 2-0 with a 1.23 ERA in two starts this postseason, said the only change he makes in his routine when working on shortened rest is bypassing his bullpen session. “This late in the season, you know, you tend to cut down on bullpens anyways,” he said. “So, anyway, it doesn’t really make a difference.” Sabathia is 6-7 with a 4.42 ERA in 15 career starts against the Angels. Also of concern is Yankees 1-7 recent road playoff record.

Los Angeles will look to even the series with left-hander Scott Kazmir on the mound, who is 17-3 in home games in the second half of the season over the last two years (Team's Record), however only two have been at Angels Stadium.

Kazmir makes his first start since Oct. 11, Game 3 of the Angels’ division series against Boston. He yielded five runs and five hits over six innings, but did not receive a decision in the 7-6 win - his Angels playoff debut. He went 1-1 with a 4.21 ERA in Tampa Bay’s run to the World Series in 2008.

Acquired from the Rays on Aug. 28, Kazmir went 2-2 with a 1.73 ERA in six regular-season starts for Los Angeles. He is 6-5 with a 2.66 ERA in 14 career starts against the Yankees, including a 3-2 loss Sept. 23, when he yielded three runs in six innings. The team’s the left-hander is 29-12 in night games since the beginning of 2008 season.

A-Rod is on a major roll with four home runs and a career-best nine RBIs this postseason after posting seven and 17 in 39 career playoff games prior to this October. He is 3 for 24 with no home runs lifetime versus Kazmir, but the Angels southpaw won’t be taking him lightly.

“Anyone that’s seeing the ball as good as (Rodriguez) is, it’s tough,” Kazmir said. “You know, you can just tell when hitters are comfortable out there. When they start hitting the ball hard to opposite field, they’re really seeing the ball good and really feeling comfortable out there.”

Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira, meanwhile, has not looked comfortable at the plate after tying for the AL lead with 39 homers and driving in a league-best 122 runs during the regular season. Teixeira went 0 for 3 with two strikeouts Monday, dropping his postseason batting average to .120. Teixeira, however, is 7 for 11 with four doubles in his career against Kazmir.

After going 1 for 7 and leaving eight runners on base in Saturday’s loss, Angels designated hitter Vladimir Guerrero went 2 for 4 on Monday, including a game-tying, two-run homer in the sixth. His teammate Kendrick was a double shy of the cycle Monday, and is 4 for 10 in three home playoff games this postseason.

Bookmaker.com has the Yankees as -135 money line favorites with total of Ov8. New York is 10-4 as road favorites and they are 9-1 with Sabathia pitching against teams with winning record. The lone negative for the Bronx Bombers is 0-6 record as a postseason favorite of -110 to -150.

The Halos are 12-2 as a home underdog of +100 to +125 and extraordinary 14-1 after they had six or more extra base hits this season. Kazmir is 10-1 UNDER vs. good power teams averaging 1.25 or more HR's a game in the second half of the season over the last three seasons (Team's Record) and Sabathia and the Yanks are 11-3 OVER on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season.

Game 4 will start just before 8 Eastern on FOX.

StatFox Power Line – Yankees -146
 

MATT BEARDMORE, STATS writer contributed to this article.
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