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 ATLANTA HAWKS
Head Coach: Mike Woodson
Conference: Eastern
Division: Southeast (2008-09: 2nd)
2008-09 Regular Season Record: 47-35 SU (+6.2 ML Units), 44-36 ATS
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +0.8 (#12 of 30)
StatFox Power Rating: 95 (#15 of 30) 2008-09 Reg. Season Stats & Ranks
Category: Team (Off) (Rank), Opp (Def) (Rank)
Scoring: 98.1 (19), 96.5 (10)
Scoring Margin: +1.6 (12)
Points Per Possession: 1.310 (10), 1.288 (13)
Field Goal Pct.: 45.8% (11), 45.4% (11)
3PT Field Goal Pct.: 36.6% (16), 35.3% (7)
Free Throw Pct.: 73.7% (28), 76.9% (14)
Rebound Differential: -0.94 (20)
Assists/Game: 20.2 (23), 20.8 (13)
Turnovers/Game: 12.2 (7), 12.9 (19) 2008-09 Situational Records: W-L (Pct)
Overall ATS: 48-42 (53%)
at Home ATS: 26-20 (57%)
on Road ATS: 22-22 (50%)
vs. East ATS: 31-31 (50%)
vs. West ATS: 17-11 (61%)
vs. Division ATS: 11-12 (48%)
as Favorite ATS: 25-24 (51%)
as Underdog ATS: 22-18 (55%)
in Playoffs ATS: 4-6 (40%)
Over-Under: 40-50 (44%) Offseason Player Movement
Additions: SG Jamal Crawford, PF Joe Smith, PG Jeff Teague
Subtractions: PG Speedy Claxton, PF Solomon Jones, PG Acie Law, PG Ronald "Flip" Murray
Projected Starting Lineup: • F Marvin Williams • F Josh Smith • C Al Horford • G Joe Johnson • G Mike Bibby Top StatFox Team Power Trends
ATLANTA is 12-4 ATS at home as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 over L2 seasons
ATLANTA was 11-2 ATS at home after 2+ home games last season
ATLANTA was 16-6 UNDER the total at home when revenging a loss last season
ATLANTA is 19-9 UNDER the total at home vs. division opponents over L3 seasons2009-10 Outlook
Atlanta made big strides last season, winning 47 regular season games, its most since the '97-98 season. The Hawks also won their first playoff series in a decade. While much improved however, this franchise still sits a good notch below the "Big Three" in the East. For 2009-10, the biggest potential lift comes from adding Jamal Crawford to the mix off the bench, and hopefully by staying healthy. The Hawks are a young team that is coming together more and more each season, and slowly but surely building one of the best home court advantages in the NBA. Sportsbook.com odds to win NBA Title: +5000
Sportsbook.com Regular Season Win Prop: Over/Under 45
StatFox Steve's Take: This team is clearly on the rise and having Bibby around for a full season will help the win total. Take OVER.  CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
Head Coach: Larry Brown
Conference: Eastern
Division: Southeast (2008-09: 4th)
2008-09 Regular Season Record: 35-47 SU (-4.8 ML Units), 47-35 ATS
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -1.5 (#20 of 30)
StatFox Power Rating: 93 (#21 of 30) 2008-09 Reg. Season Stats & Ranks
Category: Team (Off) (Rank), Opp (Def) (Rank)
Scoring: 93.6 (30), 94.9 (9)
Scoring Margin: -1.3 (20)
Points Per Possession: 1.250 (27), 1.271 (7)
Field Goal Pct.: 45.5% (18), 45.4% (10)
3PT Field Goal Pct.: 36.6% (15), 36.6% (14)
Free Throw Pct.: 74.1% (27), 75.5% (3)
Rebound Differential: +1.01 (13)
Assists/Game: 21.2 (10), 19.6 (6)
Turnovers/Game: 14.9 (26), 14.1 (8) 2008-09 Situational Records: W-L (Pct)
Overall ATS: 47-35 (57%)
at Home ATS: 24-17 (59%)
on Road ATS: 23-18 (56%)
vs. East ATS: 31-21 (60%)
vs. West ATS: 16-14 (53%)
vs. Division ATS: 11-5 (69%)
as Favorite ATS: 14-11 (56%)
as Underdog ATS: 32-22 (59%)
in Playoffs ATS: 0-0 (0%)
Over-Under: 37-44 (46%) Offseason Player Movement
Additions: C Tyson Chandler, SG Gerald Henderson, PG Ronald "Flip" Murray
Subtractions: PF Juwan Howard, PF Sean May, C Emeka Okafor
Projected Starting Lineup: • F Boris Diaw • F Gerald Wallace • C Tyson Chandler • G Raja Bell • G Raymond Felton Top StatFox Team Power Trends
CHARLOTTE is 3-8 ATS in all games playing with 3 or more days rest over L2 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 17-8 ATS as a home fav of 3 or less over L3 seasons
CHARLOTTE was 24-12 ATS in all games as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 last season
CHARLOTTE is 15-9 ATS at home vs. division opponents over L3 seasons2009-10 Outlook
The Charlotte Bobcats have been making steady improvement as a franchise since joining the NBA back in the 2005. This past year, they challenged for a playoff spot all the way up until the end of March, before losing seven of their final eight games. When you consider that Charlotte also started the season 7-16, it doesn't take a genius to see that they were 27-24 in between the poor start and poor finish. The Bobcats' were also a treat for bettors, going 47-35 ATS on the season. Gone from that team now are Emeka Okafor & Sean May, former lottery picks, and continuing the climb upward will be difficult. Sportsbook.com odds to win NBA Title: +10000
Sportsbook.com Regular Season Win Prop: Over/Under 35.5
StatFox Steve's Take: Come crunch time last season, Charlotte folded like a deck of cards, and I don't believe it solved its offensive woes since. Take UNDER.  MIAMI HEAT
Head Coach: Erik Spoelstra
Conference: Eastern
Division: Southeast (2008-09: 3rd)
2008-09 Regular Season Record: 43-39 SU (+7.7 ML Units), 40-42 ATS
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +0.2 (#13 of 30)
StatFox Power Rating: 99 (#7 of 30) 2008-09 Reg. Season Stats & Ranks
Category: Team (Off) (Rank), Opp (Def) (Rank)
Scoring: 98.3 (18), 98.0 (12)
Scoring Margin: +0.3 (14)
Points Per Possession: 1.291 (18), 1.286 (12)
Field Goal Pct.: 45.7% (16), 45.6% (13)
3PT Field Goal Pct.: 35.7% (22), 38.9% (28)
Free Throw Pct.: 75.4% (23), 77.1% (18)
Rebound Differential: -3.00 (26)
Assists/Game: 20.4 (18), 20.1 (10)
Turnovers/Game: 11.9 (4), 14.6 (6) 2008-09 Situational Records: W-L (Pct)
Overall ATS: 43-46 (48%)
at Home ATS: 22-22 (50%)
on Road ATS: 21-24 (47%)
vs. East ATS: 29-30 (49%)
vs. West ATS: 14-16 (47%)
vs. Division ATS: 11-12 (48%)
as Favorite ATS: 19-17 (53%)
as Underdog ATS: 23-27 (46%)
in Playoffs ATS: 3-4 (43%)
Over-Under: 47-41 (53%) Offseason Player Movement
Additions: SF Quentin Richardson
Subtractions: SG Jamario Moon
Projected Starting Lineup: • F Udonis Haslem • F James Jones • C Jermaine O'Neal • G Dwyane Wade • G Mario Chalmers Top StatFox Team Power Trends
MIAMI is 3-16 ATS at home after 2+ road games over L2 seasons
MIAMI is 13-5 UNDER the total at home when the total is 200-209.5 over L3 seasons
MIAMI is 14-7 ATS on the road as a dog of 10 or more over L2 seasons
MIAMI was 15-7 ATS at home after a loss last season2009-10 Outlook
The Heat returned to the postseason after a miserable 2008 season, improving from 15-67 to 43-39 in the first year under Erik Spoelstra. However, they couldn't hold on to a 2-1 series lead in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs, bowing to Atlanta in seven games. Dwyane Wade was sensational in returning from an injury-hampered 2008 campaign to carry Miami, however, he got little help. Things got worse in the offseason with the personal issues of last year's #1 pick Michael Beasley, wo didn't live up to billing in his rookie year anyway. 2009-10 is a big season for this franchise to show well, with Wade set to hit the free agent market right after. Sportsbook.com odds to win NBA Title: +4000
Sportsbook.com Regular Season Win Prop: Over/Under 41
StatFox Steve's Take: Despite having very little roster movement since May, this win prop is still a tough one. O'neal & Beasley are the key. If they improve, Miami wins 45+. If not, UNDER.  ORLANDO MAGIC
Head Coach: Stan Van Gundy
Conference: Eastern
Division: Southeast (2008-09: 1st)
2008-09 Regular Season Record: 59-23 SU (+3.6 ML Units), 50-32 ATS
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: +6.4 (#4 of 30)
StatFox Power Rating: 103 (#4 of 30) 2008-09 Reg. Season Stats & Ranks
Category: Team (Off) (Rank), Opp (Def) (Rank)
Scoring: 101.0 (10), 94.4 (6)
Scoring Margin: +6.7 (4)
Points Per Possession: 1.315 (9), 1.215 (1)
Field Goal Pct.: 45.6% (17), 43.3% (3)
3PT Field Goal Pct.: 38.1% (7), 34.2% (2)
Free Throw Pct.: 71.5% (30), 75.5% (4)
Rebound Differential: +1.40 (9)
Assists/Game: 19.4 (29), 18.1 (2)
Turnovers/Game: 13.5 (15), 12.5 (25) 2008-09 Situational Records: W-L (Pct)
Overall ATS: 62-44 (58%)
at Home ATS: 29-24 (55%)
on Road ATS: 33-20 (62%)
vs. East ATS: 40-31 (56%)
vs. West ATS: 22-13 (63%)
vs. Division ATS: 11-5 (69%)
as Favorite ATS: 43-36 (54%)
as Underdog ATS: 19-8 (70%)
in Playoffs ATS: 12-12 (50%)
Over-Under: 45-59 (43%) Offseason Player Movement
Additions: SF Matt Barnes, PF Brandon Bass, SG Vince Carter, PG Jason Williams
Subtractions: PG Rafer Alston, SG Courtney Lee, SF Hedo Turkoglu
Projected Starting Lineup: • F Mickael Pietrus • F Rashard Lewis • C Dwight Howard • G Vince Carter • G Jameer Nelson Top StatFox Team Power Trends
ORLANDO is 21-9 UNDER the total at home as a favorite of 10 or more over L3 seasons
ORLANDO is 11-5 ATS on the road vs. division opponents over L2 seasons
ORLANDO is 25-11 ATS on the road when revenging a loss over L2 seasons
ORLANDO is 26-11 ATS at home after a loss over L2 seasons2009-10 Outlook
Free agency played a big role in Orlando's offseason, coming off the NBA Finals loss to the Lakers last June. It wasn't that the Magic wanted to change, it was more like their hand was forced. After clutch scoring Hedo Turkolgu left for Toronto, they were forced to trade budding star Courtney Lee to the Nets for Vince Carter. It is a move that is likely to eliminate them from finals consideration again in '10, since Turkoglu & Lee brought defense & passing capabilities that have never been Carter's strength. On a good note, again, this team did make the finals after a 59-23 regular season, covered 58% of tis games ATS, and Dwight Howard has become a beast. Sportsbook.com odds to win NBA Title: +1200
Sportsbook.com Regular Season Win Prop: Over/Under 58
StatFox Steve's Take: Coming from a guy that has never been a big Vince Carter fan when it comes to winning games, I believe Orlando took two steps back this offseason. Max=54 wins.  WASHINGTON WIZARDS
Head Coach: Flip Saunders
Conference: Eastern
Division: Southeast (2008-09: 5th)
2008-09 Regular Season Record: 19-63 SU (-30.3 ML Units), 31-48 ATS
StatFox Outplay Factor Rating: -7.3 (#28 of 30)
StatFox Power Rating: 89 (#27 of 30) 2008-09 Reg. Season Stats & Ranks
Category: Team (Off) (Rank), Opp (Def) (Rank)
Scoring: 96.1 (25), 103.5 (24)
Scoring Margin: -7.5 (28)
Points Per Possession: 1.255 (26), 1.365 (29)
Field Goal Pct.: 45.0% (23), 48.2% (29)
3PT Field Goal Pct.: 33.0% (29), 38.7% (27)
Free Throw Pct.: 76.7% (16), 75.9% (7)
Rebound Differential: -0.83 (19)
Assists/Game: 20.0 (25), 24.6 (30)
Turnovers/Game: 13.5 (16), 13.4 (16) 2008-09 Situational Records: W-L (Pct)
Overall ATS: 31-48 (39%)
at Home ATS: 16-25 (39%)
on Road ATS: 15-23 (39%)
vs. East ATS: 18-32 (36%)
vs. West ATS: 13-16 (45%)
vs. Division ATS: 3-13 (19%)
as Favorite ATS: 4-11 (27%)
as Underdog ATS: 27-37 (42%)
in Playoffs ATS: 0-0 (0%)
Over-Under: 40-41 (49%) Offseason Player Movement
Additions: PG Randy Foye, SG Mike Miller, C Fabricio Oberto
Subtractions: PF Darius Songaila, C Etan Thomas
Projected Starting Lineup: • F Antawn Jamison • F Caron Butler • C Brendan Haywood • G Mike Miller • G Gilbert Arenas Top StatFox Team Power Trends
WASHINGTON is 4-19 ATS at home vs. division opponents over L3 seasons
WASHINGTON was 14-7 UNDER the total on the road vs. winning teams last season
WASHINGTON is 35-20 OVER the total at home after a win over L3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 15-8 ATS in all games as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 over L2 seasons2009-10 Outlook
Agent Zero, better known as Gilbert Arenas, missed the 2008-09 season and the results were predictable, 19 wins, only 39% ATS. Eddie Jordan was ousted as Head Coach only 11 games into the season at 1-10 and the rest of the year was simply playing out the string. Some favorable things are in place for a rebound though. First, Arenas is back. Second, sharp shooter Mike Miller has brought his dead-eye to the nation's capitol. Finally, the Wizards have made a big splash in the coaching ranks, turning to Flip Saunders, who boasts a rich resume with Minnesota & Detroit. This team figures to be taken seriously once again. Sportsbook.com odds to win NBA Title: +5000
Sportsbook.com Regular Season Win Prop: Over/Under 41.5
StatFox Steve's Take: The "Big Three" of Arenas, Butler, and Jamison, and Saunders is sure to expect more on the defensive end than Washington has been giving. Slight lean OVER.
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